Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.8#9
Expected Predictive Rating+20.0#7
Pace69.8#168
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.3#23
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#4
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.2% 4.3% 1.3%
#1 Seed 18.2% 18.3% 6.9%
Top 2 Seed 36.5% 36.8% 17.3%
Top 4 Seed 64.7% 65.1% 38.4%
Top 6 Seed 80.5% 80.8% 58.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.3% 94.5% 80.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.4% 93.7% 79.3%
Average Seed 3.8 3.8 5.1
.500 or above 98.4% 98.5% 90.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 86.8% 69.2%
Conference Champion 18.7% 18.9% 10.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 4.4%
First Round93.4% 93.6% 79.2%
Second Round79.0% 79.3% 59.2%
Sweet Sixteen50.7% 50.9% 34.8%
Elite Eight28.1% 28.3% 15.1%
Final Four14.8% 14.9% 7.8%
Championship Game7.5% 7.5% 3.8%
National Champion3.7% 3.7% 1.8%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 7
Quad 26 - 114 - 8
Quad 34 - 018 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 217   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 97%     1 - 0 +10.0 +7.1 +3.5
  Nov 09, 2024 49   @ Louisville W 77-55 65%     2 - 0 +34.7 +13.5 +22.2
  Nov 13, 2024 218   Montana W 92-57 97%     3 - 0 +29.0 +17.0 +12.8
  Nov 17, 2024 215   Austin Peay W 79-56 98%    
  Nov 21, 2024 78   Virginia W 65-56 81%    
  Nov 27, 2024 314   Tennessee Martin W 90-62 99%    
  Dec 03, 2024 89   Syracuse W 83-69 90%    
  Dec 10, 2024 33   Miami (FL) W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 14, 2024 20   @ Illinois W 75-74 53%    
  Dec 17, 2024 263   Western Carolina W 80-55 99%    
  Dec 23, 2024 129   Middle Tennessee W 77-59 94%    
  Dec 31, 2024 230   Norfolk St. W 81-58 98%    
  Jan 04, 2025 19   Arkansas W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 07, 2025 21   @ Florida W 78-77 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 23   @ Texas W 72-71 54%    
  Jan 15, 2025 68   Georgia W 79-67 85%    
  Jan 18, 2025 83   @ Vanderbilt W 77-70 72%    
  Jan 21, 2025 26   Mississippi St. W 77-70 73%    
  Jan 25, 2025 3   @ Auburn L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 28, 2025 12   Kentucky W 80-76 62%    
  Feb 01, 2025 21   Florida W 81-74 71%    
  Feb 05, 2025 71   Missouri W 77-65 85%    
  Feb 08, 2025 52   @ Oklahoma W 72-68 65%    
  Feb 11, 2025 12   @ Kentucky L 77-79 41%    
  Feb 15, 2025 83   Vanderbilt W 80-67 86%    
  Feb 22, 2025 28   @ Texas A&M W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 48   @ LSU W 75-71 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 7   Alabama W 79-77 57%    
  Mar 05, 2025 61   @ Mississippi W 73-68 67%    
  Mar 08, 2025 64   South Carolina W 75-64 83%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.2 3.9 5.6 4.9 2.4 0.6 18.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.2 5.5 3.0 0.6 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.7 5.4 1.9 0.2 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.7 1.8 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.5 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.9 1.4 0.1 3.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.7 8.1 10.4 12.4 13.4 13.5 11.4 8.8 5.5 2.4 0.6 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 98.2% 2.4    2.2 0.1
16-2 89.5% 4.9    3.9 1.0 0.0
15-3 63.9% 5.6    3.2 2.1 0.4 0.0
14-4 34.2% 3.9    1.3 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.8% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.7% 18.7 11.3 5.3 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 52.2% 47.8% 1.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.4% 100.0% 41.9% 58.1% 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 5.5% 100.0% 33.6% 66.4% 1.3 3.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 8.8% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.6 4.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.4% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 2.0 3.9 4.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 13.5% 100.0% 17.5% 82.5% 2.6 2.2 4.6 4.2 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.4% 100.0% 11.4% 88.6% 3.3 0.8 2.6 4.6 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 12.4% 99.9% 6.4% 93.6% 4.3 0.1 1.0 2.6 3.6 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 10.4% 99.5% 5.7% 93.8% 5.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.1 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 8.1% 97.0% 2.9% 94.1% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.9%
8-10 5.7% 88.0% 1.9% 86.2% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.7 87.8%
7-11 3.7% 61.6% 0.4% 61.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.2 1.4 61.5%
6-12 2.1% 32.2% 0.5% 31.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.4 31.9%
5-13 1.1% 7.8% 7.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 7.8%
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 94.3% 13.9% 80.5% 3.8 18.2 18.3 15.8 12.4 9.4 6.5 4.2 2.9 2.3 2.0 2.2 0.4 5.7 93.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 96.7 3.3