Providence
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +9.0 60
Expected Predictive Rating +5.4 91
Pace 77.5 16
Improvement +2.1 97

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A- #19 A- B+ B B+ B
Defense C #194 C+ B- D B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 127 67% 32 +4.6 37
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 310 44% 40 -1.6 263
Three Pointers 45% 93 37% 65 +4.2 50
1st FG Attempt 1.16 21 +7.3 21
Second Chance 35.0% 63 1.16 38 0.41 33
Turnovers 14.8% 53
Freethrows 0.35 55 77% 25 0.27 29
Total Offense +9.6 19

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 228 53% 54 +2.8 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 79 38% 189 -1.3 285
Three Pointers 39% 237 36% 276 -0.5 208
1st FG Attempt 1.00 141 +1.0 142
Second Chance 28.5% 98 0.99 122 0.28 92
Turnovers 14.9% 305
Freethrows 0.28 90 72% 142 0.20 95
Total Defense -0.6 194

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.0 60 -0.5 88
Shot Type Accuracy +6.0 28 -0.5 160
Possession Length 15.2 21 17.5 228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 20 0.17 161
Improvement +3.2 #42 -1.1 #255

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 1% 0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.0 12.4
.500 or above 16% 35% 9%
.500 or above in Conference 2% 7% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 21% 8% 26%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. John's (Home) - 30.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 51 - 9
Quad 22 - 74 - 16
Quad 36 - 210 - 18
Quad 45 - 015 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 321 Holy Cross W 89 - 79 97% +10  84% 1 - 0 C- -3 C- -2 C- C C+ C- -2 D A C
 Sat, Nov 8 55 Virginia Tech L 101 - 107 OT 46% -0  37% 1 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +9 B- B B+ D+ -4 D+ C- D
 Tue, Nov 11 185 Penn W 106 - 81 89% +10  93% 2 - 1 A +20 A+ +16 A A+ D- C+ +2 A C+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 77 @Colorado L 88 - 97 44% -4  1% 2 - 2 C +1 B- +5 C+ D+ A- C- -3 B- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 327 New Hampshire W 98 - 66 97% +13  95% 3 - 2 A +19 A+ +19 A+ C- A- C -0 B F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 109 Penn St. W 77 - 65 69% +3  68% 4 - 2 A- +16 C +1 F B+ A+ A+ +15 A+ B C+
 Thu, Nov 27 33 Wisconsin L 83 - 104 30% -14  0% 4 - 3 D+ -7 C +1 B B C- D+ -4 C+ C- D
 Fri, Nov 28 4 Florida L 78 - 90 10% -9  1% 4 - 4 B+ +11 A- +11 A C- B+ C+ +1 A D+ F+
 Tue, Dec 2 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 94 - 64 97% +23  99% 5 - 4 A- +16 A+ +18 A+ A- C C +0 C D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 116 Rhode Island W 90 - 71 80% +5  72% 6 - 4 A +19 A+ +16 A+ A- C B- +3 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 9 278 Brown W 86 - 79 95% +6  94% 7 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 B- C+ C- D -7 C- C+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 75 @Butler L 110 - 113 2OT 44% +0  42% 7 - 5 0 - 1 B- +8 A+ +18 A B A+ F+ -10 C- C- F
 Fri, Dec 19 53 Seton Hall L 67 - 72 57% -3  10% 7 - 6 0 - 2 C+ +2 C -0 C F+ A+ B- +2 C B B+
