Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Connecticut 99.9%   2   8 - 1 0 - 0 26 - 5 17 - 3 +20.7      +10.6 11 +10.1 8 63.4 326 +24.4 6 0.0 1
16 St. John's 94.1%   5   5 - 3 0 - 0 22 - 9 15 - 5 +17.3      +9.2 18 +8.2 13 75.3 46 +12.6 45 0.0 1
38 Villanova 65.7%   10   7 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 12 - 8 +12.6      +7.6 37 +5.0 49 60.1 360 +13.5 39 0.0 1
43 Creighton 47.9%   11   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +11.4      +7.0 46 +4.4 61 67.9 226 +9.5 68 0.0 1
55 Butler 43.1%   7 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.1      +6.4 52 +3.7 70 74.0 77 +11.5 53 0.0 1
64 Seton Hall 36.1%   9 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 11 +8.6      +2.0 119 +6.6 28 64.1 317 +16.1 26 0.0 1
65 Providence 16.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 11 +8.6      +6.8 48 +1.8 116 76.9 34 +5.8 100 0.0 1
77 Xavier 13.8%   7 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +7.5      +3.5 88 +4.0 66 71.7 130 +8.6 74 0.0 1
86 Georgetown 11.4%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 15 7 - 13 +6.3      +4.5 73 +1.8 115 70.0 169 +10.4 60 0.0 1
88 Marquette 3.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 19 7 - 13 +6.0      +2.5 113 +3.5 73 74.2 70 -0.5 179 0.0 1
134 DePaul 0.3%   6 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 19 5 - 15 +1.8      +0.1 159 +1.7 119 69.4 188 -1.1 191 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 3 243 Central Connecticut St. 61 64 Seton Hall 77   
Wed, Dec 3 86 Georgetown 90 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. 81   
Fri, Dec 5 68 Cincinnati 74 77 Xavier 79   
Fri, Dec 5 300 East Texas A&M 59 6 Connecticut 83   
Sat, Dec 6 52 Boise St. 77 55 Butler 68   
Sat, Dec 6 57 Mississippi 58 16 St. John's 63   
Sat, Dec 6 82 Kansas St. 67 64 Seton Hall 78   
Sat, Dec 6 88 Marquette 76 30 Wisconsin 96   
Sat, Dec 6 65 Providence 90 116 Rhode Island 71   
Sat, Dec 6 248 Penn 63 38 Villanova 90   
Sat, Dec 6 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff 72 134 DePaul 76   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 7 43 Creighton 75 48 Nebraska 77 59%   
Sun, Dec 7 86 Georgetown 72 22 North Carolina 84 86%   
Tue, Dec 9 14 Florida 71 6 Connecticut 74 60%   
Tue, Dec 9 1 Michigan 80 38 Villanova 64 93%   
Tue, Dec 9 226 Brown 66 65 Providence 81 92%   
Tue, Dec 9 134 DePaul 85 358 Morgan St. 67 95%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.5 68.6 21.4 6.6 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 2.3 31.1 37.6 15.8 7.6 3.9 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Villanova 4.2 6.9 16.5 22.5 17.2 12.7 9.0 6.2 4.1 2.9 1.5 0.5
Creighton 4.8 4.2 11.4 18.6 17.8 14.2 11.3 8.3 6.2 4.4 2.6 1.0
Butler 5.5 2.2 7.3 13.5 15.9 15.2 13.4 11.0 8.9 6.4 4.4 1.8
Seton Hall 6.3 0.9 4.0 8.8 12.0 13.4 14.5 13.5 11.7 10.2 7.4 3.6
Providence 6.3 1.0 3.7 8.5 11.8 13.6 14.3 13.4 12.1 10.4 7.3 3.8
Xavier 7.0 0.5 2.3 5.6 8.8 11.5 12.8 14.2 14.4 13.0 10.8 6.1
Georgetown 7.6 0.3 1.4 3.8 6.6 8.8 11.0 12.6 14.2 15.3 15.7 10.4
Marquette 7.7 0.2 1.2 3.5 5.8 8.4 10.6 12.7 14.6 16.1 16.4 10.5
DePaul 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 8.4 13.1 22.3 44.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 4.1 7.1 11.8 15.9 19.7 19.0 13.3 5.5
St. John's 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.8 7.5 10.6 13.6 15.7 16.0 12.9 8.6 3.9 1.0
Villanova 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.8 8.3 10.5 12.6 13.7 12.8 11.2 8.7 5.3 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1
