Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+23.3#2
Expected Predictive Rating+30.2#1
Pace75.2#43
Improvement+3.5#24

Offense
Total Offense+11.2#10
First Shot+10.7#4
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks+7.4#6
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#287
Freethrows+2.0#68
Improvement+0.0#172

Defense
Total Defense+12.1#2
First Shot+8.9#9
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#13
Layups/Dunks+7.5#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#312
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#102
Freethrows+1.4#88
Improvement+3.5#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.5% 16.6% 7.6%
#1 Seed 56.0% 56.1% 34.7%
Top 2 Seed 87.0% 87.1% 72.9%
Top 4 Seed 98.9% 98.9% 95.8%
Top 6 Seed 99.9% 99.9% 99.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.6 2.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.6% 99.3%
Conference Champion 44.6% 44.7% 28.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.9% 98.9% 96.5%
Sweet Sixteen80.3% 80.3% 74.3%
Elite Eight56.5% 56.6% 47.9%
Final Four35.2% 35.2% 25.7%
Championship Game20.1% 20.2% 12.5%
National Champion11.0% 11.0% 8.3%

Next Game: South Dakota St. (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 4
Quad 26 - 020 - 4
Quad 32 - 023 - 4
Quad 47 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 12 Florida W 93-87 70%     1 - 0 +24.0 +16.5 +6.7
  Fri, Nov 7 251 Utah Tech W 93-67 99%     2 - 0 +17.8 +14.7 +2.7
  Tue, Nov 11 289 Northern Arizona W 84-49 99%     3 - 0 +25.3 +6.2 +18.5
  Fri, Nov 14 30 UCLA W 69-65 80%     4 - 0 +18.4 +4.4 +14.2
  Wed, Nov 19 7 @Connecticut W 71-67 46%     5 - 0 +28.4 +18.9 +10.0
  Mon, Nov 24 290 Denver W 103-73 99%     6 - 0 +20.3 +12.5 +5.6
  Sat, Nov 29 243 Norfolk St. W 98-61 99%     7 - 0 +29.2 +16.3 +10.2
  Sat, Dec 6 34 Auburn W 97-68 88%     8 - 0 +39.4 +21.0 +16.7
  Sat, Dec 13 15 Alabama W 96-75 71%     9 - 0 +38.5 +20.3 +16.5
  Tue, Dec 16 204 Abilene Christian W 96-62 99%     10 - 0 +28.2 +17.5 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 20 52 San Diego St. W 68-45 89%     11 - 0 +32.9 +8.1 +27.4
  Mon, Dec 22 269 Bethune-Cookman W 107-71 99%     12 - 0 +27.1 +17.4 +5.6
  Mon, Dec 29 172 South Dakota St. W 92-65 99.5%   
  Sat, Jan 3 111 @Utah W 88-71 94%    
  Wed, Jan 7 58 Kansas St. W 92-75 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 53 @TCU W 78-68 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 71 Arizona St. W 89-70 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 49 @Central Florida W 87-77 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 67 Cincinnati W 83-65 95%    
  Sat, Jan 24 62 West Virginia W 80-62 95%    
  Mon, Jan 26 11 @BYU W 79-78 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 71 @Arizona St. W 86-73 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 55 Oklahoma St. W 93-76 94%    
  Mon, Feb 9 17 @Kansas W 75-72 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 24 Texas Tech W 83-72 84%    
  Wed, Feb 18 11 BYU W 82-75 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 8 @Houston W 72-71 50%    
  Tue, Feb 24 27 @Baylor W 85-80 68%    
  Sat, Feb 28 17 Kansas W 78-69 79%    
  Mon, Mar 2 3 Iowa St. W 80-76 65%    
  Sat, Mar 7 73 @Colorado W 86-73 87%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.9 11.7 15.4 10.2 3.0 44.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.3 7.8 2.4 0.1 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 6.3 5.0 1.0 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 4.3 8.5 13.7 18.8 20.4 17.8 10.3 3.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.0    3.0
17-1 98.9% 10.2    9.4 0.9 0.0
16-2 86.6% 15.4    10.8 4.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 57.1% 11.7    5.2 5.1 1.3 0.1
14-4 20.9% 3.9    0.9 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.6% 44.6 29.3 11.9 2.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.0% 100.0% 53.1% 46.9% 1.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-1 10.3% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.1 9.0 1.3 0.0 100.0%
16-2 17.8% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.2 14.1 3.6 0.0 100.0%
15-3 20.4% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.3 14.0 6.0 0.3 100.0%
14-4 18.8% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.5 10.1 7.6 1.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.7% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.9 4.5 6.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 8.5% 100.0% 16.5% 83.5% 2.3 1.4 3.8 2.7 0.7 0.0 100.0%
11-7 4.3% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 2.9 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.9 0.1 100.0%
10-8 2.0% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.7% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 100.0%
8-10 0.3% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.1% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 31.5% 68.5% 1.6 56.0 31.0 9.0 2.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.1 92.2 7.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 85.1 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 1.1 87.8 11.6 0.6