Tulane
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -1.7 184
Results Rating +2.0 127
Consistency 0.17 280
Pace 67.2 218
Improvement +1.2 142

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 201 C- D B- A C+
Defense C 182 C C- C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 238 C 58% 168 -1.1 223
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 256 D+ 35% 281 -1.7 268
Three Pointers 46% 83 D+ 31% 286 +0.8 156
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 159 D+ -2.2 259
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 237
Second Chance F+ 22.1% 350 B 1.13 48 D 0.25 313
Opponents' Steals B- 8.3% 74
Other Turnovers C+ 7.0% 142
Turnovers B- 15.2% 92
Freethrows A- 0.37 11 B 76% 50 A 0.28 9
Total Offense C- -1.4 201

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 45% 243 C+ 9.7% 112
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 37% 34 C+ 4.4% 147
Three Pointers B- 88% 96 B- 0.5% 96
Total C+ 59% 111 B- 4.6% 65


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 216 C+ 56% 112 -1.4 124
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 217 C 38% 161 -0.2 173
Three Pointers 43% 107 D+ 35% 252 +2.1 287
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 189 C +0.0 181
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 182
Second Chance D 33.3% 302 B- 0.98 108 C- 0.33 233
Turnovers from Steals B 11.4% 49
Other Turnovers D 6.1% 322
Turnovers C+ 17.5% 129
Freethrows C- 0.32 221 B- 71% 93 C 0.22 206
Total Defense C -0.3 182

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 296 B 15.1% 47
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 35% 324 B+ 8.6% 33
Three Pointers D+ 87% 282 C 1.0% 127
Total D 62% 323 B+ 7.8% 37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.9 119 18.2 299
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 299 0.17 163
Consistency 0.12 146 0.12 128
Improvement -3.2 324 +4.5 17

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 215 186 162
Results Rating Rank 182 139 119
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 9 6 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 73% 100% 62%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 52 - 7
Quad 36 - 77 - 14
Quad 410 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 191 Samford W 85 - 72 63% +6  76% 1 - 0 B- +8 A +12 A+ F C+ C- -3 C F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 233 Texas St. W 79 - 71 70% -6  13% 2 - 0 C +1 B +6 C+ F B- D+ -4 C F D
 Tue, Nov 11 298 @Louisiana W 66 - 62 64% +3  73% 3 - 0 C -1 D -4 F C B B- +3 B F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 196 New Orleans L 63 - 85 63% -11  0% 3 - 1 F -27 F -12 F F A+ F -17 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 42 Utah St. L 75 - 96 9% -6  30% 3 - 2 D+ -8 B- +5 A- D B F -14 F C- C
 Sun, Nov 23 137 Boston College W 93 - 90 OT 39% +1  54% 4 - 2 C+ +4 A +12 B- A+ A+ D- -8 C D+ D
 Fri, Nov 28 249 Nicholls St. W 82 - 72 72% +7  89% 5 - 2 C+ +2 B- +4 B F A- C- -2 F A- C-
 Tue, Dec 2 308 Grambling St. W 65 - 63 83% +0  48% 6 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 F D A+ D -6 C- F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 71 Akron L 71 - 88 25% -8  11% 6 - 3 D- -12 D -5 F D- A+ D -6 D F+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 133 UC San Diego L 67 - 93 36% -16  8% 6 - 4 F -24 F -12 F+ F D- F+ -9 D- D+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 221 Louisiana Tech W 61 - 53 68% +6  93% 7 - 4 C +1 C- -2 F B- A+ B +5 A+ B B+
