Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+19.6#6
Expected Predictive Rating+20.4#4
Pace62.4#331
Improvement-2.5#295

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#44
First Shot+4.3#65
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#74
Layup/Dunks+2.9#79
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#123
Freethrows+1.0#118
Improvement-3.8#344

Defense
Total Defense+13.4#1
First Shot+11.6#3
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#53
Layups/Dunks+6.5#18
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#102
Freethrows+2.4#40
Improvement+1.3#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.4% 4.0% 1.6%
#1 Seed 26.0% 29.4% 15.5%
Top 2 Seed 65.8% 71.0% 49.7%
Top 4 Seed 95.1% 97.1% 88.9%
Top 6 Seed 99.2% 99.7% 97.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.1 2.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.3% 98.4% 89.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round96.3% 97.0% 94.2%
Sweet Sixteen68.0% 69.8% 62.2%
Elite Eight40.4% 42.0% 35.7%
Final Four21.1% 22.1% 17.8%
Championship Game10.6% 11.2% 8.5%
National Champion5.3% 5.8% 4.1%

Next Game: Missouri (Home) - 75.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 58 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 211 - 7
Quad 24 - 015 - 8
Quad 35 - 019 - 8
Quad 46 - 026 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 236   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 98%     1 - 0 +9.1 +6.4 +3.2
  Nov 09, 2024 27   @ Louisville W 77-55 60%     2 - 0 +38.9 +14.7 +25.1
  Nov 13, 2024 207   Montana W 92-57 98%     3 - 0 +30.2 +16.9 +14.1
  Nov 17, 2024 296   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +25.1 +24.0 +0.2
  Nov 21, 2024 97   Virginia W 64-42 91%     5 - 0 +26.9 +4.3 +26.1
  Nov 22, 2024 20   Baylor W 77-62 64%     6 - 0 +30.8 +20.5 +12.5
  Nov 27, 2024 307   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +32.1 +9.8 +28.2
  Dec 03, 2024 104   Syracuse W 96-70 94%     8 - 0 +27.9 +23.8 +4.0
  Dec 10, 2024 169   Miami (FL) W 75-62 96%     9 - 0 +12.9 -0.4 +13.7
  Dec 14, 2024 13   @ Illinois W 66-64 50%     10 - 0 +21.7 +7.1 +14.7
  Dec 17, 2024 350   Western Carolina W 84-36 99.6%    11 - 0 +32.7 +2.3 +28.3
  Dec 23, 2024 120   Middle Tennessee W 82-64 96%     12 - 0 +17.8 +9.5 +8.3
  Dec 31, 2024 185   Norfolk St. W 67-52 97%     13 - 0 +11.2 +2.2 +11.5
  Jan 04, 2025 43   Arkansas W 76-52 84%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +33.2 +14.6 +20.4
  Jan 07, 2025 4   @ Florida L 43-73 39%     14 - 1 1 - 1 -7.6 -18.3 +9.5
  Jan 11, 2025 30   @ Texas W 74-70 61%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +20.6 +19.4 +1.8
  Jan 15, 2025 37   Georgia W 74-56 83%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +27.5 +14.2 +14.8
  Jan 18, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 76%     16 - 2 3 - 2 +11.3 +15.3 -4.2
  Jan 21, 2025 35   Mississippi St. W 68-56 80%     17 - 2 4 - 2 +22.7 +8.8 +15.6
  Jan 25, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 51-53 28%     17 - 3 4 - 3 +23.7 -6.9 +30.3
  Jan 28, 2025 22   Kentucky L 73-78 73%     17 - 4 4 - 4 +8.2 +5.8 +2.2
  Feb 01, 2025 4   Florida W 64-44 59%     18 - 4 5 - 4 +37.4 +5.1 +34.3
  Feb 05, 2025 23   Missouri W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 08, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 11, 2025 22   @ Kentucky W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 75-63 89%    
  Feb 22, 2025 19   @ Texas A&M W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 71   @ LSU W 71-62 79%    
  Mar 01, 2025 5   Alabama W 76-74 60%    
  Mar 05, 2025 26   @ Mississippi W 67-64 57%    
  Mar 08, 2025 79   South Carolina W 69-54 92%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 0.4 0.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.8 7.1 3.3 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.4 11.7 6.9 0.3 21.2 3rd
4th 0.6 8.6 9.0 0.7 0.0 19.0 4th
5th 0.1 4.1 10.1 2.0 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.7 7.6 3.5 0.1 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 4.6 0.5 7.6 7th
8th 0.5 3.2 1.2 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 1.5 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.3 10th
11th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.7 3.0 8.0 18.3 25.3 25.6 15.0 4.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 10.8% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.1% 100.0% 25.6% 74.4% 1.3 3.0 1.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.0% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 1.5 8.6 5.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
12-6 25.6% 100.0% 17.0% 83.0% 1.8 8.9 13.5 3.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 25.3% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 2.2 4.3 12.4 6.9 1.6 0.1 100.0%
10-8 18.3% 100.0% 8.7% 91.3% 2.8 1.1 5.9 7.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
9-9 8.0% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 3.6 0.1 1.1 2.6 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
8-10 3.0% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 5.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.7% 100.0% 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 2.3 26.0 39.8 20.7 8.7 2.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9% 100.0% 1.2 76.7 22.1 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3% 100.0% 1.3 72.8 27.2