North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#144
Expected Predictive Rating+2.8#130
Pace62.0#353
Improvement-0.6#230

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#218
First Shot-2.8#258
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#123
Layup/Dunks+2.2#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#313
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#323
Freethrows+2.7#52
Improvement+1.3#74

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#92
First Shot+1.7#109
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#116
Layups/Dunks+2.4#92
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#67
Freethrows-4.5#355
Improvement-2.0#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 5.1% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.4 12.9
.500 or above 67.9% 83.3% 62.4%
.500 or above in Conference 55.4% 64.0% 52.3%
Conference Champion 3.9% 5.6% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.8% 4.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 5.0% 3.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: TCU (Home) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 35 - 66 - 13
Quad 410 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 302 Northwestern St. W 80-53 86%     1 - 0 +16.2 +14.9 +6.2
  Sun, Nov 9 260 Loyola Chicago W 64-62 73%     2 - 0 -3.4 -8.7 +5.4
  Wed, Nov 12 165 @Oregon St. L 64-66 45%     2 - 1 +0.4 -1.1 +1.3
  Fri, Nov 14 41 @St. Mary's L 49-80 10%     2 - 2 -16.1 -13.0 -4.5
  Thu, Nov 20 279 Central Arkansas W 74-56 83%     3 - 2 +8.8 -0.3 +9.5
  Tue, Nov 25 234 Eastern Washington W 79-71 OT 78%     4 - 2 +0.8 -2.9 +3.4
  Sun, Nov 30 322 Prairie View W 72-69 89%     5 - 2 -9.1 -5.9 -3.3
  Tue, Dec 2 263 Houston Christian W 77-75 82%     6 - 2 -6.5 +8.0 -14.2
  Sun, Dec 7 47 TCU L 63-70 26%    
  Sun, Dec 14 166 @South Alabama L 64-65 46%    
  Wed, Dec 17 75 Santa Clara L 66-73 27%    
  Wed, Dec 31 69 @Memphis L 63-73 17%    
  Sun, Jan 4 89 Tulsa L 67-69 42%    
  Wed, Jan 7 79 South Florida L 70-73 39%    
  Sun, Jan 11 91 @Wichita St. L 62-70 24%    
  Sun, Jan 18 187 @Tulane L 68-69 49%    
  Wed, Jan 21 277 Texas San Antonio W 72-62 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 266 East Carolina W 73-63 81%    
  Wed, Jan 28 89 @Tulsa L 64-72 24%    
  Sat, Jan 31 110 UAB W 70-69 51%    
  Wed, Feb 4 213 @Rice W 66-65 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 277 @Texas San Antonio W 69-65 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 69 Memphis L 66-70 35%    
  Sun, Feb 15 160 @Temple L 69-71 45%    
  Wed, Feb 18 187 Tulane W 72-66 69%    
  Sun, Feb 22 122 Florida Atlantic W 69-68 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 181 @Charlotte L 64-65 48%    
  Sun, Mar 1 110 @UAB L 66-72 31%    
  Wed, Mar 4 213 Rice W 69-62 74%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.8 1.9 0.2 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.1 2.8 0.3 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.3 4.1 0.5 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.4 5.1 1.1 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.5 1.7 0.1 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.6 2.1 0.2 9.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.0 6.1 8.6 11.4 13.4 14.5 12.8 11.0 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 95.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
15-3 83.1% 0.9    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 49.6% 1.4    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.3% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 30.6% 27.8% 2.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.8%
16-2 0.4% 22.7% 21.8% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1%
15-3 1.1% 18.5% 18.5% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
14-4 2.8% 12.4% 12.4% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
13-5 5.0% 11.1% 11.1% 12.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.4
12-6 7.7% 8.4% 8.4% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.1
11-7 11.0% 4.7% 4.7% 12.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.5
10-8 12.8% 3.9% 3.9% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.3
9-9 14.5% 2.5% 2.5% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 14.1
8-10 13.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.3
7-11 11.4% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.3
6-12 8.6% 0.3% 0.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.6
5-13 6.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
3-15 1.5% 1.5
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 96.5 0.0%