 Sat, Dec 20 153 Portland St. W 63 - 61 54% +3  79% 8 - 4 C -1 D -5 F D F B +4 A- D C+
 Wed, Dec 31 234 @East Carolina W 79 - 70 47% +1  53% 9 - 4 1 - 0 B- +8 B+ +9 B- A- D+ C -1 C B F
 Sun, Jan 4 125 Florida Atlantic W 69 - 66 45% -1  28% 10 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 D -5 D B- C+ A- +8 A- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 335 @Texas San Antonio W 85 - 52 75% +19  92% 11 - 4 3 - 0 A+ +24 B +7 B- C- C+ A+ +18 A B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 116 UAB L 69 - 82 43% -4  13% 11 - 5 3 - 1 D- -13 D -5 F+ B+ B D- -8 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 18 136 North Texas L 63 - 71 49% -6  6% 11 - 6 3 - 2 D -10 D- -6 F D- A+ D+ -3 D B A
 Wed, Jan 21 125 @Florida Atlantic L 74 - 79 24% -6  5% 11 - 7 3 - 3 C +1 C +1 D C+ D C -0 F+ B+ D+
 Fri, Jan 23 170 @Charlotte L 70 - 73 35% -5  19% 11 - 8 3 - 4 C -1 D -5 C- F B- B +4 D- D- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 54 South Florida L 83 - 97 19% -11  6% 11 - 9 3 - 5 D+ -7 B- +5 A+ F A F -11 B- F D
 Sun, Feb 1 120 @Memphis W 78 - 76 23% +5  88% 12 - 9 4 - 5 B- +8 A- +9 A D- B- C- -2 A B- D-
 Sun, Feb 8 92 Wichita St. L 61 - 75 32% -6  12% 12 - 10 4 - 6 D -11 F -14 F+ F D- B +4 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 11 165 Temple W 77 - 66 57% +6  69% 13 - 10 5 - 6 B- +7 C +1 C+ A F+ A- +7 A+ B+ D+
 Sun, Feb 15 116 @UAB W 55 - 54 23% +5  78% 14 - 10 6 - 6 B- +7 F+ -10 D- F C+ A+ +17 A A+ C+
 Wed, Feb 18 136 @North Texas L 63 - 69 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 136 @North Texas W 77 - 71 28% -3  20% 15 - 10 7 - 6 B +10 A +13 B- B A+ C- -2 B+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 22 218 Rice W 81 - 75 68% +5  72% 16 - 10 8 - 6 C -0 C+ +3 B+ B- C C- -3 D A+ D+
 Wed, Feb 25 64 Tulsa L 56 - 90 23% -17  3% 16 - 11 8 - 7 F -28 F -17 F D F+ F -13 D F+ D+
 Sun, Mar 1 54 @South Florida L 62 - 90 9% -10  7% 16 - 12 8 - 8 D- -15 F+ -9 D- D- F D+ -4 C- B- D-
 Thu, Mar 5 165 @Temple L 70 - 74 34%
 Sun, Mar 8 120 Memphis L 72 - 74 44%
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 10 -2 C- -1 D D+ C+ C +0 D+ B A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C D+ D+ D+ 37% 31% 46% C+ C- F+ B D B- A- B A C C+ C D+ C 38% 19% 43% C C D B- C- C+ C- B- C
1.07 58% 35% 31% -2 0 0.98 22% 1.1 .25 15% .37 76% .28 1.09 56% 38% 35% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .33 18% .32 71% .26
Nov
3		 Samford A A- A+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% C- A+ F D- F C+ D- A+ C C- B A- F C- 25% 27% 48% A C F D+ F B+ B A+ A-
1.31 67% 60% 52% +20 -2 1.39 9% 1.0 .09 12% .23 92% .21 1.11 54% 29% 40% +1 -2 1.00 37% 1.1 .41 17% .31 59% .18
Nov
8		 Texas St. B C+ F A+ C+ 41% 14% 45% C+ C+ F F F B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A B+ F C+ 46% 25% 29% D- C C F F D B F C+
1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54 1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20
Nov
11		 Louisiana D A+ F F F 54% 17% 29% B- F F A+ C B A+ B A+ B- F B- A B- 13% 31% 56% B- B D F F F+ F A+ D
1.03 73% 0% 17% -6 +2 0.93 19% 1.8 .35 16% .50 78% .39 0.97 67% 36% 28% -5 -3 0.87 31% 1.1 .33 13% .38 52% .20
