Tennessee
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.2#6
Expected Predictive Rating+21.7#6
Pace61.9#336
Improvement-4.0#325

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#24
First Shot+5.9#46
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#47
Layup/Dunks+3.7#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#245
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#106
Freethrows+1.3#100
Improvement-0.5#216

Defense
Total Defense+12.0#2
First Shot+10.5#3
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#64
Layups/Dunks+6.2#23
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#123
Freethrows+2.2#50
Improvement-3.4#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.1% 2.4% 1.2%
#1 Seed 25.7% 29.2% 17.6%
Top 2 Seed 85.9% 89.4% 77.8%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.8 2.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.6% 97.7% 97.4%
Sweet Sixteen69.9% 70.0% 69.9%
Elite Eight43.4% 43.4% 43.4%
Final Four20.8% 20.9% 20.6%
Championship Game10.2% 10.2% 10.1%
National Champion4.2% 4.2% 4.3%

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 66 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 111 - 7
Quad 25 - 015 - 7
Quad 35 - 020 - 7
Quad 46 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 272   Gardner-Webb W 80-64 99%     1 - 0 +7.1 +5.6 +2.1
  Nov 09, 2024 23   @ Louisville W 77-55 56%     2 - 0 +40.7 +16.6 +25.0
  Nov 13, 2024 163   Montana W 92-57 97%     3 - 0 +32.1 +18.1 +14.9
  Nov 17, 2024 278   Austin Peay W 103-68 99%     4 - 0 +25.7 +22.8 +2.0
  Nov 21, 2024 99   Virginia W 64-42 92%     5 - 0 +26.8 +2.5 +27.8
  Nov 22, 2024 26   Baylor W 77-62 70%     6 - 0 +29.8 +20.9 +11.0
  Nov 27, 2024 306   Tennessee Martin W 78-35 99%     7 - 0 +31.8 +9.8 +28.0
  Dec 03, 2024 100   Syracuse W 96-70 95%     8 - 0 +27.8 +22.6 +5.1
  Dec 10, 2024 173   Miami (FL) W 75-62 96%     9 - 0 +12.2 -0.4 +13.0
  Dec 14, 2024 18   @ Illinois W 66-64 53%     10 - 0 +21.6 +5.4 +16.3
  Dec 17, 2024 339   Western Carolina W 84-36 99.6%    11 - 0 +33.6 +1.6 +29.9
  Dec 23, 2024 118   Middle Tennessee W 82-64 96%     12 - 0 +18.2 +8.9 +9.2
  Dec 31, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 67-52 98%     13 - 0 +11.0 +1.4 +12.1
  Jan 04, 2025 38   Arkansas W 76-52 83%     14 - 0 1 - 0 +34.3 +15.9 +20.2
  Jan 07, 2025 3   @ Florida L 43-73 28%     14 - 1 1 - 1 -3.8 -17.0 +12.1
  Jan 11, 2025 44   @ Texas W 74-70 72%     15 - 1 2 - 1 +18.3 +17.9 +1.0
  Jan 15, 2025 31   Georgia W 74-56 80%     16 - 1 3 - 1 +29.3 +13.8 +16.9
  Jan 18, 2025 48   @ Vanderbilt L 75-76 73%     16 - 2 3 - 2 +12.9 +14.6 -1.7
  Jan 21, 2025 34   Mississippi St. W 68-56 81%     17 - 2 4 - 2 +22.9 +8.5 +16.0
  Jan 25, 2025 2   @ Auburn L 51-53 26%     17 - 3 4 - 3 +25.0 -6.1 +30.9
  Jan 28, 2025 14   Kentucky L 73-78 70%     17 - 4 4 - 4 +9.9 +7.4 +2.3
  Feb 01, 2025 3   Florida W 64-44 48%     18 - 4 5 - 4 +40.7 +6.1 +36.7
  Feb 05, 2025 19   Missouri W 85-81 72%     19 - 4 6 - 4 +18.0 +18.2 +0.0
  Feb 08, 2025 40   @ Oklahoma W 70-52 68%     20 - 4 7 - 4 +33.4 +8.9 +26.0
  Feb 11, 2025 14   @ Kentucky L 64-75 49%     20 - 5 7 - 5 +9.4 +3.7 +4.6
  Feb 15, 2025 48   Vanderbilt W 81-76 86%     21 - 5 8 - 5 +13.4 +17.7 -3.8
  Feb 22, 2025 22   @ Texas A&M W 77-69 54%     22 - 5 9 - 5 +27.1 +20.0 +7.6
  Feb 25, 2025 80   @ LSU W 65-59 84%     23 - 5 10 - 5 +15.8 +8.9 +7.8
  Mar 01, 2025 5   Alabama W 79-76 57%     24 - 5 11 - 5 +21.3 +6.7 +14.4
  Mar 05, 2025 29   @ Mississippi L 76-78 62%     24 - 6 11 - 6 +15.0 +19.2 -4.3
  Mar 08, 2025 69   South Carolina W 75-65 91%     25 - 6 12 - 6 +15.3 +11.7 +4.3
Projected Record 25 - 6 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 100.0% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 1.9 25.7 60.1 13.5 0.7 100.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 1.9 25.7 60.1 13.5 0.7 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.5% 100.0% 1.6 43.6 52.3 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.0% 100.0% 1.8 28.5 61.9 9.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 41.3% 100.0% 1.9 25.2 61.8 12.5 0.5
Lose Out 30.2% 100.0% 2.1 17.6 60.2 20.8 1.5