Tennessee
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.2#16
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#37
Pace68.8#202
Improvement-1.7#302

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#25
First Shot+1.3#141
After Offensive Rebound+7.0#2
Layup/Dunks+1.6#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#102
Freethrows-1.5#259
Improvement-0.3#208

Defense
Total Defense+8.8#12
First Shot+6.5#25
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#57
Layups/Dunks+3.8#59
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#75
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement-1.4#307
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 4.4% 6.6% 2.4%
Top 2 Seed 13.1% 18.0% 8.3%
Top 4 Seed 41.5% 50.6% 32.5%
Top 6 Seed 67.0% 75.7% 58.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.8% 95.0% 86.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.7% 94.2% 85.3%
Average Seed 5.1 4.6 5.6
.500 or above 97.0% 98.8% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 80.2% 83.5% 76.9%
Conference Champion 13.4% 16.0% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four3.3% 2.1% 4.4%
First Round89.7% 94.3% 85.2%
Second Round73.0% 79.3% 66.6%
Sweet Sixteen40.0% 45.6% 34.4%
Elite Eight18.3% 21.4% 15.2%
Final Four8.5% 10.0% 6.9%
Championship Game3.6% 4.2% 2.9%
National Champion1.5% 1.9% 1.1%

Next Game: Illinois (Neutral) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 38 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 32 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 191 Mercer W 76-61 97%     1 - 0 +9.9 -0.7 +10.6
  Sat, Nov 8 181 Northern Kentucky W 95-56 97%     2 - 0 +34.5 +20.1 +14.6
  Wed, Nov 12 343 North Florida W 99-66 99%     3 - 0 +18.7 +9.0 +7.1
  Mon, Nov 17 217 Rice W 91-66 98%     4 - 0 +18.6 +16.7 +2.4
  Thu, Nov 20 249 Tennessee St. W 89-60 98%     5 - 0 +21.2 +3.7 +14.1
  Mon, Nov 24 120 Rutgers W 85-60 90%     6 - 0 +28.1 +18.7 +10.6
  Tue, Nov 25 7 Houston W 76-73 40%     7 - 0 +22.9 +26.1 -2.7
  Wed, Nov 26 18 Kansas L 76-81 54%     7 - 1 +11.1 +13.5 -2.5
  Tue, Dec 2 61 @Syracuse L 60-62 69%     7 - 2 +10.1 -4.5 +14.6
  Sat, Dec 6 17 Illinois W 77-76 50%    
  Tue, Dec 16 14 Louisville W 79-77 58%    
  Sun, Dec 21 360 Gardner-Webb W 94-59 99.9%   
  Tue, Dec 30 352 South Carolina St. W 90-57 99.9%   
  Sat, Jan 3 22 @Arkansas L 76-77 47%    
  Tue, Jan 6 50 Texas W 80-70 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 15 @Florida L 73-77 37%    
  Tue, Jan 13 38 Texas A&M W 81-73 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 23 Kentucky W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 11 @Alabama L 81-86 33%    
  Tue, Jan 27 19 @Georgia L 82-83 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 20 Auburn W 78-73 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 58 Mississippi W 78-67 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 23 @Kentucky L 75-76 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 81 @Mississippi St. W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 29 LSU W 78-72 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 41 Oklahoma W 80-72 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 12 @Vanderbilt L 76-80 35%    
  Tue, Feb 24 37 @Missouri W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 11 Alabama W 84-83 55%    
  Tue, Mar 3 89 @South Carolina W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Mar 7 12 Vanderbilt W 79-77 55%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.0 4.2 3.7 2.3 0.7 0.1 13.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.5 5.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 5.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.7 4.5 0.8 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.3 1.6 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.4 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.3 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.3 0.2 5.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 3.0 0.6 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.2 2.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.1 5.5 8.6 11.1 12.6 14.8 14.1 11.3 8.2 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 95.8% 2.3    2.1 0.2 0.0
15-3 79.8% 3.7    2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.9% 4.2    1.7 1.8 0.6 0.1
13-5 17.7% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 7.5 3.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.0 0.1 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 45.5% 54.5% 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.4% 100.0% 28.6% 71.4% 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 4.6% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 2.1 1.2 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.2% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.7 0.9 2.6 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.3% 100.0% 20.9% 79.1% 3.4 0.5 1.8 4.1 3.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
12-6 14.1% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.2 0.2 0.9 3.2 4.5 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 14.8% 99.9% 9.3% 90.6% 5.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.5 4.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 12.6% 99.4% 5.3% 94.1% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.0 3.6 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 11.1% 97.2% 3.4% 93.8% 7.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.2 3.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 97.1%
8-10 8.6% 85.4% 2.5% 82.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.0 1.3 85.0%
7-11 5.5% 54.6% 1.0% 53.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.2 0.1 2.5 54.1%
6-12 3.1% 21.9% 1.3% 20.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.5 20.9%
5-13 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 1.6 2.0%
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 90.8% 11.4% 79.4% 5.1 4.4 8.7 13.9 14.5 13.9 11.6 8.4 5.7 3.5 3.3 2.8 0.2 9.2 89.7%