Oklahoma
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.2#45
Expected Predictive Rating+15.2#26
Pace68.3#188
Improvement-1.3#241

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#28
First Shot+6.7#34
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#128
Layup/Dunks+3.5#66
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#275
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#138
Freethrows+3.9#15
Improvement+0.0#177

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#79
First Shot+3.5#75
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#167
Layups/Dunks-1.5#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows+3.1#19
Improvement-1.3#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 7.1% 12.7% 3.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.4% 70.1% 47.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.3% 70.0% 47.5%
Average Seed 8.9 8.5 9.3
.500 or above 96.9% 99.6% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 8.6% 15.4% 4.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 4.5% 16.1%
First Four14.4% 13.4% 15.0%
First Round49.2% 63.0% 40.2%
Second Round23.6% 32.7% 17.7%
Sweet Sixteen6.4% 8.8% 4.8%
Elite Eight2.1% 3.3% 1.4%
Final Four0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 39.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 37 - 11
Quad 23 - 29 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 13
Quad 47 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 341   Lindenwood W 93-60 98%     1 - 0 +18.7 +10.5 +6.7
  Nov 11, 2024 289   Northwestern St. W 73-57 96%     2 - 0 +6.0 -3.3 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2024 348   Stetson W 85-64 98%     3 - 0 +6.1 +2.2 +3.9
  Nov 21, 2024 354   Texas A&M - Commerce W 84-56 99%     4 - 0 +11.8 +5.7 +6.4
  Nov 27, 2024 81   Providence W 79-77 65%     5 - 0 +9.1 +9.5 -0.4
  Nov 28, 2024 13   Arizona W 82-77 29%     6 - 0 +22.0 +17.7 +4.3
  Nov 29, 2024 27   Louisville W 69-64 40%     7 - 0 +18.7 +10.0 +9.3
  Dec 03, 2024 104   Georgia Tech W 76-61 83%     8 - 0 +16.0 +10.6 +6.6
  Dec 07, 2024 332   Alcorn St. W 94-78 98%     9 - 0 +2.3 +12.3 -10.5
  Dec 14, 2024 101   Oklahoma St. W 80-65 74%     10 - 0 +19.6 +9.7 +9.7
  Dec 18, 2024 11   Michigan W 87-86 28%     11 - 0 +18.3 +21.3 -3.0
  Dec 22, 2024 339   Central Arkansas W 89-66 98%     12 - 0 +8.8 +6.4 +1.4
  Dec 29, 2024 330   Prairie View W 89-67 98%     13 - 0 +8.6 +13.2 -3.4
  Jan 04, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 79-107 15%     13 - 1 0 - 1 -5.8 +6.4 -9.6
  Jan 08, 2025 21   Texas A&M L 78-80 45%     13 - 2 0 - 2 +10.6 +19.9 -9.6
  Jan 11, 2025 34   @ Georgia L 62-72 34%     13 - 3 0 - 3 +5.5 +0.8 +4.5
  Jan 15, 2025 38   Texas L 73-77 57%     13 - 4 0 - 4 +5.3 +0.7 +4.8
  Jan 18, 2025 82   South Carolina W 82-62 75%     14 - 4 1 - 4 +24.1 +15.8 +9.1
  Jan 25, 2025 46   @ Arkansas L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 28, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M L 69-76 26%    
  Feb 01, 2025 48   Vanderbilt W 79-76 63%    
  Feb 04, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 71-86 8%    
  Feb 08, 2025 8   Tennessee L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 12, 2025 29   @ Missouri L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 63   LSU W 78-73 70%    
  Feb 18, 2025 5   @ Florida L 73-85 12%    
  Feb 22, 2025 23   Mississippi St. L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 26, 2025 15   Kentucky L 82-85 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 19   @ Mississippi L 69-76 25%    
  Mar 05, 2025 29   Missouri W 77-76 53%    
  Mar 08, 2025 38   @ Texas L 72-76 36%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.5 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 2.0 0.2 3.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.3 1.3 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.3 3.4 4.0 0.3 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 2.8 6.6 1.7 0.0 11.3 11th
12th 0.1 2.2 8.4 4.6 0.3 15.7 12th
13th 0.0 1.6 7.7 7.0 1.1 17.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.1 7.6 1.8 0.0 16.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 4.2 5.3 2.0 0.1 12.7 15th
16th 0.4 1.6 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.7 16th
Total 0.5 2.6 7.4 13.8 19.7 20.5 16.3 10.7 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 100.0% 1.4% 98.6% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
10-8 2.2% 100.0% 0.5% 99.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 100.0%
9-9 5.4% 100.0% 1.7% 98.3% 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.8 0.7 0.1 100.0%
8-10 10.7% 99.2% 0.4% 98.8% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.9 3.4 2.4 0.6 0.0 0.1 99.2%
7-11 16.3% 92.9% 0.1% 92.8% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.5 4.4 1.3 0.0 1.2 92.9%
6-12 20.5% 72.4% 0.2% 72.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.0 6.4 0.2 5.7 72.3%
5-13 19.7% 34.0% 0.1% 33.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.8 0.9 0.0 13.0 34.0%
4-14 13.8% 4.3% 4.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 13.2 4.3%
3-15 7.4% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 7.4 0.3%
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 56.4% 0.2% 56.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.7 6.0 7.6 10.5 10.8 12.9 1.4 0.0 43.6 56.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%