Preseason Rankings
Oklahoma
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#47
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#113
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.0#38
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#61
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.9% 1.9% 0.6%
Top 4 Seed 6.7% 6.7% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 15.1% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.6% 40.8% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.5% 39.7% 9.1%
Average Seed 7.1 7.1 7.7
.500 or above 66.4% 66.7% 23.8%
.500 or above in Conference 36.3% 36.4% 12.8%
Conference Champion 2.1% 2.2% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 12.6% 29.0%
First Four4.6% 4.6% 1.3%
First Round38.3% 38.5% 9.0%
Second Round23.7% 23.9% 5.8%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 9.0% 1.9%
Elite Eight3.4% 3.5% 1.3%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 99.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 45 - 11
Quad 25 - 310 - 14
Quad 31 - 011 - 14
Quad 47 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 344   St. Francis (PA) W 85-59 99%    
  Nov 08, 2025 19   @ Gonzaga L 75-83 22%    
  Nov 11, 2025 364   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 97-60 100.0%   
  Nov 15, 2025 60   Nebraska W 75-73 57%    
  Nov 20, 2025 310   Oral Roberts W 86-63 98%    
  Nov 23, 2025 326   Alcorn St. W 82-58 98%    
  Nov 28, 2025 43   Marquette L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 02, 2025 67   @ Wake Forest L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 06, 2025 68   Arizona St. W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 13, 2025 73   Oklahoma St. W 80-76 62%    
  Dec 16, 2025 301   UMKC W 79-57 97%    
  Dec 22, 2025 350   Stetson W 88-61 99%    
  Dec 29, 2025 365   Mississippi Valley W 88-48 99.9%   
  Jan 03, 2026 30   Mississippi W 74-73 51%    
  Jan 07, 2026 33   @ Mississippi St. L 72-77 33%    
  Jan 10, 2026 35   @ Texas A&M L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 13, 2026 5   Florida L 74-81 29%    
  Jan 17, 2026 18   Alabama L 83-85 43%    
  Jan 20, 2026 70   @ South Carolina W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 24, 2026 37   @ Missouri L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 27, 2026 17   Arkansas L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 31, 2026 36   Texas W 74-73 54%    
  Feb 04, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 73-84 19%    
  Feb 07, 2026 41   @ Vanderbilt L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 14, 2026 51   Georgia W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 18, 2026 16   @ Tennessee L 63-72 23%    
  Feb 21, 2026 35   Texas A&M W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 24, 2026 22   Auburn L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 28, 2026 52   @ LSU L 73-75 44%    
  Mar 03, 2026 37   Missouri W 77-76 54%    
  Mar 07, 2026 36   @ Texas L 71-76 34%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 4.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.4 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.6 0.8 0.0 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.2 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 4.4 1.2 0.0 8.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 4.1 2.3 0.2 8.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 3.6 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.9 2.7 3.6 1.1 0.0 8.4 14th
15th 0.1 1.1 3.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 15th
16th 0.5 1.6 2.5 2.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 7.7 16th
Total 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.1 7.7 10.0 11.1 11.7 11.3 10.0 8.4 6.3 4.8 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 97.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 87.2% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 60.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 30.6% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 1.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 100.0% 42.4% 57.6% 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.5% 100.0% 23.7% 76.3% 1.9 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.1% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 2.6 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.0% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 3.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.1% 99.9% 10.6% 89.2% 4.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 4.8% 99.1% 7.1% 92.0% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
11-7 6.3% 96.7% 3.1% 93.5% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.6%
10-8 8.4% 89.9% 1.7% 88.2% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 89.7%
9-9 10.0% 74.3% 1.3% 73.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.6 74.0%
8-10 11.3% 46.4% 0.5% 45.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.0 6.0 46.1%
7-11 11.7% 18.2% 0.1% 18.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 9.6 18.1%
6-12 11.1% 5.1% 0.1% 5.0% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.5 5.0%
5-13 10.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.9 0.8%
4-14 7.7% 7.7
3-15 6.1% 6.1
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.7% 1.7
0-18 0.5% 0.5
Total 100% 40.6% 1.8% 38.8% 7.1 0.6 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.9 4.5 5.7 6.3 5.4 5.4 2.7 0.1 0.0 59.4 39.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.6 49.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0