Nov
14		 New Orleans F A A F F 36% 13% 51% C+ F F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ F A+ F F F 29% 17% 55% C- F D+ F F B F B F
0.96 69% 50% 9% -14 +1 0.76 21% 0.8 .15 8% .56 71% .40 1.29 42% 57% 57% +17 0 1.36 38% 1.3 .50 21% .54 71% .39
Nov
21		 Utah St. B- F F A+ A 20% 22% 57% D A- F A+ D B B- C+ B- F F F F F 34% 24% 42% A+ F C D+ C- C C+ B+ B-
1.09 30% 27% 50% +6 -2 1.10 16% 1.6 .25 19% .34 74% .25 1.40 76% 67% 52% +25 -1 1.50 36% 1.2 .44 15% .31 67% .20
Nov
23		 Boston College A A D- F C+ 48% 24% 28% B- B- D- A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ D- A D+ D C- 33% 24% 43% C C B F D+ D F F F
1.18 69% 31% 20% -2 0 0.98 21% 2.1 .45 10% .51 72% .37 1.15 47% 43% 36% -1 -1 0.98 27% 1.3 .34 13% .52 78% .41
Nov
28		 Nicholls St. B- B+ B- B+ B 42% 15% 44% C+ B F F F A- A F B C- A- F F F 40% 19% 42% C F B- A+ A- C- F A+ C-
1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30 1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19
Dec
2		 Grambling St. D+ D- F C- F 38% 22% 40% D F C- F+ D A+ B+ B- B+ D F F+ A+ D+ 26% 17% 57% C+ C- D- F F B+ F B- F
1.05 53% 20% 33% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.9 .29 11% .38 76% .29 1.02 73% 43% 25% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.3 .43 24% .43 70% .30
Dec
6		 Akron D C A+ F F 25% 19% 56% D F F C+ D- A+ A C A- D B F F D 32% 12% 56% C D F C+ F+ A- D C D
1.00 57% 55% 22% -7 -1 0.86 22% 1.0 .22 11% .35 73% .25 1.24 56% 50% 43% +8 +1 1.20 42% 1.2 .52 20% .30 76% .23
Dec
13		 UC San Diego F C+ D+ F F+ 42% 25% 33% C- F+ F+ F+ F D- A D+ A- F+ D+ A+ F D 53% 5% 42% F D- F A+ D+ C- B- C C+
0.86 58% 36% 16% -10 0 0.82 20% 0.9 .17 19% .35 68% .24 1.19 63% 0% 40% +4 +3 1.17 40% 0.8 .30 15% .24 69% .17
Dec
17		 Louisiana Tech C- C A+ F F 28% 13% 59% C F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ B A D A+ A+ 51% 16% 33% F A+ F A+ B B+ F F F
1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46 0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31
Dec
20		 Portland St. D F A+ F F 50% 18% 32% B F A- F D F A+ A+ A+ B A+ F A+ A 40% 21% 38% B- A- D+ D- D C+ C- A- C+
0.96 45% 50% 14% -14 +1 0.77 36% 0.6 .22 23% .59 83% .50 0.93 42% 60% 22% -9 0 0.85 32% 1.1 .35 20% .31 63% .19
Dec
31		 East Carolina B+ D- D A+ B 28% 28% 44% D- B- A- B- A- D+ A+ F A+ C D A+ C- C 43% 24% 33% D+ C D+ A+ B F C+ A B
1.20 50% 33% 47% +5 -2 1.09 38% 1.2 .47 18% .50 67% .33 1.06 61% 15% 33% -5 0 0.93 35% 0.8 .28 12% .33 63% .21
Jan
4		 Florida Atlantic D D+ F C+ D- 39% 19% 43% C- D D A+ B- C+ D A C- A- A- F A+ A- 28% 26% 46% A A- F B- D- A+ C A+ B
0.99 52% 10% 35% -7 0 0.89 22% 1.4 .30 16% .26 80% .20 0.95 50% 62% 22% -5 -1 0.90 41% 1.0 .41 26% .29 60% .17
Jan
10		 Texas San Antonio B D F A B- 22% 12% 66% C- B- F A+ C- C+ F A+ F A+ C A+ B+ A 33% 27% 40% B+ A B+ A- B+ A+ F A+ D+
1.24 54% 29% 41% +5 0 1.12 28% 1.4 .39 15% .12 86% .10 0.76 53% 8% 28% -13 -1 0.73 26% 0.8 .21 23% .36 58% .21
Jan
14		 UAB D D+ B+ F F 40% 13% 47% B+ F+ D A+ B+ B A C A- D- B- A F C- 55% 28% 17% C- C- F F F B C F F
0.99 55% 43% 23% -9 +1 0.87 21% 1.5 .32 14% .32 74% .23 1.17 55% 27% 44% -2 0 0.98 44% 1.2 .53 14% .30 94% .28
Jan
18		 North Texas D- F F C+ F 25% 23% 52% D+ F F B+ D- A+ A+ A- A+ D+ A- C F D+ 47% 13% 40% D D F A+ B A F F F