 Sat, Jan 3 20 @St. John's W 77 - 71 14% -5  8% 8 - 6 1 - 2 A+ +27 B +7 D- A+ A+ A+ +20 A+ B B
 Wed, Jan 7 7 Connecticut L 98 - 103 OT 20% +5  79% 8 - 7 1 - 3 B+ +13 A+ +17 A+ A C- C- -3 D- A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 83 @Xavier L 84 - 97 47% -11  1% 8 - 8 1 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 C- C+ A+ D+ -5 D+ B F
 Tue, Jan 13 32 Villanova L 82 - 88 41% -7  6% 8 - 9 1 - 5 B- +5 A +12 A+ A B- D -7 F+ A- C
 Fri, Jan 16 61 Creighton W 93 - 88 63% +1  53% 9 - 9 2 - 5 B +11 A- +11 C A+ B+ C -0 A F+ D+
 Mon, Jan 19 85 @Marquette L 104 - 105 OT 48% -3  15% 9 - 10 2 - 6 B +9 A+ +20 A+ A+ C F+ -11 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 76 Georgetown L 78 - 81 67% +9  86% 9 - 11 2 - 7 C +2 A +11 B+ B A F+ -10 F B+ D-
 Tue, Jan 27 7 @Connecticut L 81 - 87 9% -4  6% 9 - 12 2 - 8 A +18 A+ +15 A A- A B- +3 B B+ D
 Fri, Jan 30 32 @Villanova L 73 - 87 21% -10  5% 9 - 13 2 - 9 C+ +3 B +7 A- C C D+ -4 D- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 75 Butler W 97 - 87 2OT 67% -0  37% 10 - 13 3 - 9 A- +15 A +11 A- B- A C+ +2 B- A D
 Sat, Feb 7 98 DePaul W 90 - 72 74% +14  98% 11 - 13 4 - 9 A +20 A+ +16 A+ A+ D- B- +4 B+ C- D-
 Wed, Feb 11 53 @Seton Hall L 80 - 87 34% +1  59% 11 - 14 4 - 10 B- +6 A+ +17 A+ C+ D F+ -11 D- C+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 20 St. John's L 84 - 90 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 98 @DePaul W 81 - 80 53%
 Tue, Feb 24 83 Xavier W 90 - 85 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 61 @Creighton L 84 - 87 40%
 Wed, Mar 4 85 Marquette W 88 - 83 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 76 @Georgetown L 82 - 84 45%
Totals 14 - 17 7 - 13 +9 A- +10 A- B+ B C -1 C+ B- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A- B+ B+ B A- 40% 14% 45% B A- B B+ B+ B B B+ B+ C B C D+ C 37% 24% 39% B- C+ B- C+ B- D B- C+ B-
1.22 67% 44% 37% +6 +1 1.16 35% 1.2 .41 15% .35 77% .27 1.10 53% 38% 36% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.0 .28 15% .28 72% .25
Nov
3		 Holy Cross C- A+ F+ F D+ 41% 17% 43% C C- D- A+ C C+ A+ C+ A+ C- F+ D+ C- D- 24% 27% 49% B- D C A+ A C D- A C-
1.14 82% 33% 22% +1 +1 1.06 22% 1.5 .33 13% .40 74% .29 1.01 64% 44% 34% +3 -2 1.05 21% 0.4 .09 17% .32 67% .22
Nov
8		 Virginia Tech B+ C- B+ C B 32% 26% 41% D+ B- C- A+ B B+ A A+ A+ D+ D+ D+ F+ D+ 38% 26% 36% B- D+ B+ F C- D B A- B+
1.13 55% 44% 32% 0 -1 0.99 29% 1.3 .38 16% .33 88% .29 1.20 65% 39% 40% +6 -1 1.13 28% 1.4 .40 12% .28 68% .19
Nov
11		 Penn A+ A- F A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% B- A A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F A 23% 36% 41% A+ A A- F+ C+ F D+ F D-
1.34 71% 22% 48% +12 +1 1.27 44% 1.4 .59 19% .36 91% .33 1.02 29% 23% 44% -6 -3 0.84 26% 1.2 .30 13% .35 79% .27
Nov
14		 Colorado B- A- C+ F C 43% 17% 40% B+ C+ D C D+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- B- D+ C+ B+ 60% 13% 27% F B- C- F F C F+ F F
1.11 65% 40% 25% -2 +1 1.00 23% 1.1 .25 13% .45 77% .35 1.22 58% 43% 33% 0 +3 1.07 34% 1.3 .43 14% .40 85% .34
Nov
18		 New Hampshire A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 54% 5% 41% A+ A+ A F C- A- C+ F D+ C F B A+ B- 29% 25% 46% A+ B F F F C+ A+ F B
