Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +7.9 70
Expected Predictive Rating +8.7 64
Pace 69.0 173
Improvement -1.3 244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ #45 B+ B+ B B+ A-
Defense C #162 C+ C+ C- B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 36 58% 179 +3.3 75
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% 353 40% 106 -4.1 351
Three Pointers 47% 64 39% 22 +6.3 22
1st FG Attempt 1.13 44 +5.5 43
Second Chance 32.0% 143 1.29 4 0.41 29
Turnovers 15.1% 68
Freethrows 0.34 90 80% 5 0.27 31
Total Offense +7.8 45

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 189 58% 180 +0.1 180
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 198 32% 14 +1.5 75
Three Pointers 42% 150 35% 212 -0.8 221
1st FG Attempt 1.00 153 +0.8 152
Second Chance 26.3% 44 1.11 302 0.29 121
Turnovers 15.9% 241
Freethrows 0.27 82 73% 238 0.20 99
Total Defense +0.2 162

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.9 9 +0.1 184
Shot Type Accuracy +3.3 75 -0.8 151
Possession Length 16.4 89 18.0 290
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 118 0.14 73
Improvement -1.7 #284 +0.4 #162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 28% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 1% 0%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 42% 59% 25%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 0%
First Round26% 28% 24%
Second Round5% 5% 4%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 49.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 24 - 34 - 4
Quad 310 - 314 - 7
Quad 410 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 116 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 68% +9  93% 1 - 0 A +20 A+ +16 B A+ C B +6 B- D+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 337 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 93% -2  21% 2 - 0 D+ -7 B +6 D+ B- D+ F -13 F D F+
 Mon, Nov 17 101 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 49% -3  15% 2 - 1 B- +7 B- +5 D+ D+ A+ B- +2 A F D-
 Fri, Nov 21 152 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 84% -2  27% 3 - 1 B- +6 A- +10 A C- B+ D+ -4 D- B- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 236 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 87% +13  92% 4 - 1 A+ +26 A +14 A- A+ B+ A+ +16 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 100 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 61% +3  72% 5 - 1 B +8 C+ +2 B D+ B- B+ +6 A C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 179 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 87% +14  95% 6 - 1 A +20 A+ +25 A+ C A+ D+ -4 F A B+
 Wed, Dec 10 313 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 96% +16  91% 7 - 1 A +21 A+ +24 A+ A+ B D -6 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 13 167 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 79% +13  98% 8 - 1 B+ +13 B +6 A+ A+ F B+ +6 A- B+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 160 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 69% -3  11% 9 - 1 C+ +4 B+ +9 B D+ A+ D+ -5 D D+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 257 Denver W 90 - 85 93% +4  91% 10 - 1 C- -3 D+ -3 F+ B B- C -1 B F A
