Arkansas
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.5#19
Expected Predictive Rating+9.3#48
Pace74.0#70
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#40
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.8#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
#1 Seed 3.1% 3.1% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 8.2% 8.3% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 22.9% 23.2% 5.6%
Top 6 Seed 39.5% 39.9% 17.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.4% 71.8% 48.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.7% 70.0% 47.2%
Average Seed 6.1 6.1 7.4
.500 or above 92.2% 92.5% 72.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.1% 70.4% 50.2%
Conference Champion 7.1% 7.2% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 2.2% 7.1%
First Four4.4% 4.4% 5.1%
First Round69.4% 69.7% 46.0%
Second Round48.5% 48.8% 26.2%
Sweet Sixteen24.4% 24.6% 9.1%
Elite Eight11.4% 11.5% 3.6%
Final Four5.0% 5.0% 1.8%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.9%
National Champion1.0% 1.0% 0.2%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 210 - 11
Quad 34 - 014 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 143   Lipscomb W 76-60 92%     1 - 0 +14.2 -4.8 +18.1
  Nov 09, 2024 13   Baylor L 67-72 44%     1 - 1 +10.1 +4.3 +5.5
  Nov 13, 2024 121   Troy W 65-49 89%     2 - 1 +16.0 -4.0 +20.4
  Nov 18, 2024 284   Pacific W 86-63 99%    
  Nov 22, 2024 279   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-63 98%    
  Nov 25, 2024 360   Maryland Eastern Shore W 88-57 99.8%   
  Nov 28, 2024 20   Illinois W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 03, 2024 33   @ Miami (FL) L 76-77 46%    
  Dec 07, 2024 238   Texas San Antonio W 88-68 96%    
  Dec 10, 2024 25   Michigan W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 14, 2024 346   Central Arkansas W 89-60 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 300   N.C. A&T W 89-65 98%    
  Dec 30, 2024 186   Oakland W 80-62 94%    
  Jan 04, 2025 9   @ Tennessee L 70-76 29%    
  Jan 08, 2025 61   Mississippi W 76-68 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 21   Florida W 82-79 62%    
  Jan 14, 2025 48   @ LSU W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 71   @ Missouri W 75-72 59%    
  Jan 22, 2025 68   Georgia W 80-72 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 52   Oklahoma W 76-69 73%    
  Feb 01, 2025 12   @ Kentucky L 77-83 30%    
  Feb 05, 2025 23   @ Texas L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 08, 2025 7   Alabama L 80-81 46%    
  Feb 12, 2025 48   LSU W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 28   @ Texas A&M L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 19, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 73-82 23%    
  Feb 22, 2025 71   Missouri W 78-69 77%    
  Feb 26, 2025 23   Texas W 75-71 62%    
  Mar 01, 2025 64   @ South Carolina W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 83   @ Vanderbilt W 78-75 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 26   Mississippi St. W 78-74 63%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 7.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.2 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 9.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 3.8 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 9.7 3rd
4th 0.6 3.5 4.2 1.3 0.1 9.6 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.9 1.9 0.2 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.5 3.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.2 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.4 2.1 0.2 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.5 0.0 6.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.0 0.0 5.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.7 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.4 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.3 8.0 10.0 12.0 12.9 12.6 11.4 8.8 6.3 3.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.5    0.5 0.1
16-2 86.9% 1.5    1.1 0.4 0.0
15-3 63.4% 2.4    1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0
14-4 29.4% 1.9    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.1% 7.1 3.5 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 28.1% 71.9% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.7% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 3.7% 99.9% 21.5% 78.4% 2.2 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-4 6.3% 100.0% 16.3% 83.7% 3.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.8% 99.8% 12.5% 87.4% 4.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-6 11.4% 99.4% 8.4% 90.9% 5.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 2.7 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-7 12.6% 96.5% 4.6% 92.0% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.4%
10-8 12.9% 90.1% 3.1% 87.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.1 1.3 89.8%
9-9 12.0% 74.6% 1.3% 73.3% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.3 0.2 3.0 74.3%
8-10 10.0% 46.0% 0.9% 45.1% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 0.3 5.4 45.5%
7-11 8.0% 16.1% 0.2% 15.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 6.7 15.9%
6-12 5.3% 4.6% 4.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1 4.6%
5-13 3.3% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.0%
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.9% 0.9
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.4% 5.8% 65.6% 6.1 3.1 5.1 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.3 6.0 5.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 28.6 69.7%