South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#79
Expected Predictive Rating+6.4#92
Pace77.8#26
Improvement+0.0#188

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#85
First Shot-1.2#211
After Offensive Rebound+5.0#6
Layup/Dunks+2.6#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#361
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#232
Freethrows+2.4#62
Improvement-2.3#340

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#75
First Shot+3.9#62
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#220
Layups/Dunks+2.1#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#135
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#119
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement+2.3#25
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.6% 22.5% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 1.7% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.8
.500 or above 93.1% 94.6% 83.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.0% 91.7% 86.1%
Conference Champion 25.0% 26.2% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round21.1% 22.0% 15.2%
Second Round5.3% 5.7% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 4
Quad 24 - 54 - 9
Quad 38 - 312 - 11
Quad 48 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 343 Florida A&M W 102-67 97%     1 - 0 +20.6 +10.0 +6.2
  Sat, Nov 8 59 George Washington L 95-99 42%     1 - 1 +5.5 +5.8 +0.4
  Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100-50 99%     2 - 1 +29.6 +21.2 +9.4
  Sun, Nov 16 152 @Kennesaw St. W 108-89 66%     3 - 1 +22.1 +22.2 -2.4
  Wed, Nov 19 44 @Oklahoma St. L 95-103 26%     3 - 2 +6.1 +14.0 -6.7
  Wed, Nov 26 42 Virginia Commonwealth L 66-78 34%     3 - 3 -0.4 -1.5 +1.5
  Thu, Nov 27 128 Western Kentucky W 97-91 OT 69%     4 - 3 +8.1 +2.7 +4.0
  Fri, Nov 28 72 Colorado St. L 68-83 47%     4 - 4 -7.1 -4.6 -2.8
  Thu, Dec 4 51 Utah St. W 74-61 49%     5 - 4 +20.5 +3.7 +16.7
  Wed, Dec 10 175 College of Charleston W 84-72 86%    
  Wed, Dec 17 10 @Alabama L 83-97 9%    
  Sun, Dec 21 259 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 86-70 93%    
  Tue, Jan 6 110 UAB W 84-77 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 144 @North Texas W 73-70 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 89 @Tulsa L 78-80 43%    
  Wed, Jan 14 266 East Carolina W 86-70 93%    
  Sun, Jan 18 91 Wichita St. W 78-74 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 110 @UAB W 81-80 52%    
  Sun, Jan 25 122 Florida Atlantic W 83-75 76%    
  Wed, Jan 28 187 @Tulane W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Jan 31 160 @Temple W 83-78 67%    
  Wed, Feb 4 277 Texas San Antonio W 86-70 93%    
  Sun, Feb 8 89 Tulsa W 81-77 65%    
  Wed, Feb 11 91 @Wichita St. L 75-77 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 122 @Florida Atlantic W 80-78 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 69 Memphis W 80-78 57%    
  Wed, Feb 25 213 @Rice W 79-71 75%    
  Sun, Mar 1 187 Tulane W 85-73 85%    
  Thu, Mar 5 69 @Memphis L 77-81 36%    
  Sun, Mar 8 181 Charlotte W 80-68 85%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.9 7.3 5.0 1.9 0.4 25.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.0 7.9 5.2 1.3 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.4 6.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 5.9 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.6 0.7 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.5 7.6 10.7 13.8 15.0 15.1 12.7 8.6 5.1 1.9 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
16-2 97.5% 5.0    4.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 84.7% 7.3    5.2 2.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.1% 6.9    3.1 2.9 0.8 0.1
13-5 19.4% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 15.8 6.6 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 82.5% 55.8% 26.7% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 60.4%
17-1 1.9% 58.2% 42.1% 16.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.8 27.8%
16-2 5.1% 47.0% 40.5% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.7 10.8%
15-3 8.6% 39.0% 35.8% 3.1% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2 0.9 0.0 5.3 4.9%
14-4 12.7% 31.2% 30.1% 1.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.1 1.7 0.1 8.7 1.6%
13-5 15.1% 25.6% 25.4% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 1.5 2.1 0.2 11.2 0.2%
12-6 15.0% 18.3% 18.2% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.3 12.3 0.1%
11-7 13.8% 13.9% 13.9% 12.0 0.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 11.8
10-8 10.7% 9.3% 9.3% 12.2 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.7
9-9 7.6% 6.8% 6.8% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 7.1
8-10 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.4
7-11 2.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
6-12 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 21.6% 20.4% 1.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 8.8 9.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 78.4 1.5%