 Wed, Dec 31 220 Rice W 97 - 48 90% +16  99% 11 - 1 1 - 0 A+ +43 A+ +25 A+ B C+ A+ +22 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 144 @North Texas L 67 - 72 65% +0  40% 11 - 2 1 - 1 C -1 B +7 D+ A+ B- D- -9 D F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 62 South Florida L 78 - 93 59% -8  11% 11 - 3 1 - 2 D -9 C +1 C F B- F+ -10 F C C-
 Wed, Jan 14 168 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 70% +8  94% 12 - 3 2 - 2 A- +14 A +14 A+ D+ D+ C+ +2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 118 @UAB W 99 - 77 58% +10  97% 13 - 3 3 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +25 A+ B- B+ B- +3 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 86 Memphis W 83 - 66 67% +3  72% 14 - 3 4 - 2 A +20 A+ +18 C A+ A+ B- +3 A- C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 220 @Rice W 87 - 81 78% +13  98% 15 - 3 5 - 2 B- +6 A+ +15 C A+ C+ D- -8 F D- B-
 Wed, Jan 28 144 North Texas W 82 - 66 82% +4  85% 16 - 3 6 - 2 B+ +14 A- +10 B+ A A B +4 B- A C-
 Sun, Feb 1 96 Wichita St. W 93 - 83 71% +6  76% 17 - 3 7 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +17 A+ A+ B D+ -5 A- D- F+
 Wed, Feb 4 114 @Florida Atlantic W 78 - 76 57% -1  38% 18 - 3 8 - 2 B +8 B- +4 C+ D+ A+ B +5 A D F+
 Sun, Feb 8 62 @South Florida L 74 - 80 36% -6  0% 18 - 4 8 - 3 B- +6 B +5 D+ A+ D+ C +0 C- A+ F
 Wed, Feb 11 118 UAB L 63 - 68 78% -4  14% 18 - 5 8 - 4 D+ -5 F+ -9 C- C F B- +4 B+ B D
 Sat, Feb 14 96 @Wichita St. L 75 - 76 49%
 Wed, Feb 18 168 Charlotte W 82 - 71 86%
 Sun, Feb 22 350 Texas San Antonio W 91 - 67 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 174 @Tulane W 80 - 74 71%
 Thu, Mar 5 252 @East Carolina W 82 - 72 83%
 Sun, Mar 8 148 Temple W 82 - 72 84%
Totals 23 - 6 13 - 5 +8 B+ +8 B+ B+ B C +0 C+ C+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C C+ A- B- 44% 9% 47% A- B+ C+ A+ B+ B B- A B+ C C A- C- C+ 38% 20% 42% C C+ B D C+ C- B- C- B-
1.20 58% 40% 39% +3 +2 1.13 32% 1.3 .41 15% .34 80% .27 1.08 58% 32% 35% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.1 .29 16% .27 73% .25
Nov
7		 Rhode Island A+ C F A+ B 47% 16% 38% B- B A+ A+ A+ C A+ F B+ B C- A+ B- B- 43% 19% 38% C+ B- C+ F+ D+ A D+ F+ D-
1.26 57% 14% 47% +3 +1 1.11 45% 1.6 .72 21% .47 63% .29 1.00 61% 25% 31% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.1 .36 25% .39 79% .30
Nov
12		 Oral Roberts B D F B- D 51% 9% 40% B+ D+ C+ B B- D+ A+ A- A+ F F A+ F F 31% 13% 56% C F A F D F+ C- A C+
1.21 50% 25% 37% -3 +2 1.00 34% 1.3 .43 16% .59 78% .46 1.20 76% 0% 42% +8 0 1.18 19% 1.7 .31 14% .32 65% .21
Nov
17		 Kansas St. B- C- A+ F D- 44% 5% 51% A+ D+ C D D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B- D- A A+ A+ 43% 21% 36% C+ A C+ F F D- D- F F
1.10 54% 100% 21% -8 +2 0.91 33% 1.1 .36 12% .44 72% .32 1.11 68% 25% 24% -4 0 0.95 33% 1.4 .47 13% .32 90% .29
Nov
21		 Austin Peay A- B D A+ A 35% 6% 59% B+ A D+ C+ C- B+ C- A+ A- D+ B D- F D- 49% 17% 34% F+ D- B- C+ B- D- B- B B-
