Providence
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#81
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#109
Pace65.4#256
Improvement+1.0#143

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#77
First Shot+1.1#141
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#30
Layup/Dunks-1.8#251
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#52
Freethrows+0.6#138
Improvement+4.1#19

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#88
First Shot+1.2#135
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#46
Layups/Dunks-0.3#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#318
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#32
Freethrows-0.3#202
Improvement-3.1#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.5% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.2 11.0 11.5
.500 or above 20.7% 29.0% 9.7%
.500 or above in Conference 17.9% 25.7% 7.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 1.1% 4.4%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 2.0% 1.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 9
Quad 24 - 76 - 16
Quad 33 - 29 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 230   Central Connecticut St. W 59-55 90%     1 - 0 -2.6 -7.3 +5.2
  Nov 09, 2024 316   Stonehill W 76-49 95%     2 - 0 +15.4 -5.0 +19.6
  Nov 12, 2024 254   Hampton W 60-51 92%     3 - 0 +0.9 -6.4 +8.8
  Nov 16, 2024 332   Green Bay W 79-65 96%     4 - 0 +0.0 +1.1 -0.5
  Nov 19, 2024 323   Delaware St. W 78-48 95%     5 - 0 +17.9 +12.1 +10.7
  Nov 27, 2024 45   Oklahoma L 77-79 35%     5 - 1 +9.2 +8.0 +1.2
  Nov 28, 2024 120   Davidson L 58-69 67%     5 - 2 -8.3 -7.9 -2.0
  Nov 29, 2024 56   Indiana L 73-89 39%     5 - 3 -6.1 +10.1 -17.1
  Dec 03, 2024 43   BYU W 83-64 44%     6 - 3 +27.7 +24.3 +6.0
  Dec 07, 2024 109   @ Rhode Island L 63-69 54%     6 - 4 +0.2 -4.7 +4.7
  Dec 10, 2024 106   @ DePaul W 70-63 OT 53%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +13.3 -6.1 +18.8
  Dec 14, 2024 96   St. Bonaventure L 70-74 57%     7 - 5 +1.4 +9.3 -8.4
  Dec 20, 2024 17   St. John's L 70-72 26%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +11.8 +4.9 +7.0
  Dec 31, 2024 20   Marquette L 50-78 29%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -15.1 -10.2 -8.4
  Jan 05, 2025 24   @ Connecticut L 84-87 16%     7 - 8 1 - 3 +14.8 +21.2 -6.6
  Jan 08, 2025 83   Butler W 84-65 62%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +23.0 +15.5 +8.3
  Jan 11, 2025 132   Seton Hall W 91-85 78%     9 - 8 3 - 3 +5.1 +19.2 -14.1
  Jan 14, 2025 33   @ Creighton L 64-84 21%     9 - 9 3 - 4 -4.3 -2.4 -1.5
  Jan 17, 2025 44   @ Villanova L 73-75 25%     9 - 10 3 - 5 +12.0 +6.7 +5.2
  Jan 25, 2025 68   Georgetown W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 28, 2025 132   @ Seton Hall W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   @ St. John's L 65-77 13%    
  Feb 05, 2025 33   Creighton L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 83   @ Butler L 71-73 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 41   Xavier L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 15, 2025 44   Villanova L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 19, 2025 68   @ Georgetown L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 25, 2025 20   @ Marquette L 66-77 15%    
  Mar 01, 2025 24   Connecticut L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 05, 2025 106   DePaul W 75-69 72%    
  Mar 08, 2025 41   @ Xavier L 68-75 24%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 6.2 5th
6th 0.8 4.4 4.9 1.5 0.1 11.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 8.0 8.5 2.6 0.2 21.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.4 6.7 13.2 11.1 3.0 0.3 35.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 7.4 3.9 0.9 0.0 17.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.3 2.6 7.6 15.0 19.3 20.8 16.6 10.4 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 33.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 45.0% 10.0% 35.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 38.9%
12-8 1.9% 22.2% 6.3% 15.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.5 16.9%
11-9 5.1% 9.3% 3.5% 5.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.7 6.0%
10-10 10.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.2 0.8%
9-11 16.6% 1.8% 1.7% 0.1% 11.3 0.2 0.1 16.3 0.1%
8-12 20.8% 0.8% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.6
7-13 19.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.3 0.1 0.0 19.2
6-14 15.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.2 0.1 0.0 14.9
5-15 7.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.6
4-16 2.6% 2.6
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 1.1% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 98.0 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%