Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#129
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#44
Pace66.9#258
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#195
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#85
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.1% 13.2% 7.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.7 12.5 13.2
.500 or above 67.0% 75.8% 51.2%
.500 or above in Conference 66.0% 71.0% 56.9%
Conference Champion 12.3% 15.0% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 3.8% 7.2%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round10.9% 12.9% 7.2%
Second Round2.1% 2.6% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Murray St. (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 11
Quad 48 - 216 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 237   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 60%     1 - 0 +22.5 +5.6 +16.4
  Nov 13, 2024 248   Evansville W 80-63 81%     2 - 0 +9.7 +0.5 +8.5
  Nov 16, 2024 136   Murray St. W 68-64 64%    
  Nov 21, 2024 158   Ohio W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 01, 2024 101   @ UAB L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 07, 2024 151   @ Belmont L 72-74 43%    
  Dec 16, 2024 181   California Baptist W 69-63 71%    
  Dec 19, 2024 143   Lipscomb W 75-71 64%    
  Dec 23, 2024 9   @ Tennessee L 59-77 6%    
  Jan 02, 2025 267   @ Florida International W 75-70 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 104   @ Liberty L 62-68 31%    
  Jan 09, 2025 176   Kennesaw St. W 80-74 70%    
  Jan 11, 2025 210   Jacksonville St. W 70-62 75%    
  Jan 18, 2025 118   Western Kentucky W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 23, 2025 123   @ Sam Houston St. L 70-74 37%    
  Jan 25, 2025 92   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 30, 2025 147   New Mexico St. W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 01, 2025 194   UTEP W 72-65 72%    
  Feb 06, 2025 210   @ Jacksonville St. W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 176   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 15, 2025 118   @ Western Kentucky L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 20, 2025 92   Louisiana Tech L 67-68 48%    
  Feb 22, 2025 123   Sam Houston St. W 73-71 58%    
  Feb 27, 2025 147   @ New Mexico St. L 65-67 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 194   @ UTEP W 69-68 53%    
  Mar 06, 2025 104   Liberty W 66-65 50%    
  Mar 08, 2025 267   Florida International W 78-67 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.4 3.1 1.8 0.7 0.1 12.3 1st
2nd 0.2 1.6 4.2 4.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.2 4.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.5 3.9 1.0 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.4 3.6 0.7 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.8 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.3 6.5 8.6 9.9 11.8 12.1 11.4 10.4 8.0 5.8 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.0% 1.8    1.6 0.2
15-3 83.5% 3.1    2.3 0.7 0.0
14-4 59.0% 3.4    1.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 28.4% 2.3    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1
12-6 7.7% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 7.6 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 70.7% 46.3% 24.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.5%
17-1 0.7% 60.3% 46.1% 14.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 26.3%
16-2 1.9% 47.9% 41.6% 6.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.0 10.8%
15-3 3.7% 37.3% 35.1% 2.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 3.5%
14-4 5.8% 27.8% 27.2% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 4.2 0.8%
13-5 8.0% 20.4% 20.4% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.3 0.1%
12-6 10.4% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.0 8.8 0.0%
11-7 11.4% 10.1% 10.1% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 10.3
10-8 12.1% 7.7% 7.7% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.2
9-9 11.8% 6.0% 6.0% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 11.1
8-10 9.9% 3.3% 3.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 9.6
7-11 8.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.4
6-12 6.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.4
5-13 4.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.5
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 11.1% 10.7% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.7 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 88.9 0.4%