Creighton 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.3 7.9 10.6 12.5 13.0 13.4 11.2 8.5 5.8 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Butler 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.0 5.0 8.2 10.7 12.4 13.7 13.2 11.0 8.5 5.8 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 5.5 8.3 10.7 13.3 14.1 12.7 10.8 8.3 5.6 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Providence 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.4 8.2 11.7 13.3 13.5 12.8 11.2 7.8 5.2 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Xavier 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.5 5.0 7.8 10.8 13.2 14.3 13.5 11.0 8.4 5.8 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.5 7.4 10.9 12.8 13.9 13.1 11.4 9.0 6.3 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marquette 7 - 13 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.6 7.7 11.2 13.6 14.4 13.3 11.2 8.5 5.8 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 5 - 15 1.9 6.0 11.3 15.3 16.8 15.1 12.4 8.9 5.9 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 68.6% 56.4 11.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
St. John's 31.1% 21.0 9.0 1.0 0.1
Villanova 6.9% 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Creighton 4.2% 2.1 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Butler 2.2% 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.1
Seton Hall 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Providence 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Xavier 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Marquette 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 99.9% 49.5% 50.4% 2   28.9 29.9 20.2 11.4 5.2 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.8%
St. John's 94.1% 26.3% 67.8% 5   3.9 7.2 11.4 15.0 14.5 13.0 10.7 7.7 5.1 3.7 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.9 92.0%
Villanova 65.7% 8.0% 57.7% 10   0.2 0.6 1.8 3.7 5.8 8.0 8.8 9.4 10.2 9.9 7.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 34.3 62.7%
Creighton 47.9% 5.5% 42.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.2 6.4 7.8 8.6 8.9 7.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.1 44.8%
Butler 43.1% 3.8% 39.2% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.1 4.8 7.0 8.5 9.6 7.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 56.9 40.8%
Seton Hall 36.1% 2.1% 34.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.9 8.8 8.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 63.9 34.8%
Providence 16.2% 2.0% 14.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.2 4.1 4.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.8 14.5%
Xavier 13.8% 1.2% 12.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.0 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.2 12.8%
Georgetown 11.4% 0.8% 10.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.6 10.6%
Marquette 3.1% 0.7% 2.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.9 2.4%
DePaul 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 95.2% 69.7% 42.5% 23.0% 11.7% 5.6%
St. John's 94.1% 2.1% 93.2% 73.5% 39.6% 18.0% 8.2% 3.4% 1.3%
Villanova 65.7% 7.9% 61.9% 35.9% 11.8% 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Creighton 47.9% 7.6% 44.1% 23.3% 6.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Butler 43.1% 7.8% 39.0% 18.4% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Seton Hall 36.1% 9.2% 30.9% 12.4% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 16.2% 4.5% 13.8% 5.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 13.8% 4.4% 11.3% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 11.4% 3.6% 9.4% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 3.1% 0.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 0.0 1.6 16.2 41.1 32.0 8.4 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.1 0.0 3.1 23.0 43.9 24.9 4.8 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 99.8% 2.7 0.2 6.5 34.0 40.7 16.3 2.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 88.4% 1.4 11.6 47.1 35.0 6.0 0.3
Elite Eight 58.7% 0.7 41.3 48.3 10.0 0.4 0.0
Final Four 31.8% 0.3 68.2 29.8 2.0 0.0
Final Game 15.6% 0.2 84.4 15.4 0.2
Champion 7.1% 0.1 92.9 7.1