Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#22
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#24
Pace74.4#65
Improvement+1.6#64

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#31
First Shot+5.7#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#57
Layup/Dunks+3.2#76
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#253
Freethrows+4.9#9
Improvement+0.8#114

Defense
Total Defense+7.1#22
First Shot+10.9#6
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#345
Layups/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.5#25
Freethrows+3.0#28
Improvement+0.8#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.9% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 6.3% 6.4% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 26.6% 27.2% 11.0%
Top 6 Seed 51.3% 52.1% 28.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.0% 81.7% 61.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 79.8% 80.5% 59.5%
Average Seed 5.9 5.8 7.0
.500 or above 91.4% 92.0% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 69.2% 69.8% 51.2%
Conference Champion 7.7% 7.9% 2.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.7% 3.7%
First Four5.3% 5.2% 7.9%
First Round78.7% 79.4% 56.2%
Second Round57.6% 58.4% 34.6%
Sweet Sixteen27.2% 27.6% 15.1%
Elite Eight10.9% 11.1% 6.1%
Final Four4.0% 4.1% 2.0%
Championship Game1.4% 1.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 96.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 11
Quad 24 - 112 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 201 Southern W 109-77 96%     1 - 0 +26.5 +20.3 +1.8
  Sat, Nov 8 10 @Michigan St. L 66-69 25%     1 - 1 +19.0 +7.5 +11.5
  Tue, Nov 11 273 Central Arkansas W 93-56 98%     2 - 1 +27.9 +11.9 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 14 228 Samford W 79-75 97%     3 - 1 -3.0 -0.7 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 18 107 Winthrop W 84-83 90%     4 - 1 +2.3 +8.1 -5.9
  Fri, Nov 21 312 Jackson St. W 115-61 98%     5 - 1 +42.6 +29.6 +8.7
  Thu, Nov 27 3 Duke L 71-80 25%     5 - 2 +12.9 +8.9 +4.1
  Wed, Dec 3 14 Louisville W 89-80 51%     6 - 2 +23.9 +14.7 +8.5
  Sat, Dec 6 179 Fresno St. W 88-69 97%    
  Sat, Dec 13 30 Texas Tech W 77-76 55%    
  Tue, Dec 16 199 Queens W 92-72 97%    
  Sat, Dec 20 7 Houston L 67-72 33%    
  Sun, Dec 28 169 James Madison W 86-67 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 16 Tennessee W 77-76 53%    
  Wed, Jan 7 58 @Mississippi W 77-74 59%    
  Sat, Jan 10 20 @Auburn L 78-81 38%    
  Wed, Jan 14 89 South Carolina W 81-69 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 19 @Georgia L 85-88 37%    
  Tue, Jan 20 12 Vanderbilt L 81-82 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 29 LSU W 80-76 65%    
  Tue, Jan 27 41 @Oklahoma W 80-79 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 23 Kentucky W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 81 @Mississippi St. W 81-76 67%    
  Tue, Feb 10 29 @LSU L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 20 Auburn W 81-78 60%    
  Tue, Feb 17 11 @Alabama L 85-92 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 37 Missouri W 82-77 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 38 Texas A&M W 84-78 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 15 @Florida L 76-82 30%    
  Wed, Mar 4 50 Texas W 82-75 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 37 @Missouri L 79-80 48%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 7.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 3.3 2.5 0.5 0.1 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.7 1.2 0.0 8.9 5th
6th 1.1 4.9 2.3 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.7 4.1 0.4 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 4.5 1.4 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.4 2.7 0.2 6.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 3.7 0.8 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 3.2 1.7 0.1 5.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.3 0.3 0.0 4.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.0 2.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.6 8.3 10.8 13.1 13.8 13.1 11.1 8.4 5.4 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 93.6% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
15-3 80.9% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
14-4 44.8% 2.4    0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1
13-5 16.1% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 7.7% 7.7 3.7 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 1.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.8% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 2.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 5.4% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 2.9 0.4 1.3 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.4% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 3.7 0.2 0.8 2.8 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 11.1% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 4.4 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.6 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.1% 99.7% 5.6% 94.1% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.2 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
10-8 13.8% 99.0% 3.6% 95.4% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 4.0 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
9-9 13.1% 95.4% 2.5% 92.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.1 2.7 2.9 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.6 95.3%
8-10 10.8% 76.8% 1.4% 75.4% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 1.7 2.2 1.8 0.1 2.5 76.5%
7-11 8.3% 42.4% 0.4% 42.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.2 4.8 42.2%
6-12 5.6% 12.9% 0.5% 12.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 4.9 12.5%
5-13 3.2% 2.0% 0.2% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1 1.8%
4-14 1.9% 1.9
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 81.0% 6.1% 74.9% 5.9 1.9 4.4 9.1 11.3 12.7 12.0 8.9 6.6 4.9 4.5 4.4 0.3 19.0 79.8%