Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#16
Expected Predictive Rating+12.1#46
Pace74.8#48
Improvement+0.0#187

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#24
First Shot+4.2#65
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#14
Layup/Dunks-2.3#263
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#30
Freethrows+1.8#80
Improvement-1.1#276

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#17
First Shot+6.0#26
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#91
Layups/Dunks+6.7#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-8.0#364
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#36
Freethrows+3.2#18
Improvement+1.1#98
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
#1 Seed 3.5% 4.3% 1.6%
Top 2 Seed 10.4% 12.9% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 32.7% 38.3% 21.0%
Top 6 Seed 56.3% 63.0% 42.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.3% 91.2% 79.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.5% 89.8% 76.9%
Average Seed 5.6 5.3 6.3
.500 or above 95.0% 97.4% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 87.0% 79.4%
Conference Champion 13.6% 15.3% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four3.8% 3.0% 5.4%
First Round85.6% 89.9% 76.7%
Second Round63.9% 68.9% 53.2%
Sweet Sixteen33.2% 37.1% 25.1%
Elite Eight15.3% 17.5% 10.7%
Final Four6.9% 8.0% 4.4%
Championship Game2.9% 3.5% 1.8%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.7%

Next Game: Missouri (Neutral) - 67.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 10
Quad 26 - 214 - 12
Quad 32 - 016 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 322   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 99%     1 - 0 +32.9 +17.5 +8.1
  Nov 08, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 98%     2 - 0 +23.4 +17.0 +7.3
  Nov 13, 2024 166   Oakland W 66-54 95%     3 - 0 +8.5 -6.1 +14.9
  Nov 20, 2024 7   Alabama L 87-100 37%     3 - 1 +5.5 +8.4 -1.1
  Nov 23, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-40 99%     4 - 1 +30.0 +2.2 +26.0
  Nov 25, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-34 97%     5 - 1 +50.4 +20.0 +31.6
  Nov 28, 2024 29   Arkansas W 90-77 59%     6 - 1 +25.8 +21.2 +4.3
  Dec 06, 2024 59   @ Northwestern L 66-70 OT 61%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +8.2 -3.2 +11.6
  Dec 10, 2024 35   Wisconsin W 86-80 72%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +15.1 +10.4 +4.4
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Tennessee L 64-66 42%     7 - 3 +15.0 +5.7 +9.2
  Dec 22, 2024 51   Missouri W 81-76 68%    
  Dec 29, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 91-59 99.9%   
  Jan 02, 2025 23   @ Oregon L 75-77 43%    
  Jan 05, 2025 96   @ Washington W 79-73 73%    
  Jan 08, 2025 31   Penn St. W 83-78 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 80   USC W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 14, 2025 46   @ Indiana W 80-79 55%    
  Jan 19, 2025 14   @ Michigan St. L 73-76 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 19   Maryland W 79-75 63%    
  Jan 26, 2025 59   Northwestern W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 52   @ Nebraska W 77-75 57%    
  Feb 02, 2025 39   Ohio St. W 78-72 72%    
  Feb 05, 2025 62   @ Rutgers W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 114   @ Minnesota W 73-64 78%    
  Feb 11, 2025 17   UCLA W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 14   Michigan St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 18, 2025 35   @ Wisconsin L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 2   Duke L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 43   Iowa W 87-80 74%    
  Mar 02, 2025 20   @ Michigan L 76-78 42%    
  Mar 07, 2025 22   Purdue W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.6 4.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 13.6 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 4.4 4.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.8 1.4 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 5.3 1.8 0.1 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 2.9 0.3 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 4.2 0.8 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.3 1.9 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.3 3.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.4 1.1 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.3 0.7 0.0 3.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 1.7 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.4 7.0 9.9 12.7 14.4 14.6 12.8 9.6 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 98.5% 1.0    1.0 0.0
17-3 91.2% 2.8    2.3 0.5 0.0
16-4 70.1% 4.4    2.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 37.6% 3.6    1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.9% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.6% 13.6 7.4 4.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 42.7% 57.3% 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.1% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.1% 100.0% 32.5% 67.5% 1.9 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 6.2% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 2.5 1.0 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.6% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 3.3 0.5 1.8 3.4 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 12.8% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 4.2 0.2 0.8 2.9 3.8 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 99.8% 12.0% 87.8% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.8 3.9 3.4 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 14.4% 99.3% 7.9% 91.4% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.5 3.6 3.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 12.7% 95.9% 5.3% 90.7% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.9 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.4 0.5 95.7%
10-10 9.9% 85.2% 4.0% 81.3% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.0 1.5 84.6%
9-11 7.0% 54.4% 1.8% 52.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.2 3.2 53.6%
8-12 4.4% 21.7% 1.2% 20.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.4 20.7%
7-13 2.4% 3.3% 0.5% 2.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.8%
6-14 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 1.0 0.4%
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 87.3% 12.0% 75.3% 5.6 3.5 7.0 10.6 11.7 12.1 11.4 10.3 7.6 5.0 4.2 3.7 0.3 12.7 85.5%