1.23 67% 33% 43% +11 +2 1.27 27% 0.8 .20 16% .28 94% .26 1.10 50% 44% 44% +3 +1 1.09 25% 1.1 .28 13% .27 69% .19
Nov
25		 San Jose St. A D+ F A+ B+ 48% 6% 46% A- A- D+ A+ A+ B+ F B+ F+ A+ A+ A- C- A+ 29% 35% 35% B+ A+ C B B- A- A B A
1.32 57% 0% 50% +8 +3 1.23 31% 1.9 .58 15% .19 80% .15 0.83 29% 29% 35% -11 -3 0.75 33% 0.9 .30 20% .20 70% .14
Nov
26		 Northern Iowa C+ B- D+ C B 33% 13% 54% B- B F A+ D+ B- B- A+ A B+ C- A+ A+ A 41% 20% 39% B- A B- F C- C B+ D+ B
1.00 60% 33% 32% -1 +1 1.00 13% 1.3 .17 16% .28 93% .26 0.95 62% 20% 25% -7 0 0.88 19% 1.3 .25 14% .19 70% .13
Dec
6		 Missouri St. A+ D+ F A+ A+ 40% 2% 58% A+ A+ A+ F C A+ A+ A- A+ D+ C- A F F 31% 18% 51% D F A+ C- A B+ C A B-
1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40 1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21
Dec
10		 Arkansas Pine Bluff A+ B- D+ A+ A+ 49% 5% 45% A A+ C+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ D F B- B+ F 39% 17% 44% F+ F C+ F D C+ D+ F F+
1.51 63% 33% 48% +12 +3 1.31 37% 1.8 .67 13% .55 84% .46 1.09 81% 33% 29% +5 +1 1.13 24% 1.3 .31 19% .34 86% .29
Dec
13		 New Mexico St. B C C- A+ A 29% 7% 63% A- A+ C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ B+ A A C+ A+ 43% 22% 35% F A- A+ F+ B+ C+ F B- F
1.19 58% 33% 42% +8 +1 1.20 32% 1.6 .52 23% .65 83% .54 1.00 45% 27% 33% -8 0 0.86 21% 1.1 .24 16% .44 69% .31
Dec
19		 Western Kentucky B+ B+ A+ C- B- 29% 8% 63% A- B F A+ D+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A A+ F D 38% 13% 48% D D A- F D+ D- F F+ F
1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37 1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30
Dec
22		 Denver D+ D- A+ F F 67% 2% 31% A+ F+ B+ C B B- B B+ B+ C D- C+ A+ B+ 35% 30% 35% C B F F F A F D F
1.17 54% 100% 22% -7 +5 0.97 41% 1.1 .45 12% .35 75% .27 1.11 63% 38% 26% -2 -1 0.94 39% 1.4 .55 20% .42 81% .34
Dec
31		 Rice A+ A F A+ A+ 53% 14% 33% A+ A+ A D B C+ F A+ F+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ 24% 31% 45% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C- A+ C+
1.49 74% 14% 71% +24 +2 1.53 44% 0.9 .40 15% .22 83% .18 0.74 50% 20% 23% -15 -2 0.67 27% 0.6 .16 18% .32 59% .19
Jan
4		 North Texas B F B+ D- D 51% 16% 33% A- D+ C A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D- C- A- F D- 44% 27% 29% A- D B+ F F+ F C+ F D+
1.08 45% 43% 29% -8 +1 0.88 32% 1.6 .50 21% .51 84% .43 1.16 60% 25% 38% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.4 .42 13% .33 78% .26
Jan
10		 South Florida C D A+ F C- 37% 12% 51% A- C F D- F B- A+ A+ A+ F+ D A+ F+ F 29% 2% 70% B- F B- D C C- A- B+ A
1.06 50% 80% 27% -3 +1 0.98 18% 0.8 .15 18% .65 79% .51 1.27 63% 0% 38% +5 +2 1.16 36% 1.3 .46 15% .31 68% .21
Jan
14		 Charlotte A D+ A+ A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% A+ A+ A F D+ D+ A- A+ A+ C+ C F C C- 46% 14% 40% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F B+ F C-
1.29 56% 50% 53% +10 +3 1.27 39% 0.7 .29 16% .39 82% .32 1.11 61% 57% 35% +5 +1 1.14 17% 0.4 .07 12% .29 88% .26
Jan
18		 UAB A+ A A+ A+ A+ 49% 10% 41% A A+ C- A+ B- B+ F A+ D- B- D- B+ D+ D 38% 41% 21% A+ C A+ A- A+ F C- D+ D+