0.94 36% 10% 35% -11 -1 0.77 21% 1.1 .24 16% .59 76% .44 1.06 48% 33% 39% -3 +2 1.00 44% 0.6 .28 22% .52 81% .42
Jan
21		 Florida Atlantic C D- D B- D+ 45% 26% 30% D D D- A+ C+ D A+ A+ A+ C B- F F F+ 51% 15% 34% F F+ A+ F B+ D+ F A+ F
1.04 48% 33% 36% -5 0 0.91 19% 1.5 .29 18% .46 85% .39 1.11 54% 57% 44% +6 +2 1.17 20% 1.3 .27 15% .48 59% .28
Jan
23		 Charlotte D B A+ F C- 36% 23% 40% C- C- F A+ F B- A A+ A+ B F A+ C D 45% 9% 45% D- D- D D+ D- A+ D+ C C-
1.03 65% 55% 21% -2 -1 0.98 7% 2.0 .14 13% .41 83% .34 1.07 80% 0% 35% +7 +2 1.20 37% 1.0 .37 25% .35 72% .26
Jan
28		 South Florida B- A+ C A A+ 29% 14% 57% B- A+ F+ F F A B+ D+ B F D+ B- A C+ 44% 12% 44% B- B- D- F F D F B- F
1.10 69% 38% 41% +9 0 1.20 21% 0.1 .03 15% .37 67% .25 1.28 61% 33% 26% -5 +2 0.96 44% 1.6 .69 13% .53 71% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Memphis A- C A+ A A 41% 9% 50% A A F A+ D- B- A+ B A+ C- C+ D A+ A 35% 26% 39% B- A F A+ B- D- F F F
1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36 1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55
Feb
8		 Wichita St. F B+ F F F 45% 20% 35% A F+ F F F D- A+ A+ A+ B D+ F B D 42% 16% 42% D- D- B A+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+
0.84 64% 10% 18% -12 0 0.80 16% 0.7 .11 19% .41 83% .34 1.03 61% 56% 30% +2 +1 1.07 36% 0.6 .21 21% .33 53% .17
Feb
11		 Temple C B- A+ F C 49% 13% 38% A- C+ C- A+ A F+ A+ D- A+ A- A C+ A+ A+ 40% 16% 44% D- A+ C A+ B+ D+ F C+ F
1.13 63% 60% 27% +1 +2 1.08 27% 1.6 .43 19% .73 68% .49 0.97 45% 38% 23% -13 +1 0.78 29% 0.8 .21 12% .45 74% .33
Feb
15		 UAB F+ F F+ C F+ 39% 14% 47% B D- D- F F C+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 19% 35% D A D- A+ A+ C+ C A+ B
0.88 45% 29% 33% -7 +1 0.90 19% 0.6 .11 16% .09 100% .09 0.86 50% 22% 24% -12 +1 0.79 37% 0.4 .15 13% .31 59% .18
Feb
19		 North Texas A A+ F B- B- 38% 21% 42% C+ B- C A B A+ A- C+ A- C- A+ F A+ B+ 45% 33% 21% A+ B+ F+ F F B- F D+ F
1.17 72% 10% 35% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.2 .38 15% .43 71% .31 1.08 42% 43% 22% -9 -1 0.81 41% 1.3 .54 18% .54 72% .39
Feb
22		 Rice C+ F A+ A+ B- 36% 2% 62% A+ B+ D- A+ B- C A+ C A+ C- C A+ F D 31% 24% 45% D- D A+ D+ A+ D+ D- F F
1.18 47% 100% 42% +5 +2 1.17 25% 1.4 .36 16% .54 74% .40 1.09 56% 25% 43% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 16% .35 80% .28
Feb
25		 Tulsa F F C+ F F 38% 17% 46% C+ F D+ D- D F+ B F C F C+ C- F D 42% 9% 49% C D F B- F+ D+ A- C A-
0.84 44% 38% 27% -10 0 0.83 22% 1.0 .22 20% .30 63% .19 1.36 57% 40% 44% +7 +2 1.20 40% 1.2 .49 14% .26 80% .21
Mar
1		 South Florida F+ B+ F F+ D- 18% 18% 64% C- D- F C+ D- F A+ D+ A+ D+ D+ B- B+ C- 51% 5% 44% D+ C- C+ B B- D- D+ F F+
0.85 63% 25% 29% -7 -1 0.86 20% 1.0 .20 25% .49 67% .33 1.24 61% 33% 29% -2 +3 1.04 38% 1.1 .40 12% .39 84% .33



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 3.6 4.8 8.3 4th
5th 6.6 20.2 26.8 5th
6th 25.6 25.6 6th
7th 10.9 10.9 7th
8th 15.6 0.8 16.4 8th
9th 10.8 10.8 9th
10th 1.2 1.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 27.5 43.9 23.7 4.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.8
10-8 23.7% 0.9% 0.9% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.5
9-9 43.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 43.7
8-10 27.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 14.0 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6%
Lose Out 19.2%