Oklahoma
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.9#37
Expected Predictive Rating+20.7#6
Pace67.9#214
Improvement+0.7#133

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#33
First Shot+5.7#43
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#121
Layup/Dunks+3.8#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#121
Freethrows+2.8#49
Improvement+0.5#139

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#46
First Shot+4.6#50
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks-0.8#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#105
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#163
Freethrows+3.8#10
Improvement+0.3#171
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 5.2% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 16.6% 24.2% 11.3%
Top 6 Seed 36.5% 47.8% 28.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.0% 84.4% 68.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.7% 84.1% 68.2%
Average Seed 6.8 6.3 7.2
.500 or above 96.7% 99.0% 95.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 48.3% 37.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 5.1% 8.3%
First Four7.8% 6.6% 8.5%
First Round71.0% 80.9% 64.1%
Second Round43.6% 52.7% 37.2%
Sweet Sixteen17.7% 22.6% 14.2%
Elite Eight6.4% 8.3% 5.0%
Final Four2.3% 3.1% 1.7%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Michigan (Neutral) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 10
Quad 25 - 112 - 11
Quad 32 - 014 - 11
Quad 47 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 347   Lindenwood W 93-60 98%     1 - 0 +18.2 +9.5 +7.2
  Nov 11, 2024 296   Northwestern St. W 73-57 97%     2 - 0 +6.0 -2.3 +8.7
  Nov 16, 2024 336   Stetson W 85-64 98%     3 - 0 +7.2 +4.0 +3.2
  Nov 21, 2024 357   Texas A&M - Commerce W 84-56 99%     4 - 0 +11.5 +4.7 +7.1
  Nov 27, 2024 75   Providence W 79-77 68%     5 - 0 +9.2 +11.0 -1.8
  Nov 28, 2024 21   Arizona W 82-77 41%     6 - 0 +19.3 +16.9 +2.5
  Nov 29, 2024 50   Louisville W 69-64 57%     7 - 0 +15.2 +8.7 +7.1
  Dec 03, 2024 110   Georgia Tech W 76-61 85%     8 - 0 +15.9 +10.9 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 343   Alcorn St. W 94-78 98%     9 - 0 +1.7 +11.0 -9.8
  Dec 14, 2024 85   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 70%     10 - 0 +21.4 +9.2 +12.0
  Dec 18, 2024 20   Michigan L 73-75 41%    
  Dec 22, 2024 342   Central Arkansas W 84-58 99%    
  Dec 29, 2024 340   Prairie View W 93-67 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 76-86 19%    
  Jan 08, 2025 24   Texas A&M W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 11, 2025 40   @ Georgia L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 15, 2025 33   Texas W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 18, 2025 69   South Carolina W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 25, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 73-77 36%    
  Jan 28, 2025 24   @ Texas A&M L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 01, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 80-74 69%    
  Feb 04, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 70-84 11%    
  Feb 08, 2025 4   Tennessee L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 12, 2025 51   @ Missouri L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 15, 2025 60   LSU W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 8   @ Florida L 73-82 21%    
  Feb 22, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 26, 2025 11   Kentucky L 80-82 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 71-76 34%    
  Mar 05, 2025 51   Missouri W 77-72 66%    
  Mar 08, 2025 33   @ Texas L 70-73 38%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 2.9 0.7 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.2 1.4 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 3.0 4.8 0.8 0.0 8.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 5.4 2.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.3 3.9 4.2 0.4 0.0 8.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.9 5.3 1.4 0.0 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 4.2 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.3 0.1 6.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.4 0.1 5.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.4 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.6 5.1 8.4 11.6 14.3 15.0 13.6 11.2 7.8 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 90.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 63.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 32.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 11.1% 88.9% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.2% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.5% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 2.9 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.0% 100.0% 4.7% 95.3% 3.6 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.8% 100.0% 2.8% 97.2% 4.4 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8 11.2% 99.9% 1.7% 98.3% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.3 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 13.6% 99.4% 0.6% 98.8% 6.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.6 3.8 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.4%
8-10 15.0% 96.0% 0.7% 95.3% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.7 3.4 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.6 96.0%
7-11 14.3% 81.1% 0.2% 80.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 3.6 2.7 0.1 2.7 81.1%
6-12 11.6% 50.5% 0.1% 50.4% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.1 0.4 5.7 50.4%
5-13 8.4% 16.8% 0.0% 16.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 7.0 16.8%
4-14 5.1% 1.6% 1.6% 11.3 0.1 0.0 5.0 1.6%
3-15 2.6% 2.6
2-16 1.1% 1.1
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 75.0% 1.2% 73.8% 6.8 0.8 2.3 5.7 7.7 9.6 10.3 8.4 7.3 7.5 7.1 7.5 0.8 25.0 74.7%