1.41 73% 33% 43% +14 +3 1.36 41% 0.7 .29 12% .36 64% .23 0.95 67% 31% 21% -8 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .16 89% .14
Nov
22		 Penn St. C C- A+ F F 40% 7% 53% A- F B B- B+ A+ A B+ A A+ A+ D D A+ 40% 25% 36% B+ A+ D+ A+ B C+ B F+ B-
1.10 57% 50% 19% -11 +2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 10% .30 79% .24 0.92 24% 46% 37% -10 0 0.81 33% 0.9 .30 16% .27 81% .22
Nov
27		 Wisconsin C D- A+ A- B 38% 21% 41% B- B D+ A+ B C- D A C- D+ D+ F+ C C+ 36% 9% 55% C C+ C- C C- D C+ A+ B+
1.02 46% 54% 38% +1 0 1.05 19% 1.6 .31 17% .22 80% .18 1.27 65% 50% 34% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .37 10% .33 67% .22
Nov
28		 Florida A- C- A- A+ A+ 38% 35% 27% C- A B- F C- B+ A+ A A+ C+ C A+ C+ A- 28% 21% 51% A+ A A+ F D+ F+ D- F F
1.06 50% 44% 43% +3 -2 1.04 24% 0.4 .11 14% .41 77% .31 1.22 63% 25% 31% -4 -1 0.93 32% 1.5 .49 11% .41 81% .34
Dec
2		 Fairleigh Dickinson A+ B B- A+ A+ 40% 13% 46% B A+ A C+ A- C F A+ F C A+ A+ F C+ 42% 12% 46% F+ C F A D+ A+ B F C
1.43 67% 43% 58% +21 +1 1.46 38% 1.0 .38 15% .20 82% .16 0.97 29% 17% 48% -5 +1 0.94 46% 0.6 .29 27% .23 82% .19
Dec
6		 Rhode Island A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 13% 55% C A+ C+ A A- C C B- C+ B- A- A F F 32% 14% 54% C+ F A- A+ A+ A A A+ A+
1.29 80% 50% 50% +22 +1 1.47 33% 1.3 .42 21% .35 74% .26 1.02 50% 29% 52% +11 0 1.24 28% 0.4 .11 24% .26 50% .13
Dec
9		 Brown C+ B+ F C C+ 42% 15% 44% B B- B- C- C+ C- C+ A+ B+ D B A- D- C- 47% 21% 33% C C- A F C+ F D- D D-
1.13 65% 25% 33% +1 +1 1.05 34% 0.9 .32 18% .34 86% .29 1.04 48% 25% 37% -6 +1 0.91 21% 1.4 .28 13% .30 75% .23
Dec
13		 Butler A+ C+ A A A 39% 16% 46% B- A A- C- B A+ C+ A- B- F+ D- A+ C C- 48% 15% 37% C- C- F+ B+ C- F F C F
1.28 59% 45% 41% +6 +1 1.16 37% 0.9 .33 10% .23 78% .18 1.32 67% 22% 35% +2 +2 1.10 43% 1.0 .43 8% .48 71% .34
Dec
19		 Seton Hall C B+ C- F C- 44% 7% 49% A C F D F+ A+ A+ A A+ B- B D+ C C 46% 22% 33% C- C B C+ B B+ F A+ F+
0.96 60% 33% 23% -8 +2 0.91 20% 0.8 .17 19% .53 80% .42 1.04 52% 40% 33% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 19% .48 63% .30
Jan
3		 St. John's B D+ F F F 52% 19% 29% B D- A- A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 40% 18% 42% B+ A+ F A+ B B F A F
1.03 48% 10% 27% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.5 .56 16% .44 75% .33 0.95 32% 40% 17% -20 0 0.62 46% 0.9 .41 16% .59 65% .38
Jan
7		 Connecticut A+ C D- A+ A+ 44% 18% 39% B A+ B A+ A C- A- B- A C- B+ B+ F F 29% 26% 45% A+ D- A+ B+ A+ D+ B+ F C
1.19 52% 30% 55% +8 +1 1.19 30% 1.3 .39 21% .41 74% .30 1.25 56% 38% 57% +15 -1 1.29 27% 1.0 .27 15% .25 83% .21
Jan
10		 Xavier C+ A B F C- 33% 22% 44% C C- D- A+ C+ A+ C+ D+ C D+ B- D F D+ 38% 20% 42% D- D+ A+ F B F B+ D+ B
1.05 71% 43% 25% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.3 .25 11% .30 67% .20 1.21 58% 43% 41% +6 0 1.13 15% 1.3 .21 5% .20 73% .14
Jan
13		 Villanova A A+ A+ F A+ 41% 16% 43% A- A+ D+ A+ A B- A- B- A- D F D+ F F 31% 24% 45% A- F+ D- A+ A- C C F+ D+
1.18 90% 50% 24% +9 +1 1.20 26% 1.6 .41 19% .30 71% .21 1.27 81% 42% 43% +15 -1 1.29 41% 0.6 .26 14% .30 78% .24
