Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Connecticut 100.0%   2   12 - 1 2 - 0 27 - 4 17 - 3 +21.4      +9.9 16 +11.6 3 63.7 326 +27.3 4 +22.0 2
19 St. John's 90.5%   7   8 - 4 1 - 0 21 - 10 14 - 6 +16.4      +8.2 29 +8.2 14 74.0 63 +11.8 50 +15.5 4
32 Villanova 86.3%   8   10 - 2 1 - 0 22 - 9 13 - 7 +14.0      +7.4 39 +6.6 30 60.2 364 +18.7 15 +27.7 1
36 Creighton 61.0%   10   8 - 5 2 - 0 19 - 12 13 - 7 +13.2      +7.0 45 +6.2 33 67.8 230 +9.5 63 +21.2 3
50 Butler 49.1%   11   10 - 3 1 - 1 19 - 12 10 - 10 +10.3      +5.9 59 +4.5 63 73.3 76 +13.4 41 +14.3 5
54 Seton Hall 44.5%   11   11 - 2 1 - 1 20 - 11 10 - 10 +9.5      +1.5 126 +8.0 18 64.7 309 +14.9 32 +10.5 6
78 Providence 3.7%   7 - 6 0 - 2 14 - 17 7 - 13 +7.1      +6.8 46 +0.2 150 77.1 29 +3.1 127 -6.2 10
97 Xavier 4.6%   9 - 4 1 - 1 15 - 16 7 - 13 +5.5      +2.1 116 +3.4 78 72.6 94 +9.0 68 +9.3 7
99 Georgetown 4.6%   9 - 4 1 - 1 15 - 16 7 - 13 +5.4      +3.7 90 +1.7 120 70.0 167 +8.2 73 +4.9 8
105 Marquette 0.4%   5 - 8 0 - 2 11 - 20 6 - 14 +4.4      +1.1 134 +3.3 80 73.7 67 -2.1 194 -9.4 11
115 DePaul 0.5%   8 - 5 0 - 2 13 - 18 5 - 15 +3.3      -0.4 175 +3.7 72 68.4 216 +2.9 132 +3.7 9




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 20 Kentucky 78 19 St. John's 66   
Sat, Dec 20 50 Butler 61 57 Northwestern 58   
Sat, Dec 20 99 Georgetown 77 97 Xavier 80   
Sat, Dec 20 36 Creighton 84 105 Marquette 63   
Sun, Dec 21 115 DePaul 54 7 Connecticut 72   
Mon, Dec 22 36 Creighton 92 251 Utah Tech 69   
Mon, Dec 22 50 Butler 101 353 NJIT 52   
Mon, Dec 22 364 Coppin St. 67 99 Georgetown 97   
Tue, Dec 23 54 Seton Hall 56 32 Villanova 64   
Tue, Dec 23 192 Harvard 59 19 St. John's 85   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.3 76.1 16.9 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. John's 2.6 20.1 35.7 21.8 12.6 5.8 2.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Villanova 3.3 10.3 24.5 25.9 19.2 10.8 5.2 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
Creighton 3.6 7.4 19.7 25.1 22.1 13.6 6.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Butler 5.2 1.1 6.5 12.4 18.0 22.0 17.3 10.7 6.2 3.4 1.8 0.7
Seton Hall 5.7 0.7 3.5 8.8 14.9 21.8 19.8 13.5 8.4 4.9 2.7 1.1
Providence 7.7 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 8.1 13.7 18.1 17.6 15.7 12.4 8.5
Xavier 7.7 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.1 8.8 13.3 17.6 18.3 15.8 12.6 7.7
Georgetown 7.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.2 6.9 11.3 16.0 19.0 18.0 15.0 9.1
Marquette 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.3 6.4 9.9 13.9 17.7 22.3 24.8
DePaul 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.7 10.0 13.7 17.2 22.1 26.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.7 9.0 15.3 20.8 22.4 17.5 7.1
St. John's 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 5.7 9.2 13.2 15.7 16.4 14.9 10.6 6.0 2.1 0.4
Villanova 13 - 7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 10.1 13.3 15.5 15.2 13.8 9.6 5.4 2.4 0.7 0.1
Creighton 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.1 8.6 12.0 14.8 16.0 14.9 11.1 7.4 4.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Butler 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.4 9.7 13.3 14.9 15.0 12.9 9.9 6.3 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 5.2 8.5 12.2 15.3 15.4 14.4 11.0 7.3 4.1 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.0
Providence 7 - 13 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.0 7.2 11.6 14.8 15.9 15.6 11.9 8.2 4.7 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Xavier 7 - 13 0.1 1.1 3.7 7.3 11.3 15.5 16.5 15.5 11.6 8.4 5.1 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.3 1.6 4.5 9.2 13.4 16.6 16.7 14.2 10.3 6.6 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Marquette 6 - 14 0.5 2.4 6.2 10.9 15.3 16.7 15.7 12.2 9.2 5.7 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
DePaul 5 - 15 0.6 2.7 6.9 11.5 15.5 16.4 15.1 12.5 8.5 5.3 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 76.1% 63.8 10.9 1.4 0.1
St. John's 20.1% 12.0 6.9 1.1 0.1
Villanova 10.3% 5.5 3.8 0.9 0.1
Creighton 7.4% 3.8 2.9 0.7 0.1
Butler 1.1% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
Seton Hall 0.7% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Providence 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Xavier 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Marquette 0.0% 0.0
DePaul 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 53.4% 46.6% 2   33.9 34.6 19.1 8.3 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 90.5% 19.9% 70.6% 7   0.9 2.1 5.3 9.5 12.6 14.4 15.2 12.4 9.1 6.0 2.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 88.2%
Villanova 86.3% 11.0% 75.4% 8   0.3 0.9 2.7 5.9 9.3 12.8 13.7 12.8 12.4 10.0 5.4 0.1 13.7 84.6%
Creighton 61.0% 8.5% 52.5% 10   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 11.3 11.7 10.9 8.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 39.0 57.3%
Butler 49.1% 3.0% 46.0% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.6 7.5 10.4 12.6 9.6 0.3 0.0 50.9 47.5%
Seton Hall 44.5% 2.3% 42.2% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.6 9.4 11.7 10.0 0.3 0.0 55.5 43.2%
Providence 3.7% 0.8% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.3 2.9%
Xavier 4.6% 0.4% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 95.4 4.3%
Georgetown 4.6% 0.4% 4.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.4 4.2%
Marquette 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.2%
DePaul 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.3%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.3% 72.8% 44.9% 24.2% 12.3% 5.8%
St. John's 90.5% 3.3% 89.0% 63.7% 28.0% 11.5% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6%
Villanova 86.3% 6.1% 83.3% 50.2% 16.7% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
Creighton 61.0% 9.2% 56.9% 31.3% 8.6% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Butler 49.1% 10.9% 43.1% 18.6% 3.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 44.5% 11.2% 38.0% 15.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 3.7% 1.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 4.6% 2.2% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 4.6% 2.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.5 0.0 0.6 10.9 41.1 38.2 8.8 0.4
1st Round 100.0% 4.2 0.0 1.2 16.9 46.7 30.3 4.6 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 2.8 0.1 6.3 30.3 42.8 18.2 2.2 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 88.3% 1.3 11.7 50.1 32.4 5.6 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 57.8% 0.7 42.2 49.0 8.4 0.4 0.0
Final Four 30.6% 0.3 69.4 29.1 1.6 0.0
Final Game 14.7% 0.1 85.3 14.5 0.2
Champion 6.7% 0.1 93.3 6.7