LSU
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #43
Expected Predictive Rating +10.9 #54
Pace 69.0 #174
Improvement -4.3 #343

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #45 B+ A B B+ B-
Defense #57 B+ B+ D+ B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.29 #59 +5.9 #20
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #197 0.82 #86 -0.1 #183
Three Pointers 37% #268 1.07 #99 -1.0 #210
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #52 +4.8 #56
Freethrows 19.6 #85 77% #32 15.2 #51
Second Chance 34.3% #75 1.25 #13 0.43 #28
Turnovers 14.5% #66
Total Offense +7.3 #45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.05 #57 +4.2 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #146 0.66 #47 +0.7 #139
Three Pointers 44% #97 0.98 #130 -0.7 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #57 +4.2 #58
Freethrows 16.8 #142 68% #26 11.4 #88
Second Chance 28.6% #99 0.89 #21 0.25 #36
Turnovers 15.2% #256
Total Defense +4.6 #57

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #116 -0.7% #105
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.6% #53 -7.4% #55
Possession Length 16.4 #91 18.5 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #103 0.11 #30
Improvement -2.7 #322 -1.6 #279

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.1% 5.7% 1.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.7% 56.7% 30.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.2% 56.0% 29.6%
Average Seed 9.3 8.8 9.5
.500 or above 93.7% 98.6% 92.4%
.500 or above in Conference 13.7% 29.3% 9.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.1% 7.8% 20.9%
First Four10.1% 11.3% 9.8%
First Round31.0% 51.0% 25.5%
Second Round14.4% 24.9% 11.6%
Sweet Sixteen3.3% 6.5% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.1% 2.3% 0.8%
Final Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 21.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 11
Quad 24 - 28 - 13
Quad 33 - 111 - 13
Quad 48 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 189 Tarleton St. W 96 - 60 93% +19  1 - 0 +31 +24 A+ A+ D+ +9 A+ A F
 Mon, Nov 10 235 New Orleans W 93 - 58 95% +17  2 - 0 +28 +10 B C+ A+ +17 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 13 192 Florida International W 98 - 81 93% +10  3 - 0 +12 +12 C A+ B+ -2 B B- F
 Tue, Nov 18 347 Alcorn St. W 107 - 81 99% +7  4 - 0 +11 +23 D- A+ B+ -13 F F D
 Fri, Nov 21 261 Nebraska Omaha W 99 - 73 96% +16  5 - 0 +17 +11 A+ F C- +4 B- A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 28 158 Drake W 71 - 62 86% +9  6 - 0 +9 +0 B- F A+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 99 DePaul W 96 - 63 74% +23  7 - 0 +38 +29 A+ A+ F +10 B A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 3 134 @Boston College W 78 - 69 OT 76% +4  8 - 0 +14 +5 D+ B- B +7 B- A- A
 Sun, Dec 7 15 Texas Tech L 58 - 82 28% -18  8 - 1 -6 -8 F D+ A+ +2 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 29 SMU W 89 - 77 41% +7  9 - 1 +26 +28 A+ A+ C -1 C B C+
 Fri, Dec 19 272 SE Louisiana W 78 - 65 96% +12  10 - 1 +4 +15 A+ F A+ -9 C+ F F
 Mon, Dec 22 317 Prairie View W 104 - 90 98% +2  11 - 1 +1 +19 C A- A+ -19 F C C
 Mon, Dec 29 244 Southern Miss W 90 - 62 95% +14  12 - 1 +20 +15 B- A A+ +5 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 34 @Texas A&M L 72 - 75 32% -4  12 - 2 0 - 1 +14 +5 C B D +9 B A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 69 South Carolina L 68 - 78 74% -16  12 - 3 0 - 2 -5 +4 C+ C F -10 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 21 @Vanderbilt L 73 - 84 21% -11  12 - 4 0 - 3 +9 +7 B+ C C- +3 A- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 25 Kentucky L 74 - 75 46% +8  12 - 5 0 - 4 +12 +10 A+ B- C- +2 A- A C-
 Sat, Jan 17 50 Missouri W 78 - 70 66% +7  13 - 5 1 - 4 +16 +17 C- A+ A+ -0 A+ D B-
 Tue, Jan 20 10 @Florida L 61 - 79 14% -10  13 - 6 1 - 5 +5 +2 C- A+ C- +2 A- B C
 Sat, Jan 24 20 @Arkansas L 78 - 86 21%
 Wed, Jan 28 76 Mississippi St. W 79 - 72 75%
 Sat, Jan 31 69 @South Carolina W 74 - 73 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 24 Georgia L 83 - 84 47%
 Tue, Feb 10 20 Arkansas L 81 - 83 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 22 @Tennessee L 70 - 78 24%
 Tue, Feb 17 38 @Texas L 77 - 81 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 17 Alabama L 85 - 88 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 62 @Mississippi W 74 - 73 50%
 Sat, Feb 28 57 Oklahoma W 80 - 75 69%
 Tue, Mar 3 27 @Auburn L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 Texas A&M W 81 - 80 54%
Totals 18 - 13 6 - 12 +12 +7 B+ A B +5 B+ B+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 2.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 1.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 3.0 0.3 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.9 2.1 0.0 6.5 9th
10th 0.1 3.2 5.3 0.6 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 1.6 7.5 2.6 0.1 11.8 11th
12th 0.5 6.7 6.3 0.5 14.0 12th
13th 0.2 3.9 8.0 1.7 0.0 13.8 13th
14th 0.1 2.1 7.2 3.3 0.1 12.8 14th
15th 0.0 1.2 4.7 4.3 0.5 0.0 10.7 15th
16th 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.2 0.8 0.0 8.9 16th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.8 10.2 16.7 20.2 19.2 13.7 8.6 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.3% 99.2% 4.4% 94.8% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
10-8 3.6% 98.5% 3.2% 95.3% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 98.4%
9-9 8.6% 93.9% 1.9% 92.0% 8.4 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.5 93.8%
8-10 13.7% 76.3% 1.1% 75.3% 9.6 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 4.2 1.9 3.3 76.1%
7-11 19.2% 45.9% 0.8% 45.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.9 4.8 0.0 10.4 45.4%
6-12 20.2% 15.2% 0.4% 14.8% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 0.2 17.1 14.9%
5-13 16.7% 1.3% 0.0% 1.2% 11.1 0.2 0.0 16.5 1.2%
4-14 10.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 10.2 0.0%
3-15 4.8% 4.8
2-16 1.3% 1.3
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 35.7% 0.8% 34.9% 9.3 64.3 35.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%