1.38 72% 67% 46% +17 +2 1.41 24% 1.2 .28 14% .16 90% .15 1.08 67% 30% 33% 0 -3 0.96 23% 0.9 .20 7% .33 73% .24
Jan
21		 Memphis A+ F D- B+ C- 40% 16% 44% B C A A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C+ A+ A A 37% 18% 45% D+ A- C- B- C+ B+ C+ C C+
1.26 41% 29% 37% -6 +1 0.91 42% 1.1 .47 12% .62 86% .54 1.00 58% 22% 26% -8 0 0.86 38% 1.1 .40 23% .28 71% .20
Jan
24		 Rice A+ C F A- C- 38% 21% 42% B+ C B A+ A+ C+ A+ B+ A+ D- F+ F F F 24% 31% 45% C+ F D- D D- B- B B B
1.31 61% 20% 40% +1 0 1.04 38% 1.8 .68 15% .50 79% .39 1.22 67% 47% 45% +13 -2 1.22 41% 1.0 .41 20% .26 64% .17
Jan
28		 North Texas A- C D+ C+ C+ 56% 6% 38% A+ B+ C- A+ A A C- A+ B B A- F A+ B 56% 12% 33% F B- B A+ A C- D+ A- C
1.16 56% 33% 33% -2 +3 1.04 31% 1.6 .48 18% .36 86% .31 0.93 48% 50% 24% -9 +2 0.88 30% 0.7 .21 17% .37 64% .24
Feb
1		 Wichita St. A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ 42% 19% 40% B+ A+ B A+ A+ B A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ D C A 47% 24% 29% C A- A+ F D- F+ F B+ F
1.28 75% 44% 37% +10 0 1.23 33% 2.1 .71 15% .44 70% .31 1.14 38% 42% 33% -9 0 0.84 30% 1.5 .47 11% .50 63% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 Florida Atlantic B- B F C- C+ 42% 15% 44% C+ C+ F+ B+ D+ A+ C- C+ C- B F+ A+ A+ A 36% 17% 47% C A C- D D F+ A- A+ A
1.08 61% 25% 33% -1 +1 1.02 19% 1.1 .22 11% .30 74% .22 1.05 67% 30% 22% -6 0 0.90 35% 1.2 .43 14% .24 60% .14
Feb
8		 South Florida B F F C+ D+ 22% 14% 63% C+ D+ A A+ A+ D+ C+ F D+ C D F A C- 43% 6% 51% C C- A A+ A+ F F D F
1.08 36% 29% 35% -5 0 0.92 40% 1.4 .55 20% .33 61% .20 1.17 64% 67% 27% -1 +2 1.04 31% 0.5 .15 10% .49 77% .37
Feb
11		 UAB F+ B- C- F D+ 43% 12% 45% A- C- C+ C- C F F F F B- A+ A+ F+ A- 50% 20% 30% D- B+ B+ C- B D A C+ A
0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +1 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 21% .17 67% .11 1.02 44% 18% 38% -9 +1 0.85 27% 1.1 .30 9% .21 69% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.6 20.2 19.1 42.0 1st
2nd 1.0 16.3 19.8 3.2 40.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.5 6.9 0.1 10.5 3rd
4th 0.2 3.9 0.6 4.6 4th
5th 0.6 1.1 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.6 9.5 26.4 40.0 22.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 85.8% 19.1    11.0 8.1
13-5 50.5% 20.2    4.5 11.2 4.2 0.2
12-6 9.9% 2.6    0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.0% 42.0 15.6 19.8 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 22.3% 31.4% 30.0% 1.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 5.7 1.1 15.3 2.0%
13-5 40.0% 27.3% 26.9% 0.4% 11.4 6.5 4.4 0.0 29.1 0.6%
12-6 26.4% 24.4% 24.3% 0.1% 11.6 2.5 3.9 0.1 20.0 0.2%
11-7 9.5% 17.3% 17.3% 11.8 0.4 1.2 0.1 7.9
10-8 1.6% 14.7% 14.7% 11.8 0.1 0.2 1.4
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.3% 25.7% 0.5% 11.4 73.8 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.7% 100.0% 11.1 0.6 3.6 80.4 15.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.0% 2.6% 11.2 2.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.4% 2.4% 11.2 1.8 0.6