Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#4
Expected Predictive Rating+25.2#2
Pace65.5#270
Improvement-1.9#293

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#19
First Shot+6.0#40
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#57
Layup/Dunks+3.3#72
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#112
Freethrows+1.9#79
Improvement-2.2#329

Defense
Total Defense+11.8#1
First Shot+10.2#2
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#65
Layups/Dunks+7.1#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows+0.1#175
Improvement+0.4#158
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 12.4% 12.5% 4.7%
#1 Seed 44.8% 44.9% 14.1%
Top 2 Seed 75.5% 75.5% 47.1%
Top 4 Seed 94.6% 94.6% 82.4%
Top 6 Seed 98.2% 98.2% 96.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.0 2.0 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.7% 94.8% 89.4%
Conference Champion 24.6% 24.7% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round99.8% 99.8% 100.0%
Second Round95.9% 95.9% 91.8%
Sweet Sixteen71.7% 71.7% 65.9%
Elite Eight47.1% 47.1% 38.8%
Final Four28.1% 28.1% 18.8%
Championship Game16.0% 16.0% 9.4%
National Champion8.9% 8.9% 4.7%

Next Game: Western Carolina (Home) - 99.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 58 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 113 - 6
Quad 25 - 018 - 6
Quad 34 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 240   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 99%     1 - 0 +8.9 +6.3 +3.2
  Nov 09, 2024 50   @ Louisville W 77-55 74%     2 - 0 +35.2 +13.4 +22.7
  Nov 13, 2024 212   Montana W 92-57 98%     3 - 0 +29.5 +17.0 +13.3
  Nov 17, 2024 261   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +26.5 +25.9 -0.3
  Nov 21, 2024 93   Virginia W 64-42 90%     5 - 0 +27.8 +7.5 +23.8
  Nov 22, 2024 12   Baylor W 77-62 65%     6 - 0 +30.9 +19.9 +13.3
  Nov 27, 2024 327   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +30.2 +10.0 +26.1
  Dec 03, 2024 97   Syracuse W 96-70 94%     8 - 0 +28.4 +22.5 +5.8
  Dec 10, 2024 91   Miami (FL) W 75-62 90%     9 - 0 +19.0 +3.1 +16.4
  Dec 14, 2024 16   @ Illinois W 66-64 58%     10 - 0 +20.1 +6.2 +14.0
  Dec 17, 2024 308   Western Carolina W 84-53 99.8%   
  Dec 23, 2024 130   Middle Tennessee W 79-58 98%    
  Dec 31, 2024 196   Norfolk St. W 81-56 99%    
  Jan 04, 2025 29   Arkansas W 76-66 83%    
  Jan 07, 2025 8   @ Florida L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 33   @ Texas W 70-65 67%    
  Jan 15, 2025 40   Georgia W 74-63 86%    
  Jan 18, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 21, 2025 28   Mississippi St. W 75-65 82%    
  Jan 25, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 28, 2025 11   Kentucky W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 8   Florida W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 05, 2025 51   Missouri W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 08, 2025 37   @ Oklahoma W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 11, 2025 11   @ Kentucky L 76-77 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 24   @ Texas A&M W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 25, 2025 60   @ LSU W 74-66 76%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   Alabama W 79-74 67%    
  Mar 05, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 74-59 91%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.4 7.6 6.3 2.8 0.6 24.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 7.2 7.9 4.0 0.8 0.1 22.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.0 6.0 1.9 0.2 15.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.9 1.4 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 4.1 1.4 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 1.7 0.1 5.7 6th
7th 0.2 1.8 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.8 5.3 8.5 11.8 14.9 16.5 15.4 11.8 7.1 2.9 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.3% 2.8    2.6 0.2
16-2 88.3% 6.3    5.0 1.2 0.0
15-3 64.8% 7.6    4.4 2.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 35.2% 5.4    1.9 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 11.1% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.6% 24.6 14.7 7.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 49.1% 50.9% 1.1 0.5 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.9% 100.0% 40.4% 59.6% 1.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 7.1% 100.0% 36.0% 64.0% 1.1 6.2 0.9 0.0 100.0%
15-3 11.8% 100.0% 29.4% 70.6% 1.2 9.3 2.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 15.4% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 1.3 10.4 4.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.5% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 1.6 8.2 7.0 1.1 0.1 100.0%
12-6 14.9% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 1.9 4.9 7.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.8% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 2.3 2.1 5.0 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 8.5% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 2.9 0.5 2.3 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-9 5.3% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 3.6 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 2.8% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 1.5% 99.5% 1.7% 97.7% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
6-12 0.6% 96.2% 2.1% 94.1% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.1%
5-13 0.3% 81.7% 0.8% 80.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 81.5%
4-14 0.1% 21.9% 21.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 21.9%
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.8% 19.1% 80.8% 2.0 44.8 30.7 13.3 5.8 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.0 95.7 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 88.9 11.1