Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#29
Expected Predictive Rating+14.6#33
Pace74.7#51
Improvement-0.8#242

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#42
First Shot+6.3#37
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#193
Layup/Dunks+6.4#19
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#145
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#199
Freethrows+0.5#153
Improvement+1.7#54

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#28
First Shot+3.9#71
After Offensive Rebounds+2.7#23
Layups/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#35
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#271
Freethrows+2.9#26
Improvement-2.4#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 3.1% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 15.8% 15.9% 4.2%
Top 6 Seed 35.7% 36.0% 12.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 73.9% 74.1% 51.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 73.4% 73.6% 51.4%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 8.0
.500 or above 94.1% 94.3% 78.1%
.500 or above in Conference 53.9% 54.1% 35.1%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.4% 10.0%
First Four6.3% 6.3% 9.8%
First Round70.8% 71.1% 44.9%
Second Round45.6% 45.8% 26.8%
Sweet Sixteen19.5% 19.6% 7.5%
Elite Eight7.7% 7.7% 2.8%
Final Four3.0% 3.0% 0.8%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 98.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 11
Quad 25 - 111 - 12
Quad 32 - 013 - 12
Quad 47 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 107   Lipscomb W 76-60 86%     1 - 0 +17.2 -0.3 +16.5
  Nov 09, 2024 12   Baylor L 67-72 38%     1 - 1 +10.9 +3.8 +6.8
  Nov 13, 2024 127   Troy W 65-49 89%     2 - 1 +15.2 -5.9 +21.4
  Nov 18, 2024 264   Pacific W 91-72 97%     3 - 1 +10.4 +9.0 +0.0
  Nov 22, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock W 79-67 96%     4 - 1 +4.4 -1.5 +4.9
  Nov 25, 2024 358   Maryland Eastern Shore W 109-35 99%     5 - 1 +57.0 +18.9 +32.3
  Nov 28, 2024 16   Illinois L 77-90 41%     5 - 2 +2.1 +9.1 -6.7
  Dec 03, 2024 91   @ Miami (FL) W 76-73 64%     6 - 2 +12.0 +5.7 +6.4
  Dec 07, 2024 234   Texas San Antonio W 75-60 96%     7 - 2 +8.1 +0.2 +8.5
  Dec 10, 2024 20   Michigan W 89-87 44%     8 - 2 +16.4 +15.1 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2024 342   Central Arkansas W 82-57 99%     9 - 2 +10.7 +9.6 +3.1
  Dec 21, 2024 313   N.C. A&T W 94-70 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 166   Oakland W 76-60 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 4   @ Tennessee L 66-76 17%    
  Jan 08, 2025 26   Mississippi W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 11, 2025 8   Florida L 79-81 42%    
  Jan 14, 2025 60   @ LSU W 77-76 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 51   @ Missouri L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 22, 2025 40   Georgia W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 37   Oklahoma W 77-73 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 11   @ Kentucky L 80-88 25%    
  Feb 05, 2025 33   @ Texas L 73-76 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 7   Alabama L 83-86 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 60   LSU W 80-73 73%    
  Feb 15, 2025 24   @ Texas A&M L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 19, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 74-87 12%    
  Feb 22, 2025 51   Missouri W 81-75 70%    
  Feb 26, 2025 33   Texas W 76-73 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 69   @ South Carolina W 73-71 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 80-79 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 78-75 61%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.9 4.0 1.0 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 5.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.9 3.5 0.3 9.4 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 5.0 0.9 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.1 2.3 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.2 3.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 4.4 1.3 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.3 0.1 6.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.0 0.1 4.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.1 0.1 3.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.2 5.8 8.9 11.8 14.2 14.9 13.3 10.6 7.3 4.4 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 84.7% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 64.5% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
14-4 31.7% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.3% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.9% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 2.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.2% 100.0% 9.9% 90.1% 2.7 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 4.4% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 3.5 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.3% 100.0% 5.2% 94.8% 4.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.6% 99.9% 3.1% 96.8% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.3 2.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 13.3% 99.4% 1.7% 97.7% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.6 3.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 14.9% 97.2% 1.2% 96.0% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 3.7 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 97.1%
8-10 14.2% 85.6% 0.5% 85.1% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 3.3 3.0 1.5 0.0 2.1 85.5%
7-11 11.8% 53.8% 0.3% 53.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.0 0.3 5.4 53.7%
6-12 8.9% 20.8% 0.1% 20.7% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.1 20.7%
5-13 5.8% 1.7% 0.0% 1.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.7 1.7%
4-14 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 3.2
3-15 1.4% 1.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 73.9% 1.9% 72.0% 6.7 0.8 2.2 5.2 7.6 9.6 10.3 10.0 8.6 7.0 5.8 6.0 0.7 0.0 26.1 73.4%