Connecticut
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.5#5
Expected Predictive Rating+23.8#7
Pace63.2#329
Improvement-0.5#231

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#10
First Shot+9.5#9
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#128
Layup/Dunks+9.5#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#133
Freethrows+0.4#156
Improvement-1.9#325

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#7
First Shot+10.3#7
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#207
Layups/Dunks+4.9#37
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#7
Freethrows-3.6#340
Improvement+1.3#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.8% 7.3% 3.5%
#1 Seed 27.9% 33.1% 20.1%
Top 2 Seed 57.3% 64.9% 45.9%
Top 4 Seed 88.8% 93.1% 82.2%
Top 6 Seed 97.6% 98.7% 96.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.6 2.3 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 99.6%
Conference Champion 65.1% 68.6% 59.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Second Round94.7% 96.0% 92.9%
Sweet Sixteen68.2% 71.4% 63.3%
Elite Eight40.9% 44.3% 35.7%
Final Four21.8% 24.5% 17.7%
Championship Game11.2% 12.9% 8.6%
National Champion5.5% 6.6% 3.7%

Next Game: Florida (Neutral) - 60.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 4
Quad 29 - 119 - 5
Quad 35 - 024 - 6
Quad 44 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 346 New Haven W 79-55 99.6%    1 - 0 +9.5 +6.1 +4.7
  Fri, Nov 7 314 Umass Lowell W 110-47 99%     2 - 0 +51.6 +23.5 +24.0
  Mon, Nov 10 140 Columbia W 89-62 97%     3 - 0 +25.5 +18.9 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 15 8 BYU W 86-84 55%     4 - 0 +21.3 +15.9 +5.3
  Wed, Nov 19 9 Arizona L 67-71 66%     4 - 1 +12.3 +9.1 +2.7
  Sun, Nov 23 295 Bryant W 72-49 99%     5 - 1 +12.5 +1.3 +12.9
  Fri, Nov 28 17 Illinois W 74-61 63%     6 - 1 +30.0 +12.8 +18.0
  Tue, Dec 2 18 @Kansas W 61-56 56%     7 - 1 +24.1 +6.7 +17.9
  Fri, Dec 5 300 East Texas A&M W 83-59 99%     8 - 1 +13.2 +12.5 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 9 15 Florida W 74-71 60%    
  Fri, Dec 12 50 Texas W 79-66 89%    
  Tue, Dec 16 44 Butler W 80-68 87%    
  Sun, Dec 21 121 @DePaul W 77-63 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 77 @Xavier W 76-66 82%    
  Sun, Jan 4 83 Marquette W 80-63 94%    
  Wed, Jan 7 72 @Providence W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 121 DePaul W 80-60 97%    
  Tue, Jan 13 76 @Seton Hall W 71-61 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 85 @Georgetown W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 39 Villanova W 72-61 85%    
  Tue, Jan 27 72 Providence W 85-69 93%    
  Sat, Jan 31 45 @Creighton W 74-68 71%    
  Tue, Feb 3 77 Xavier W 79-63 92%    
  Fri, Feb 6 13 @St. John's L 74-75 49%    
  Wed, Feb 11 44 @Butler W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 85 Georgetown W 81-64 94%    
  Wed, Feb 18 45 Creighton W 77-65 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 39 @Villanova W 69-64 69%    
  Wed, Feb 25 13 St. John's W 78-72 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 76 Seton Hall W 74-58 92%    
  Sat, Mar 7 83 @Marquette W 77-66 83%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 17 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.8 9.6 16.0 17.5 12.4 4.8 65.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 7.1 6.9 3.6 0.9 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.4 7.5 12.2 16.7 19.6 18.4 12.4 4.8 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.8    4.8
19-1 100.0% 12.4    12.1 0.3
18-2 95.0% 17.5    15.8 1.7 0.0
17-3 81.7% 16.0    12.3 3.5 0.1
16-4 57.1% 9.6    6.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 31.5% 3.8    1.6 1.8 0.4 0.0
14-6 12.3% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-7 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 65.1% 65.1 52.8 11.0 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.8% 100.0% 72.3% 27.7% 1.2 3.7 1.0 0.1 100.0%
19-1 12.4% 100.0% 61.1% 38.9% 1.4 8.3 3.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
18-2 18.4% 100.0% 56.0% 44.0% 1.7 8.6 7.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 19.6% 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% 2.1 5.1 8.8 4.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.7% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 2.7 1.9 5.6 6.0 2.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
15-5 12.2% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 3.3 0.3 2.1 4.6 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 7.5% 100.0% 29.8% 70.2% 4.1 0.1 0.3 1.9 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.4% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 4.9 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 2.2% 99.7% 19.7% 80.0% 5.9 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
11-9 1.1% 99.4% 16.8% 82.6% 6.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
10-10 0.5% 96.6% 9.0% 87.6% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.2%
9-11 0.2% 92.7% 10.9% 81.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 91.8%
8-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-13 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 46.9% 53.0% 2.6 27.9 29.4 19.9 11.5 5.9 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.9 20.8 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 79.6 18.2 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 83.6 16.4