Jan
16		 Creighton A- B A+ F D+ 48% 14% 38% A C A+ A A+ B+ A+ B- A+ C B- A+ C+ A+ 35% 18% 47% C A D- D F+ D+ F F F
1.22 63% 50% 19% -4 +2 0.96 45% 1.3 .57 13% .53 71% .38 1.15 60% 10% 33% -5 0 0.93 34% 1.1 .39 13% .44 83% .36
Jan
19		 Marquette A+ B- C+ A+ A+ 46% 15% 38% B A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F+ F D- A+ F+ 56% 15% 30% C+ D- C F F F F B+ D
1.28 63% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.21 45% 1.2 .55 21% .51 88% .45 1.29 74% 44% 22% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.3 .41 7% .40 63% .25
Jan
24		 Georgetown A B+ F A- B 44% 19% 38% A- B+ B+ C+ B A A A+ A+ F+ F+ F C- F 33% 25% 42% B F B+ B B+ D- A+ B- A+
1.21 62% 22% 39% +2 +1 1.06 35% 1.0 .35 12% .37 86% .32 1.25 67% 64% 35% +10 -1 1.20 29% 1.0 .29 11% .19 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
27		 Connecticut A+ C- A+ B+ A 57% 13% 30% A+ A B- A+ A- A A+ A- A+ B- C- A+ F+ B 39% 22% 39% B+ B C+ A B+ D F A- F
1.12 50% 50% 36% -2 +2 1.02 29% 1.2 .35 15% .51 77% .39 1.21 65% 27% 40% +4 0 1.10 37% 0.9 .34 14% .45 64% .29
Jan
30		 Villanova B C+ A+ B- A 34% 26% 40% C A- B D C C B- D C D+ C F F F 30% 19% 52% B D- A+ C A+ F D A C
1.06 59% 54% 35% +5 -1 1.10 34% 0.8 .28 20% .26 64% .16 1.27 63% 60% 43% +12 0 1.26 15% 1.0 .15 7% .35 64% .22
Feb
4		 Butler A A+ A C+ A 33% 20% 47% C- A- A F+ B- A A+ D A+ C+ A- F C+ B- 47% 21% 32% B- B- A B- A D F B F
1.23 72% 45% 35% +7 0 1.15 40% 0.8 .30 13% .57 67% .38 1.10 48% 58% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 1.1 .31 13% .49 68% .33
Feb
7		 DePaul A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 35% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ F B+ B- C+ F A+ A- 48% 17% 34% F+ B+ D+ C+ C- D- A+ A- A+
1.26 62% 78% 44% +15 +1 1.33 46% 1.2 .54 22% .45 60% .27 1.01 57% 50% 20% -6 +1 0.93 33% 1.1 .37 14% .18 64% .11
Feb
11		 Seton Hall A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 10% 67% C A+ B C- C+ D C- A+ A F+ A+ F C F 40% 31% 29% A- D- A+ F C+ F D- D F+
1.17 60% 75% 46% +17 0 1.36 35% 0.9 .31 26% .34 94% .32 1.27 43% 75% 33% +5 -1 1.10 26% 1.3 .35 7% .39 76% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 1.4 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.7 6.3 0.5 10.5 5th
6th 2.4 13.9 2.4 0.1 18.8 6th
7th 0.2 12.1 5.5 0.0 17.7 7th
8th 0.0 3.7 12.5 0.3 16.6 8th
9th 0.4 10.2 3.2 0.0 13.8 9th
10th 0.1 3.9 7.2 0.2 11.4 10th
11th 1.5 4.9 1.1 7.5 11th
Total 1.5 9.2 22.4 30.3 23.5 11.0 2.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 2.0% 12.1% 4.5% 7.5% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.8 7.9%
9-11 11.0% 3.3% 2.9% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 10.6 0.4%
8-12 23.5% 0.9% 0.9% 11.3 0.2 0.1 23.3
7-13 30.3% 0.9% 0.9% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 30.1
6-14 22.4% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 22.3
5-15 9.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 9.2
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 11.7 98.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 30.4% 10.9 4.3 26.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8% 6.5% 10.8 1.3 5.2
Lose Out 0.9%