Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#20
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#95
Pace72.8#90
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#39
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
#1 Seed 3.7% 7.0% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 9.6% 16.3% 6.2%
Top 4 Seed 25.4% 37.6% 19.2%
Top 6 Seed 42.4% 56.8% 35.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.3% 84.7% 66.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.6% 82.7% 63.3%
Average Seed 5.9 5.3 6.3
.500 or above 85.5% 93.7% 81.4%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 79.9% 67.9%
Conference Champion 12.2% 16.7% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.2% 2.8%
First Four3.9% 3.2% 4.2%
First Round70.5% 83.2% 64.1%
Second Round49.4% 61.6% 43.2%
Sweet Sixteen24.5% 33.3% 20.0%
Elite Eight11.3% 16.2% 8.9%
Final Four5.1% 7.4% 3.9%
Championship Game2.1% 3.2% 1.6%
National Champion0.9% 1.3% 0.6%

Next Game: Alabama (Neutral) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 26 - 213 - 12
Quad 32 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 336   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 98%     1 - 0 +31.4 +15.7 +8.5
  Nov 08, 2024 293   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 97%     2 - 0 +22.1 +15.4 +7.6
  Nov 13, 2024 186   Oakland W 66-54 94%     3 - 0 +7.7 -7.0 +14.9
  Nov 20, 2024 7   Alabama L 80-85 34%    
  Nov 23, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 89-58 99.7%   
  Nov 25, 2024 279   Arkansas Little Rock W 88-66 98%    
  Nov 28, 2024 19   Arkansas L 76-77 48%    
  Dec 06, 2024 50   @ Northwestern W 72-71 51%    
  Dec 10, 2024 38   Wisconsin W 75-70 68%    
  Dec 14, 2024 9   Tennessee L 74-75 47%    
  Dec 22, 2024 71   Missouri W 78-73 68%    
  Dec 29, 2024 342   Chicago St. W 90-63 99%    
  Jan 02, 2025 39   @ Oregon L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 05, 2025 79   @ Washington W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 08, 2025 36   Penn St. W 82-77 66%    
  Jan 11, 2025 65   USC W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 14, 2025 24   @ Indiana L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 19, 2025 27   @ Michigan St. L 73-76 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 31   Maryland W 74-70 63%    
  Jan 26, 2025 50   Northwestern W 74-68 71%    
  Jan 30, 2025 67   @ Nebraska W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 02, 2025 17   Ohio St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 37   @ Rutgers L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 88   @ Minnesota W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 11, 2025 30   UCLA W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 15, 2025 27   Michigan St. W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 18, 2025 38   @ Wisconsin L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 22, 2025 6   Duke L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 25, 2025 45   Iowa W 87-81 70%    
  Mar 02, 2025 25   @ Michigan L 74-77 41%    
  Mar 07, 2025 15   Purdue W 77-75 56%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.4 3.2 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.2 12.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.1 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 10.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.6 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 6.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.7 1.3 0.1 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 2.4 0.2 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 5.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.9 0.1 4.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.3 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.2 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.3 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.9 6.7 8.9 10.3 10.9 11.1 10.8 9.4 7.8 5.2 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.6% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 94.8% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 84.0% 3.1    2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 61.4% 3.2    1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 31.0% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.3 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.0% 49.0% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.8% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.7 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.6% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.1 1.1 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.2% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 2.8 0.7 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.8% 99.9% 17.7% 82.2% 3.7 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 9.4% 99.8% 13.6% 86.2% 4.7 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 10.8% 98.9% 10.2% 88.7% 5.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 2.4 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.8%
12-8 11.1% 96.5% 5.7% 90.8% 6.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.4 96.3%
11-9 10.9% 89.2% 3.2% 86.0% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.2 88.9%
10-10 10.3% 70.9% 2.2% 68.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.0 70.2%
9-11 8.9% 42.7% 1.3% 41.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.1 41.9%
8-12 6.7% 16.2% 0.6% 15.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 5.6 15.7%
7-13 4.9% 4.3% 0.2% 4.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.7 4.1%
6-14 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.2%
5-15 2.1% 2.1
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 72.3% 8.7% 63.5% 5.9 3.7 5.9 7.7 8.1 8.5 8.5 8.1 7.2 5.5 4.5 3.9 0.7 0.0 27.7 69.6%