LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#63
Expected Predictive Rating+9.5#58
Pace72.1#89
Improvement-1.3#240

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#89
First Shot+0.4#164
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#23
Layup/Dunks+3.7#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#254
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#275
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement-0.3#199

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#52
First Shot+4.7#47
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks+2.2#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#87
Freethrows+1.6#70
Improvement-1.0#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 1.2% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 23.7% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.1% 23.4% 8.6%
Average Seed 9.7 9.3 9.8
.500 or above 54.4% 79.4% 51.7%
.500 or above in Conference 2.8% 9.5% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.9% 12.0% 28.6%
First Four4.2% 6.5% 3.9%
First Round7.8% 20.0% 6.5%
Second Round3.3% 7.7% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.7% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 10.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 14
Quad 24 - 27 - 16
Quad 32 - 09 - 16
Quad 48 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 347   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +20.2 +11.7 +6.8
  Nov 10, 2024 299   Alabama St. W 74-61 95%     2 - 0 +2.5 -7.6 +9.8
  Nov 14, 2024 89   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 48%     3 - 0 +20.1 +9.2 +11.2
  Nov 19, 2024 279   Charleston Southern W 77-68 94%     4 - 0 -0.4 +3.3 -3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 40   Pittsburgh L 63-74 38%     4 - 1 +0.8 -3.3 +3.7
  Nov 24, 2024 71   Central Florida W 109-102 3OT 53%     5 - 1 +14.8 +8.7 +4.1
  Nov 29, 2024 289   Northwestern St. W 77-53 95%     6 - 1 +14.0 -0.6 +14.8
  Dec 03, 2024 58   Florida St. W 85-75 57%     7 - 1 +16.8 +12.6 +3.8
  Dec 08, 2024 168   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-71 86%     8 - 1 +5.9 +7.4 -1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 37   SMU L 64-74 36%     8 - 2 +2.3 -7.1 +9.7
  Dec 17, 2024 348   Stetson W 99-53 98%     9 - 2 +31.1 +16.0 +15.0
  Dec 22, 2024 343   New Orleans W 86-70 97%     10 - 2 +1.5 -0.4 +0.9
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 110-45 99.7%    11 - 2 +37.0 +23.7 +12.6
  Jan 04, 2025 48   Vanderbilt L 72-80 52%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +0.0 +4.2 -4.5
  Jan 07, 2025 29   @ Missouri L 67-83 24%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +0.1 +1.9 -2.3
  Jan 11, 2025 19   @ Mississippi L 65-77 18%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +6.3 +2.4 +3.8
  Jan 14, 2025 46   Arkansas W 78-74 51%     12 - 5 1 - 3 +12.3 +9.6 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2025 21   @ Texas A&M L 57-68 19%     12 - 6 1 - 4 +7.1 -3.2 +9.7
  Jan 25, 2025 7   @ Alabama L 77-91 10%    
  Jan 29, 2025 2   Auburn L 72-84 14%    
  Feb 01, 2025 38   Texas L 73-74 48%    
  Feb 05, 2025 34   @ Georgia L 67-74 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 19   Mississippi L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 46   @ Arkansas L 72-77 30%    
  Feb 15, 2025 45   @ Oklahoma L 73-78 30%    
  Feb 18, 2025 82   South Carolina W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 5   Florida L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 25, 2025 8   Tennessee L 66-73 26%    
  Mar 01, 2025 23   @ Mississippi St. L 70-79 19%    
  Mar 04, 2025 15   @ Kentucky L 77-88 15%    
  Mar 08, 2025 21   Texas A&M L 69-73 37%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.2 1.9 1.5 0.2 3.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.7 5.5 3.2 0.1 10.6 12th
13th 0.0 1.7 7.2 5.7 0.7 15.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.7 7.9 9.0 1.8 0.1 20.5 14th
15th 0.1 1.9 8.4 9.9 2.7 0.2 23.2 15th
16th 1.8 5.4 5.2 2.0 0.1 14.5 16th
Total 1.9 7.4 15.3 21.5 20.8 15.6 10.2 4.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.6% 96.8% 96.8% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.8%
9-9 2.1% 90.4% 1.9% 88.5% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 90.2%
8-10 4.5% 72.6% 0.2% 72.4% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.0 1.2 72.5%
7-11 10.2% 31.2% 0.2% 31.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 0.2 7.0 31.0%
6-12 15.6% 6.5% 0.1% 6.5% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 14.6 6.5%
5-13 20.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 20.7 0.3%
4-14 21.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 21.5 0.0%
3-15 15.3% 15.3
2-16 7.4% 7.4
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18
Total 100% 10.2% 0.1% 10.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 3.7 0.4 89.9 10.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%