LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#60
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#47
Pace73.0#76
Improvement-0.6#225

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#73
First Shot+1.6#130
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#46
Layup/Dunks+2.9#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#251
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows+3.1#40
Improvement-0.6#230

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#54
First Shot+4.6#51
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#156
Layups/Dunks+1.4#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#39
Freethrows+0.8#127
Improvement+0.0#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 5.2% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.7% 29.9% 13.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.5% 29.7% 13.8%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 9.1
.500 or above 71.1% 71.6% 40.5%
.500 or above in Conference 16.7% 16.9% 7.7%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.4% 22.3% 35.0%
First Four5.3% 5.4% 3.1%
First Round26.8% 27.0% 12.2%
Second Round13.0% 13.1% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.7% 3.7% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.3% 0.4%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

Next Game: Stetson (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 12
Quad 24 - 28 - 15
Quad 31 - 010 - 15
Quad 48 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 326   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +22.8 +13.1 +8.0
  Nov 10, 2024 275   Alabama St. W 74-61 94%     2 - 0 +4.0 -6.7 +10.3
  Nov 14, 2024 64   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 40%     3 - 0 +22.6 +11.2 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2024 299   Charleston Southern W 77-68 95%     4 - 0 -1.3 +2.2 -3.2
  Nov 22, 2024 32   Pittsburgh L 63-74 37%     4 - 1 +1.4 -1.7 +2.7
  Nov 24, 2024 82   Central Florida W 109-102 3OT 59%     5 - 1 +13.7 +9.8 +1.9
  Nov 29, 2024 296   Northwestern St. W 77-53 95%     6 - 1 +14.0 +0.3 +13.8
  Dec 03, 2024 65   Florida St. W 85-75 64%     7 - 1 +15.5 +12.2 +2.9
  Dec 08, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-71 89%     8 - 1 +5.0 +7.0 -1.8
  Dec 14, 2024 49   SMU L 64-74 45%     8 - 2 +0.3 -7.4 +8.0
  Dec 17, 2024 336   Stetson W 88-65 99%    
  Dec 22, 2024 346   New Orleans W 89-65 99%    
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 85-52 99.9%   
  Jan 04, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 80-77 60%    
  Jan 07, 2025 51   @ Missouri L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 26   @ Mississippi L 71-79 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 29   Arkansas L 76-77 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 24   @ Texas A&M L 68-76 24%    
  Jan 25, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 77-89 13%    
  Jan 29, 2025 1   Auburn L 74-85 17%    
  Feb 01, 2025 33   Texas L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 40   @ Georgia L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 08, 2025 26   Mississippi L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 12, 2025 29   @ Arkansas L 73-80 27%    
  Feb 15, 2025 37   @ Oklahoma L 71-77 30%    
  Feb 18, 2025 69   South Carolina W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 8   Florida L 76-82 30%    
  Feb 25, 2025 4   Tennessee L 66-74 24%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 72-79 27%    
  Mar 04, 2025 11   @ Kentucky L 77-88 15%    
  Mar 08, 2025 24   Texas A&M L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 1.1 0.1 4.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 2.6 0.3 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 3.9 1.1 0.0 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.5 3.0 0.2 7.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 5.0 1.1 0.0 8.5 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 5.2 3.0 0.2 9.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 4.3 5.1 0.8 0.0 11.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 3.7 6.0 2.0 0.1 12.4 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 3.8 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 13.5 15th
16th 0.4 1.8 4.0 4.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 13.4 16th
Total 0.4 1.9 5.0 8.9 12.6 15.0 15.2 13.6 10.8 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 35.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 11.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.5% 100.0% 6.2% 93.8% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 1.3% 100.0% 3.1% 96.9% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.5% 99.8% 1.3% 98.5% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 4.6% 98.1% 1.1% 97.0% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
9-9 7.5% 92.7% 0.4% 92.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.5 92.7%
8-10 10.8% 71.4% 0.3% 71.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.0 2.6 1.5 0.0 3.1 71.3%
7-11 13.6% 33.5% 0.2% 33.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.5 0.3 9.0 33.4%
6-12 15.2% 7.8% 0.1% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 14.0 7.7%
5-13 15.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.9 0.8%
4-14 12.6% 12.6
3-15 8.9% 8.9
2-16 5.0% 5.0
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 29.7% 0.3% 29.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.8 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 0.6 70.3 29.5%