South Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.7 #74
Expected Predictive Rating +6.4 #84
Pace 78.1 #18
Improvement +0.1 #179

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #79 C A+ B- A- A+
Defense #80 B- B B+ D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #34 1.09 #269 +2.2 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #360 0.61 #341 -5.4 #363
Three Pointers 47% #57 0.99 #217 +2.7 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #198 -0.6 #195
Freethrows 21.1 #25 74% #138 15.6 #31
Second Chance 38.1% #19 1.17 #42 0.45 #18
Turnovers 15.2% #99
Total Offense +4.2 #79

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #197 1.03 #37 +2.6 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #87 0.73 #132 -0.8 #248
Three Pointers 38% #262 1.04 #213 +1.0 #141
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #93 +2.8 #93
Freethrows 20.0 #305 69% #60 13.9 #266
Second Chance 29.7% #139 0.92 #43 0.27 #75
Turnovers 19.1% #53
Total Defense +3.5 #80

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.3% #5 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #258 -4.6% #89
Possession Length 15.3 #27 17.2 #155
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #55 0.15 #94
Improvement -0.9 #231 +1.1 #111

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.1% 25.0% 18.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.4 11.4 11.6
.500 or above 99.1% 99.7% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.3% 95.1%
Conference Champion 29.2% 37.2% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round22.9% 24.7% 18.9%
Second Round4.9% 5.5% 3.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.0% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Atlantic (Home) - 69.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 25 - 56 - 7
Quad 37 - 413 - 11
Quad 48 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 313 Florida A&M W 102 - 67 96% +15  1 - 0 +23 +12 C+ A+ D +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 8 72 George Washington L 95 - 99 49% -1  1 - 1 +4 +6 F A+ A- -2 D A- A+
 Wed, Nov 12 364 Coppin St. W 100 - 50 99% +28  2 - 1 +27 +19 C A+ B +10 A+ D A-
 Sun, Nov 16 150 @Kennesaw St. W 108 - 89 65% +9  3 - 1 +23 +23 B A+ A+ -3 B+ F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 61 @Oklahoma St. L 95 - 103 34% -2  3 - 2 +4 +13 A+ B- C- -8 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 55 Virginia Commonwealth L 66 - 78 40% -3  3 - 3 -2 -5 F C A+ +4 A+ B+ B-
 Thu, Nov 27 162 Western Kentucky W 97 - 91 OT 78% -5  4 - 3 +6 +2 D- B B- +2 D C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 96 Colorado St. L 68 - 83 59% -8  4 - 4 -10 -5 F C+ B+ -5 F A A+
 Thu, Dec 4 39 Utah St. W 74 - 61 42% +15  5 - 4 +23 +3 B C D- +19 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 164 College of Charleston W 81 - 75 85% +2  6 - 4 +3 +7 C- A+ C -5 A- D+ B+
 Wed, Dec 17 17 @Alabama L 93 - 104 11% -8  6 - 5 +10 +16 C A+ F -5 B D+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 94 - 69 93% +15  7 - 5 +16 +11 B- A+ B+ +4 A D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 117 UAB L 106 - 109 2OT 77% +3  7 - 6 0 - 1 -3 +4 C A B+ -6 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 127 @North Texas W 74 - 70 60% +0  8 - 6 1 - 1 +9 +11 C+ A+ F -1 D C+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 70 @Tulsa W 93 - 78 37% +8  9 - 6 2 - 1 +26 +18 A+ A+ B- +8 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 267 East Carolina W 82 - 71 93% +11  10 - 6 3 - 1 +2 +3 D+ F A+ -1 C+ C+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 103 Wichita St. L 85 - 86 OT 72% -1  10 - 7 3 - 2 +1 +5 C C+ B- -4 D+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 117 @UAB W 82 - 69 57% +8  11 - 7 4 - 2 +19 +6 C A+ F +12 A+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 25 95 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 69%
 Wed, Jan 28 172 @Tulane W 81 - 75 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 140 @Temple W 80 - 77 63%
 Wed, Feb 4 345 Texas San Antonio W 92 - 69 98%
 Sun, Feb 8 70 Tulsa W 85 - 82 60%
 Wed, Feb 11 103 @Wichita St. W 77 - 76 51%
 Sun, Feb 15 95 @Florida Atlantic L 82 - 83 47%
 Thu, Feb 19 92 Memphis W 80 - 75 67%
 Wed, Feb 25 239 @Rice W 82 - 73 80%
 Sun, Mar 1 172 Tulane W 84 - 72 85%
 Thu, Mar 5 92 @Memphis L 77 - 78 46%
 Sun, Mar 8 173 Charlotte W 83 - 71 86%
Totals 19 - 11 12 - 6 +8 +4 C A+ B- +4 B- B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 7.3 12.2 7.4 1.6 29.2 1st
2nd 0.3 6.4 10.9 3.1 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 10.0 3.1 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 7.2 4.1 0.2 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.2 4.7 0.5 8.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.7 0.9 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 1.5 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.2 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 4.6 9.6 16.2 21.7 21.4 15.4 7.5 1.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.6    1.6
15-3 98.3% 7.4    6.6 0.8 0.0
14-4 79.1% 12.2    6.4 4.9 0.9 0.0
13-5 33.9% 7.3    1.2 3.1 2.3 0.6 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 29.2% 29.2 15.8 8.8 3.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.6% 51.7% 41.6% 10.0% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 17.2%
15-3 7.5% 37.9% 36.8% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 0.3 4.7 1.8%
14-4 15.4% 32.5% 32.0% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.1 3.6 1.3 0.0 10.4 0.6%
13-5 21.4% 26.3% 26.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 3.0 2.6 0.1 15.8 0.2%
12-6 21.7% 21.1% 21.1% 11.6 0.0 1.7 2.8 0.1 17.1
11-7 16.2% 15.8% 15.8% 11.8 0.5 1.9 0.1 13.6
10-8 9.6% 11.9% 11.9% 12.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 8.5
9-9 4.6% 8.3% 8.3% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.2
8-10 1.5% 7.9% 7.9% 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.4
7-11 0.4% 4.9% 4.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.1% 22.8% 0.4% 11.4 76.9 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 9.6 2.2 2.9 11.7 28.5 26.3 28.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 29.2% 10.8 6.3 22.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 13.2% 11.0 13.2