Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#89
Expected Predictive Rating+11.4#54
Pace65.7#278
Improvement+0.7#143

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#58
First Shot+5.4#45
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#162
Layup/Dunks-1.1#220
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#16
Freethrows+3.3#34
Improvement+0.5#132

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#160
First Shot-0.7#193
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#121
Layups/Dunks+0.3#158
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#299
Freethrows+1.8#72
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.9% 17.0% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 12.0
.500 or above 98.1% 98.2% 91.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 88.1% 80.0%
Conference Champion 21.8% 22.0% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.4% 1.2%
First Four0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
First Round16.5% 16.6% 10.9%
Second Round3.9% 3.9% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 98.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 39 - 312 - 8
Quad 410 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 116 Rhode Island W 82-65 60%     1 - 0 +20.3 +17.2 +4.3
  Wed, Nov 12 301 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 84%     2 - 0 -3.7 +7.9 -11.7
  Mon, Nov 17 82 @Kansas St. L 83-84 36%     2 - 1 +8.7 +8.1 +0.7
  Fri, Nov 21 180 Austin Peay W 84-75 84%     3 - 1 +4.5 +13.3 -8.6
  Tue, Nov 25 182 San Jose St. W 81-51 77%     4 - 1 +28.4 +19.0 +13.6
  Wed, Nov 26 98 Northern Iowa W 63-60 53%     5 - 1 +8.2 +2.9 +5.7
  Sat, Dec 6 255 Missouri St. W 98-74 90%     6 - 1 +15.8 +25.7 -8.9
  Wed, Dec 10 353 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 88-66 98%    
  Sat, Dec 13 127 New Mexico St. W 73-69 64%    
  Fri, Dec 19 128 @Western Kentucky W 79-78 53%    
  Mon, Dec 22 294 Denver W 86-70 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 213 Rice W 78-66 87%    
  Sun, Jan 4 144 @North Texas W 69-67 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 79 South Florida W 80-78 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 181 @Charlotte W 73-68 66%    
  Sun, Jan 18 110 @UAB L 76-77 47%    
  Wed, Jan 21 69 Memphis W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Jan 25 213 @Rice W 75-69 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 144 North Texas W 72-64 76%    
  Sun, Feb 1 91 Wichita St. W 74-71 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 122 @Florida Atlantic W 76-75 51%    
  Sun, Feb 8 79 @South Florida L 77-81 35%    
  Wed, Feb 11 110 UAB W 79-74 69%    
  Sat, Feb 14 91 @Wichita St. L 71-74 40%    
  Wed, Feb 18 181 Charlotte W 76-65 83%    
  Sun, Feb 22 277 Texas San Antonio W 82-67 91%    
  Wed, Feb 25 187 @Tulane W 78-73 67%    
  Thu, Mar 5 266 @East Carolina W 79-70 78%    
  Sun, Mar 8 160 Temple W 82-73 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.9 6.5 4.3 1.7 0.4 21.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.1 5.2 1.6 0.2 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.4 6.7 3.8 0.7 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 5.9 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 4.6 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 2.9 0.8 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.0 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.3 5.5 8.5 11.0 13.7 14.5 13.8 11.7 8.2 4.4 1.7 0.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.7    1.7 0.0
16-2 95.9% 4.3    3.8 0.5 0.0
15-3 79.8% 6.5    4.5 1.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.3% 5.9    2.6 2.5 0.7 0.0
13-5 18.7% 2.6    0.5 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 13.5 6.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 78.2% 47.6% 30.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 58.5%
17-1 1.7% 58.1% 43.5% 14.6% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 25.9%
16-2 4.4% 43.2% 35.6% 7.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 2.5 11.8%
15-3 8.2% 31.7% 29.5% 2.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.0 5.6 3.1%
14-4 11.7% 26.1% 25.5% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 1.5 1.5 0.1 8.7 0.9%
13-5 13.8% 20.7% 20.5% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 0.9 1.8 0.2 0.0 11.0 0.2%
12-6 14.5% 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 12.0 0.4 1.6 0.3 12.2 0.1%
11-7 13.7% 10.6% 10.6% 12.2 0.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.3
10-8 11.0% 7.4% 7.4% 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.2
9-9 8.5% 4.5% 4.5% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.2
8-10 5.5% 3.0% 3.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.4
7-11 3.3% 2.7% 2.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
6-12 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 16.9% 15.9% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 6.2 7.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 83.1 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.0 4.8 7.1 33.3 9.5 31.0 11.9 2.4