LSU
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.9#72
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#65
Pace71.2#96
Improvement-1.6#266

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#94
First Shot-0.1#176
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#26
Layup/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#280
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement-0.4#201

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#59
First Shot+4.5#56
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#143
Layups/Dunks+2.1#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#87
Freethrows+1.6#74
Improvement-1.2#256
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 3.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 3.8% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.1
.500 or above 26.2% 63.0% 20.2%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.2% 0.7% 5.9%
First Four0.7% 3.2% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 2.1% 0.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida (Home) - 14.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 14
Quad 22 - 25 - 16
Quad 33 - 07 - 16
Quad 48 - 015 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 336   Louisiana Monroe W 95-60 97%     1 - 0 +21.0 +12.3 +6.9
  Nov 10, 2024 311   Alabama St. W 74-61 95%     2 - 0 +1.7 -6.9 +8.3
  Nov 14, 2024 56   @ Kansas St. W 76-65 31%     3 - 0 +24.1 +11.9 +12.4
  Nov 19, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 77-68 94%     4 - 0 -0.5 +3.3 -3.4
  Nov 22, 2024 52   Pittsburgh L 63-74 39%     4 - 1 -0.4 -3.9 +3.1
  Nov 24, 2024 81   Central Florida W 109-102 3OT 53%     5 - 1 +14.0 +7.3 +4.7
  Nov 29, 2024 272   Northwestern St. W 77-53 93%     6 - 1 +15.2 +1.8 +13.5
  Dec 03, 2024 82   Florida St. W 85-75 63%     7 - 1 +14.3 +13.0 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 180   Florida Gulf Coast W 80-71 86%     8 - 1 +5.4 +5.7 -0.1
  Dec 14, 2024 37   SMU L 64-74 32%     8 - 2 +2.6 -6.8 +9.7
  Dec 17, 2024 349   Stetson W 99-53 97%     9 - 2 +30.6 +16.1 +14.3
  Dec 22, 2024 353   New Orleans W 86-70 98%     10 - 2 +0.3 -1.0 +0.2
  Dec 29, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 110-45 99.8%    11 - 2 +34.1 +22.0 +11.4
  Jan 04, 2025 53   Vanderbilt L 72-80 49%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +0.1 +3.4 -3.6
  Jan 07, 2025 15   @ Missouri L 67-83 13%     11 - 4 0 - 2 +4.2 +3.2 +0.6
  Jan 11, 2025 25   @ Mississippi L 65-77 18%     11 - 5 0 - 3 +5.4 +2.0 +3.3
  Jan 14, 2025 35   Arkansas W 78-74 41%     12 - 5 1 - 3 +14.2 +11.7 +2.4
  Jan 18, 2025 20   @ Texas A&M L 57-68 16%     12 - 6 1 - 4 +7.5 -1.7 +8.7
  Jan 25, 2025 6   @ Alabama L 73-80 10%     12 - 7 1 - 5 +15.0 +1.2 +14.4
  Jan 29, 2025 1   Auburn L 74-87 11%     12 - 8 1 - 6 +8.0 +6.1 +2.4
  Feb 01, 2025 36   Texas L 58-89 41%     12 - 9 1 - 7 -20.8 -8.2 -13.9
  Feb 05, 2025 44   @ Georgia L 62-81 27%     12 - 10 1 - 8 -4.8 -0.4 -5.1
  Feb 08, 2025 25   Mississippi L 70-72 33%     12 - 11 1 - 9 +10.3 +5.1 +5.2
  Feb 12, 2025 35   @ Arkansas L 58-70 24%     12 - 12 1 - 10 +3.3 +0.1 +2.2
  Feb 15, 2025 50   @ Oklahoma W 82-79 30%     13 - 12 2 - 10 +16.4 +11.3 +5.0
  Feb 18, 2025 84   South Carolina W 81-67 64%     14 - 12 3 - 10 +18.2 +15.1 +3.7
  Feb 22, 2025 4   Florida L 71-83 14%    
  Feb 25, 2025 5   Tennessee L 62-72 20%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   @ Mississippi St. L 69-78 18%    
  Mar 04, 2025 17   @ Kentucky L 75-87 13%    
  Mar 08, 2025 20   Texas A&M L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.2 3.8 12th
13th 1.8 7.0 1.8 0.0 10.6 13th
14th 4.3 16.7 9.0 0.4 30.3 14th
15th 30.4 21.1 2.1 0.0 53.6 15th
16th 0.6 0.0 0.6 16th
Total 35.3 39.6 19.4 4.9 0.8 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.8% 36.3% 36.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5 36.3%
6-12 4.9% 8.8% 8.8% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.5 8.8%
5-13 19.4% 0.4% 0.4% 11.4 0.1 0.0 19.3 0.4%
4-14 39.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 39.6
3-15 35.3% 35.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 99.2 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 34.0%