Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Connecticut 100.0%   2   23 - 2 13 - 1 +21.0      +10.4 16 +10.6 9 63.6 319 +26.8 3 +24.3 1
20 St. John's 99.6%   6   19 - 5 12 - 1 +17.7      +9.0 29 +8.7 17 73.6 58 +17.1 25 +23.5 2
32 Villanova 92.8%   8   19 - 5 10 - 3 +14.4      +8.0 42 +6.5 34 61.8 343 +17.0 26 +16.9 3
53 Seton Hall 30.5%   17 - 8 7 - 7 +10.2      +1.0 137 +9.2 15 64.8 280 +11.6 52 +10.0 4
60 Providence 1.2%   11 - 14 4 - 10 +9.0      +9.6 19 -0.6 194 77.5 16 +5.4 91 +5.0 10
61 Creighton 3.0%   13 - 12 7 - 7 +8.7      +6.6 51 +2.2 107 67.4 217 +8.4 66 +9.7 5
75 Butler 1.5%   13 - 12 4 - 10 +7.6      +5.4 62 +2.1 108 70.5 129 +8.0 71 +5.3 9
76 Georgetown 1.8%   13 - 11 5 - 8 +7.5      +3.8 82 +3.7 72 67.2 223 +7.8 73 +7.3 7
83 Xavier 0.7%   12 - 12 4 - 9 +6.7      +3.2 91 +3.4 82 74.6 39 +7.6 77 +5.9 8
85 Marquette 0.2%   9 - 16 4 - 10 +6.5      +2.5 106 +4.1 63 72.3 82 +2.5 123 +4.4 11
98 DePaul 0.2%   13 - 12 5 - 9 +5.3      +0.6 150 +4.6 60 66.9 233 +5.9 86 +7.4 6


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 9 20 St. John's 87 83 Xavier 82   
Tue, Feb 10 85 Marquette 74 32 Villanova 77   
Wed, Feb 11 75 Butler 70 7 Connecticut 80   
Wed, Feb 11 61 Creighton 71 98 DePaul 72   
Wed, Feb 11 60 Providence 80 53 Seton Hall 87   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 14 85 Marquette 77 83 Xavier 80 62%   
Sat, Feb 14 61 Creighton 71 32 Villanova 74 60%   
Sat, Feb 14 60 Providence 84 20 St. John's 90 71%   
Sat, Feb 14 76 Georgetown 62 7 Connecticut 79 93%   
Sun, Feb 15 75 Butler 71 53 Seton Hall 70 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.2 82.4 17.0 0.5
St. John's 1.7 34.5 60.6 4.8
Villanova 2.8 1.4 13.5 84.7 0.3 0.0
Seton Hall 4.4 1.0 68.1 21.2 6.6 2.3 0.6 0.2
Providence 7.6 3.8 10.5 18.8 17.7 16.6 13.8 11.4 7.5
Creighton 4.8 0.8 43.1 38.1 11.7 4.2 1.6 0.6 0.0
Butler 8.0 3.1 7.0 14.3 16.8 17.4 17.0 14.9 9.5
Georgetown 6.7 0.0 9.4 15.1 27.1 18.4 13.3 8.5 5.9 2.4
Xavier 7.9 0.1 3.9 7.2 15.4 16.8 16.1 15.7 13.6 11.2
Marquette 9.0 0.5 2.2 7.5 11.2 13.6 17.9 21.6 25.6
DePaul 7.5 0.1 5.1 9.5 16.7 19.4 17.6 15.2 11.0 5.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.5 20.5 40.5 32.7
St. John's 17 - 3 24 - 7 0.0 0.4 2.3 9.2 22.8 32.4 26.0 7.0
Villanova 14 - 6 23 - 8 0.1 1.4 6.6 18.5 28.9 27.8 13.8 2.9
Seton Hall 10 - 10 20 - 11 1.3 9.6 24.5 33.2 23.0 7.6 0.8
Providence 7 - 13 14 - 17 1.5 9.2 22.4 30.3 23.5 11.0 2.0
Creighton 9 - 11 15 - 16 3.8 18.0 32.9 29.9 12.8 2.4 0.2
Butler 7 - 13 16 - 15 2.9 13.0 26.5 30.0 19.8 7.0 0.9
Georgetown 8 - 12 16 - 15 2.8 13.2 27.4 31.0 18.4 6.2 1.0 0.1
Xavier 7 - 13 15 - 16 3.0 13.0 25.1 29.0 19.2 8.2 2.3 0.2
Marquette 6 - 14 11 - 20 7.8 25.9 33.2 22.3 8.8 1.8 0.1
DePaul 7 - 13 15 - 16 8.3 24.3 31.3 23.1 10.1 2.5 0.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 82.4% 64.8 17.1 0.5
St. John's 34.5% 17.1 16.9 0.5
Villanova 1.4% 0.2 0.7 0.5
Seton Hall
Providence
Creighton
Butler
Georgetown
Xavier
Marquette
DePaul


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% 2   29.0 47.4 18.7 4.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 99.6% 28.1% 71.5% 6   0.8 2.4 7.9 16.3 24.0 23.2 15.9 6.3 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.5 99.4%
Villanova 92.8% 11.6% 81.2% 8   0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 4.1 10.1 17.8 22.1 20.3 12.6 4.0 0.0 7.2 91.9%
Seton Hall 30.5% 2.8% 27.6% 0.1 0.1 0.5 2.3 7.9 19.3 0.2 69.5 28.4%
Providence 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 98.8 0.2%
Creighton 3.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 97.0 1.5%
Butler 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.5 1.0%
Georgetown 1.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.2 1.0%
Xavier 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.2%
Marquette 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
DePaul 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.3 4.4 61.6 32.3 1.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.2 6.4 69.7 23.2 0.7
2nd Round 99.9% 2.4 0.2 9.3 48.1 39.5 3.0
Sweet Sixteen 85.3% 1.2 14.7 51.1 31.0 3.1 0.0
Elite Eight 52.8% 0.6 47.2 45.4 7.3 0.2
Final Four 26.4% 0.3 73.6 25.3 1.1
Final Game 11.7% 0.1 88.3 11.6 0.1
Champion 5.1% 0.1 94.9 5.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 98.5% 70.8% 41.5% 20.4% 9.6% 4.4%
St. John's 99.6% 0.1% 99.5% 79.7% 37.7% 14.5% 5.8% 1.9% 0.7%
Villanova 92.8% 3.4% 91.2% 49.1% 12.7% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Seton Hall 30.5% 17.9% 20.9% 6.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 1.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Creighton 3.0% 1.4% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 1.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%