Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#72
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#114
Pace78.0#26
Improvement+0.3#163

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#52
First Shot+4.3#64
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#80
Layup/Dunks+1.2#135
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#78
Freethrows+1.3#120
Improvement-0.1#184

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#125
First Shot+0.9#142
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#140
Layups/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#132
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#306
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+0.4#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 12.8% 5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 9.5% 11.3% 4.4%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 9.9
.500 or above 43.4% 49.7% 25.7%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 36.1% 24.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 11.3% 9.6% 16.0%
First Four3.3% 3.8% 1.9%
First Round9.2% 10.9% 4.6%
Second Round4.0% 4.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Home) - 73.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 11
Quad 24 - 57 - 16
Quad 34 - 111 - 17
Quad 45 - 016 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 301 Holy Cross W 89-79 95%     1 - 0 -0.8 +1.5 -3.3
  Sat, Nov 8 70 Virginia Tech L 101-107 OT 50%     1 - 1 +1.8 +9.5 -6.4
  Tue, Nov 11 240 Penn W 106-81 91%     2 - 1 +17.5 +15.6 -1.0
  Fri, Nov 14 64 @Colorado L 88-97 35%     2 - 2 +2.8 +8.3 -4.5
  Tue, Nov 18 344 New Hampshire W 98-66 97%     3 - 2 +17.6 +21.0 -3.1
  Sat, Nov 22 96 Penn St. W 77-65 60%     4 - 2 +17.1 +4.1 +13.0
  Thu, Nov 27 36 Wisconsin L 83-104 30%     4 - 3 -8.0 +4.0 -8.9
  Fri, Nov 28 15 Florida L 78-90 17%     4 - 4 +5.8 +10.9 -4.5
  Tue, Dec 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94-64 98%     5 - 4 +12.1 +17.1 -3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 110 Rhode Island W 84-77 74%    
  Tue, Dec 9 225 Brown W 81-66 91%    
  Sat, Dec 13 44 @Butler L 81-88 26%    
  Fri, Dec 19 76 Seton Hall W 76-73 61%    
  Sat, Jan 3 13 @St. John's L 79-92 11%    
  Wed, Jan 7 5 Connecticut L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 77 @Xavier L 80-83 40%    
  Tue, Jan 13 39 Villanova L 75-76 45%    
  Fri, Jan 16 45 Creighton L 80-81 47%    
  Mon, Jan 19 83 @Marquette L 81-83 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 85 Georgetown W 84-80 66%    
  Tue, Jan 27 5 @Connecticut L 69-85 7%    
  Fri, Jan 30 39 @Villanova L 72-79 25%    
  Wed, Feb 4 44 Butler L 84-85 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 121 DePaul W 84-76 76%    
  Wed, Feb 11 76 @Seton Hall L 73-76 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 13 St. John's L 82-89 26%    
  Sat, Feb 21 121 @DePaul W 81-79 56%    
  Tue, Feb 24 77 Xavier W 83-80 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 45 @Creighton L 77-84 28%    
  Wed, Mar 4 83 Marquette W 84-80 63%    
  Sat, Mar 7 85 @Georgetown L 81-83 44%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 9.6 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 5.1 3.2 0.7 0.1 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.7 3.6 0.8 0.1 13.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.7 5.7 4.1 0.7 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.1 2.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.3 6.5 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.7 10.6 12.5 14.4 13.3 11.4 8.5 5.8 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 72.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 42.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 14.2% 85.8% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.0% 96.3% 15.9% 80.4% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 95.6%
14-6 2.1% 85.1% 5.8% 79.2% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 84.1%
13-7 3.9% 62.5% 4.7% 57.9% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 1.4 60.7%
12-8 5.8% 44.4% 4.8% 39.6% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.0 3.2 41.6%
11-9 8.5% 20.4% 3.3% 17.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.1 6.8 17.6%
10-10 11.4% 5.0% 1.6% 3.5% 10.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 10.8 3.5%
9-11 13.3% 1.6% 0.9% 0.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.7%
8-12 14.4% 0.5% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3
7-13 12.5% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4
6-14 10.6% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6
5-15 7.7% 7.7
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 2.5% 2.5
2-18 1.1% 1.1
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.9% 1.6% 9.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.1 9.5%