Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +17.2 #20
Expected Predictive Rating +18.1 #17
Pace 76.3 #29
Improvement +2.7 #57

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #6 A A+ A+ B+ C
Defense #46 A D- C+ A C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #141 1.38 #9 +5.3 #28
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.71 #241 +0.1 #172
Three Pointers 38% #247 1.20 #8 +2.0 #113
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #22 +7.4 #22
Freethrows 19.8 #78 76% #69 15.0 #55
Second Chance 36.0% #44 1.27 #10 0.46 #14
Turnovers 12.3% #6
Total Offense +11.5 #6

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #220 1.10 #101 +1.8 #120
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #137 0.66 #49 +0.6 #149
Three Pointers 41% #184 0.82 #6 +4.1 #39
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #23 +6.4 #24
Freethrows 14.0 #30 67% #13 9.4 #15
Second Chance 27.8% #85 1.37 #365 0.38 #320
Turnovers 17.7% #100
Total Defense +5.7 #46

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #205 -0.4% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.7% #13 -12.2% #18
Possession Length 14.8 #12 18.2 #307
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.35 #1 0.15 #116
Improvement +2.7 #46 +0.0 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.4% 1.7% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 5.9% 7.0% 2.1%
Top 4 Seed 40.1% 44.2% 24.9%
Top 6 Seed 81.4% 84.6% 69.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.4% 96.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.7% 99.3% 96.6%
Average Seed 5.0 4.8 5.7
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.2% 97.9% 89.8%
Conference Champion 20.8% 24.0% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.9% 0.6% 2.1%
First Round98.5% 99.1% 96.1%
Second Round81.1% 83.3% 73.0%
Sweet Sixteen40.8% 42.9% 33.2%
Elite Eight17.1% 18.1% 13.3%
Final Four7.1% 7.6% 5.1%
Championship Game2.8% 3.0% 2.0%
National Champion0.9% 1.0% 0.6%

Next Game: LSU (Home) - 78.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b6 - 29 - 10
Quad 25 - 115 - 11
Quad 32 - 017 - 11
Quad 46 - 023 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 246 Southern W 109 - 77 98% +21  1 - 0 +24 +20 B- B A+ +0 B- F D
 Sat, Nov 8 11 @Michigan St. L 66 - 69 29% -2  1 - 1 +20 +10 C A+ D- +10 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 236 Central Arkansas W 93 - 56 98% +16  2 - 1 +30 +12 A+ D A+ +16 A+ D+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 249 Samford W 79 - 75 98% +8  3 - 1 -4 -2 D+ F C -2 C C- D+
 Tue, Nov 18 130 Winthrop W 84 - 83 95% +1  4 - 1 -0 +8 C A+ A+ -8 D+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 21 325 Jackson St. W 115 - 61 99% +30  5 - 1 +41 +26 A+ A A+ +11 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 27 3 Duke L 71 - 80 31% -1  5 - 2 +13 +9 B+ A- A- +4 A+ F B
 Wed, Dec 3 13 Louisville W 89 - 80 57% +10  6 - 2 +24 +15 C- A+ A+ +8 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 143 Fresno St. W 82 - 58 95% +15  7 - 2 +22 +8 A+ C A+ +13 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 15 Texas Tech W 93 - 86 47% -2  8 - 2 +25 +33 A+ A+ A+ -7 B- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 177 Queens W 108 - 80 97% +20  9 - 2 +24 +15 A+ A+ F +5 A F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 4 Houston L 85 - 94 33% -10  9 - 3 +13 +20 A+ A+ A+ -7 F F C
 Mon, Dec 29 231 James Madison W 103 - 74 98% +17  10 - 3 +22 +25 A+ A+ A -3 D D A
 Sat, Jan 3 22 Tennessee W 86 - 75 64% +1  11 - 3 1 - 0 +25 +15 B- A+ C +9 A A C+
 Wed, Jan 7 62 @Mississippi W 94 - 87 70% +7  12 - 3 2 - 0 +19 +24 A+ A+ A- -6 F A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 27 @Auburn L 73 - 95 48% -15  12 - 4 2 - 1 -4 +5 C D- A+ -8 F F C
 Wed, Jan 14 69 South Carolina W 108 - 74 87% +18  13 - 4 3 - 1 +39 +34 A+ A+ A+ +4 A- C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 24 @Georgia L 76 - 90 44% -10  13 - 5 3 - 2 +5 -0 D+ A+ F +7 B+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 20 21 Vanderbilt W 93 - 68 62% +15  14 - 5 4 - 2 +39 +29 A+ A+ A+ +11 A+ F B
 Sat, Jan 24 43 LSU W 86 - 78 79%
 Tue, Jan 27 57 @Oklahoma W 85 - 81 65%
 Sat, Jan 31 25 Kentucky W 85 - 81 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 76 @Mississippi St. W 85 - 78 73%
 Tue, Feb 10 43 @LSU W 83 - 81 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 27 Auburn W 87 - 82 69%
 Tue, Feb 17 17 @Alabama L 91 - 95 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 17 @Alabama L 91 - 95 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 50 Missouri W 87 - 78 82%
 Wed, Feb 25 34 Texas A&M W 90 - 84 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 10 @Florida L 81 - 87 29%
 Wed, Mar 4 38 Texas W 88 - 81 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 50 @Missouri W 84 - 81 63%
Totals 22 - 10 12 - 7 +17 +12 A A+ A+ +6 A D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.8 7.7 6.1 2.3 0.5 20.8 1st
2nd 0.3 4.8 9.7 5.4 0.9 0.1 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 8.5 4.5 0.4 16.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 6.8 5.0 0.6 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 5.7 0.9 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.9 1.7 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 2.7 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.4 2.1 0.8 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.3 0.1 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 6.3 10.9 17.4 19.7 18.6 13.5 7.0 2.4 0.5 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 97.9% 2.3    2.2 0.2
15-3 86.8% 6.1    4.4 1.6 0.1
14-4 57.0% 7.7    3.2 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.6% 3.8    0.6 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.8% 20.8 10.8 6.7 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.5% 100.0% 40.0% 60.0% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.3 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 100.0%
15-3 7.0% 100.0% 23.2% 76.8% 3.0 0.5 1.6 3.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 13.5% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 3.6 0.2 1.2 4.6 5.2 2.0 0.3 100.0%
13-5 18.6% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 4.3 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.7 6.1 1.8 0.1 100.0%
12-6 19.7% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 7.9 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 17.4% 99.9% 6.6% 93.3% 5.6 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.5 6.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 10.9% 99.6% 5.2% 94.4% 6.4 0.1 0.3 1.7 3.7 3.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 6.3% 97.9% 2.9% 95.1% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 97.9%
8-10 2.7% 86.5% 2.4% 84.0% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.4 86.1%
7-11 1.0% 54.5% 1.0% 53.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 54.0%
6-12 0.2% 17.6% 17.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.6%
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 12.4% 86.4% 5.0 1.2 98.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.7 40.0 48.0 12.0