South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#176
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#189
Pace70.4#120
Improvement+0.8#153

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#223
First Shot+0.4#158
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#305
Layup/Dunks+0.6#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#213
Freethrows+1.9#78
Improvement-2.1#287

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#149
First Shot+1.0#141
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#203
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#40
Freethrows-1.5#280
Improvement+2.9#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.7 15.7
.500 or above 5.5% 15.6% 1.5%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 22.0% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Home) - 28.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 49 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 4   Florida L 83-98 3%     0 - 1 +7.2 +12.4 -3.8
  Nov 08, 2024 143   @ College of Charleston L 71-86 33%     0 - 2 -11.4 -9.4 +0.1
  Nov 12, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 85-69 97%     1 - 2 -6.3 +0.3 -6.7
  Nov 15, 2024 348   West Georgia W 74-55 90%     2 - 2 +3.7 -1.0 +6.1
  Nov 21, 2024 284   Portland W 74-68 72%     3 - 2 -0.9 -5.6 +4.6
  Nov 22, 2024 122   Middle Tennessee L 88-95 38%     3 - 3 -4.8 +15.9 -20.6
  Nov 24, 2024 220   Wright St. W 73-72 59%     4 - 3 -2.2 -2.7 +0.5
  Dec 03, 2024 349   Stetson W 74-72 91%     5 - 3 -13.4 -9.4 -4.1
  Dec 07, 2024 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 72-74 26%     5 - 4 +3.9 +3.2 +0.7
  Dec 14, 2024 45   @ Utah St. L 67-88 9%     5 - 5 -7.1 -3.6 -3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman L 69-77 80%     5 - 6 -17.9 -3.9 -14.2
  Dec 21, 2024 339   Texas A&M - Commerce W 88-62 89%     6 - 6 +12.0 +8.0 +3.4
  Dec 31, 2024 150   East Carolina W 75-69 54%     7 - 6 1 - 0 +4.1 -2.3 +6.2
  Jan 06, 2025 115   @ Wichita St. W 91-72 27%     8 - 6 2 - 0 +24.4 +20.3 +3.8
  Jan 11, 2025 144   @ Tulane L 70-73 33%     8 - 7 2 - 1 +0.6 +7.2 -7.0
  Jan 15, 2025 104   UAB L 83-92 40%     8 - 8 2 - 2 -7.4 +8.8 -16.5
  Jan 18, 2025 246   Tulsa W 63-56 73%     9 - 8 3 - 2 -0.3 -10.5 +10.4
  Jan 22, 2025 235   @ Charlotte L 61-69 52%     9 - 9 3 - 3 -9.5 -10.5 +0.7
  Jan 25, 2025 150   @ East Carolina L 55-64 34%     9 - 10 3 - 4 -5.8 -10.7 +3.9
  Jan 28, 2025 178   Rice W 69-64 60%     10 - 10 4 - 4 +1.5 -6.5 +8.1
  Feb 02, 2025 105   @ Florida Atlantic L 72-94 24%     10 - 11 4 - 5 -15.4 -1.8 -13.0
  Feb 06, 2025 155   Temple W 100-91 2OT 54%     11 - 11 5 - 5 +7.0 +5.9 -0.6
  Feb 09, 2025 115   Wichita St. L 70-75 45%     11 - 12 5 - 6 -4.7 -1.7 -3.0
  Feb 13, 2025 47   Memphis L 65-80 19%     11 - 13 5 - 7 -6.4 -9.2 +4.3
  Feb 16, 2025 104   @ UAB L 78-85 23%     11 - 14 5 - 8 -0.3 +3.0 -3.3
  Feb 19, 2025 208   @ Texas San Antonio W 78-73 46%     12 - 14 6 - 8 +5.0 -1.5 +6.2
  Feb 23, 2025 71   North Texas L 60-66 28%    
  Feb 26, 2025 155   @ Temple L 75-79 34%    
  Mar 02, 2025 105   Florida Atlantic L 76-78 42%    
  Mar 07, 2025 47   @ Memphis L 68-83 8%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 0.3 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 3.2 0.1 5.2 6th
7th 1.1 9.3 2.2 0.0 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 14.1 11.7 0.4 26.2 8th
9th 14.9 24.6 2.0 41.5 9th
10th 10.1 1.6 11.7 10th
11th 1.6 1.6 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 26.6 41.4 24.9 6.6 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.5% 4.2% 4.2% 13.0 0.0 0.5
9-9 6.6% 1.5% 1.5% 14.5 0.1 0.1 6.5
8-10 24.9% 0.8% 0.8% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 24.7
7-11 41.4% 0.6% 0.6% 15.7 0.1 0.2 41.1
6-12 26.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 16.8%