Illinois
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.7#9
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#25
Pace78.6#12
Improvement+2.3#81

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#17
First Shot+7.3#24
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#64
Layup/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#16
Freethrows+2.3#60
Improvement+0.7#137

Defense
Total Defense+9.3#9
First Shot+7.1#16
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#30
Layups/Dunks+7.0#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#14
Freethrows+2.6#35
Improvement+1.6#94
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.8% 0.3%
#1 Seed 11.3% 13.5% 4.7%
Top 2 Seed 32.9% 38.0% 17.7%
Top 4 Seed 77.6% 82.8% 62.3%
Top 6 Seed 95.6% 97.5% 89.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 100.0% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 100.0% 99.2%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 4.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.6% 96.8%
Conference Champion 13.3% 16.3% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round91.1% 92.5% 87.0%
Sweet Sixteen61.0% 63.3% 54.2%
Elite Eight32.7% 34.2% 28.5%
Final Four16.1% 16.9% 13.6%
Championship Game7.6% 8.1% 6.0%
National Champion3.5% 3.8% 2.6%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 210 - 8
Quad 27 - 117 - 9
Quad 31 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 344   Eastern Illinois W 112-67 99%     1 - 0 +30.5 +16.7 +6.6
  Nov 08, 2024 263   SIU Edwardsville W 90-58 99%     2 - 0 +23.5 +17.2 +7.1
  Nov 13, 2024 178   Oakland W 66-54 97%     3 - 0 +8.4 -7.6 +16.3
  Nov 20, 2024 7   Alabama L 87-100 47%     3 - 1 +6.4 +8.5 -0.3
  Nov 23, 2024 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 87-40 99.7%    4 - 1 +28.9 +2.0 +25.2
  Nov 25, 2024 238   Arkansas Little Rock W 92-34 98%     5 - 1 +50.9 +21.0 +31.2
  Nov 28, 2024 46   Arkansas W 90-77 77%     6 - 1 +24.1 +21.1 +2.6
  Dec 06, 2024 55   @ Northwestern L 66-70 OT 71%     6 - 2 0 - 1 +8.8 -3.3 +12.4
  Dec 10, 2024 18   Wisconsin W 86-80 71%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +19.1 +13.1 +5.6
  Dec 14, 2024 8   Tennessee L 64-66 60%     7 - 3 +14.0 +4.8 +9.1
  Dec 22, 2024 29   Missouri W 80-77 70%     8 - 3 +16.3 +6.9 +9.3
  Dec 29, 2024 357   Chicago St. W 117-64 99.6%    9 - 3 +36.1 +26.6 +3.7
  Jan 02, 2025 28   @ Oregon W 109-77 60%     10 - 3 2 - 1 +48.1 +32.7 +12.1
  Jan 05, 2025 95   @ Washington W 81-77 83%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +12.7 +9.5 +3.0
  Jan 08, 2025 51   Penn St. W 91-52 85%     12 - 3 4 - 1 +46.8 +9.8 +32.3
  Jan 11, 2025 61   USC L 72-82 87%     12 - 4 4 - 2 -3.7 -3.8 +0.9
  Jan 14, 2025 56   @ Indiana W 94-69 72%     13 - 4 5 - 2 +37.7 +19.8 +15.6
  Jan 19, 2025 12   @ Michigan St. L 78-80 45%     13 - 5 5 - 3 +17.9 +11.7 +6.3
  Jan 23, 2025 25   Maryland W 83-76 75%    
  Jan 26, 2025 55   Northwestern W 78-67 87%    
  Jan 30, 2025 52   @ Nebraska W 80-75 69%    
  Feb 02, 2025 36   Ohio St. W 82-73 80%    
  Feb 05, 2025 66   @ Rutgers W 83-75 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 98   @ Minnesota W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 11, 2025 31   UCLA W 77-69 79%    
  Feb 15, 2025 12   Michigan St. W 80-76 67%    
  Feb 18, 2025 18   @ Wisconsin W 80-79 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 1   Duke L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 25, 2025 50   Iowa W 94-83 85%    
  Mar 02, 2025 11   @ Michigan L 81-82 44%    
  Mar 07, 2025 10   Purdue W 78-74 65%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.2 5.9 2.7 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 5.8 9.9 3.4 0.2 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 4.7 10.8 4.8 0.2 20.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.5 9.4 5.5 0.5 17.9 4th
5th 1.1 5.7 5.0 0.6 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 2.6 3.3 0.7 6.8 6th
7th 0.6 2.4 1.0 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.3 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.4 13.0 20.5 23.3 19.3 9.5 2.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 92.0% 2.7    1.9 0.7 0.0
16-4 62.0% 5.9    2.5 2.6 0.8 0.0
15-5 21.8% 4.2    0.7 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1
14-6 2.4% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 5.2 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.9% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.4 1.8 0.9 0.1 100.0%
16-4 9.5% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.7 4.0 4.2 1.2 0.1 100.0%
15-5 19.3% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 2.3 3.6 8.0 5.9 1.6 0.2 100.0%
14-6 23.3% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.0 1.4 6.0 8.8 5.6 1.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 20.5% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 3.7 0.5 2.1 6.0 7.1 3.6 1.1 0.1 100.0%
12-8 13.0% 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 4.5 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.1 3.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 100.0%
11-9 7.4% 100.0% 7.6% 92.4% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 3.2% 99.4% 4.7% 94.6% 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
9-11 0.9% 90.6% 2.4% 88.2% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 90.4%
8-12 0.2% 73.9% 73.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 73.9%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.8% 21.4% 78.5% 3.4 11.3 21.6 24.6 20.1 11.6 6.4 2.6 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 85.5 14.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.4 67.9 28.6 3.6