New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#127
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#137
Pace63.2#331
Improvement-3.7#354

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#141
First Shot-1.0#207
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#63
Layup/Dunks-4.6#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#312
Freethrows+2.3#64
Improvement-1.8#315

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#132
First Shot+0.7#150
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#157
Layups/Dunks+3.3#70
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
Freethrows-4.0#344
Improvement-2.0#323
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.8% 16.9% 12.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.6 13.1
.500 or above 85.3% 93.6% 80.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.4% 87.9% 79.3%
Conference Champion 17.8% 22.7% 15.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round13.8% 16.9% 12.0%
Second Round1.6% 2.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Neutral) - 36.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 32 - 3
Quad 37 - 68 - 9
Quad 410 - 218 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 15 84 New Mexico W 76-68 45%     1 - 0 +11.5 +10.5 +1.6
  Fri, Nov 21 231 Samford W 81-72 81%     2 - 0 +1.9 +13.5 -10.5
  Tue, Nov 25 120 UC Irvine W 57-45 47%     3 - 0 +14.9 -8.7 +23.7
  Wed, Nov 26 338 Georgia St. W 77-58 89%     4 - 0 +7.9 -2.7 +9.5
  Tue, Dec 2 166 South Alabama L 75-77 62%     4 - 1 -2.8 +5.7 -8.6
  Sat, Dec 6 215 @Abilene Christian L 69-77 61%     4 - 2 -8.5 +5.6 -14.9
  Sat, Dec 13 89 Tulsa L 69-73 36%    
  Sun, Dec 21 126 Sam Houston St. W 75-72 61%    
  Fri, Jan 2 189 @Florida International W 73-72 54%    
  Sun, Jan 4 255 @Missouri St. W 68-64 66%    
  Thu, Jan 8 128 Western Kentucky W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 136 Middle Tennessee W 73-69 63%    
  Thu, Jan 15 94 @Liberty L 66-72 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 296 @Delaware W 72-65 73%    
  Thu, Jan 22 255 Missouri St. W 71-61 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 189 Florida International W 76-69 74%    
  Wed, Jan 28 296 Delaware W 75-62 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 152 @Kennesaw St. L 76-77 47%    
  Wed, Feb 4 193 @Louisiana Tech W 65-64 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 241 @UTEP W 67-63 63%    
  Wed, Feb 11 94 Liberty L 69-70 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 239 @Jacksonville St. W 66-62 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 241 UTEP W 70-60 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 128 @Western Kentucky L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 136 @Middle Tennessee L 70-72 41%    
  Thu, Mar 5 239 Jacksonville St. W 69-59 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 152 Kennesaw St. W 79-74 67%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 4.9 4.0 2.2 0.9 0.2 17.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.6 4.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.1 5.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 14.6 3rd
4th 0.4 2.8 5.6 3.3 0.7 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 4.8 3.0 0.5 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 2.1 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 2.8 5.0 6.8 9.2 11.3 12.6 12.6 11.9 9.7 7.4 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.9 0.0
18-2 97.9% 2.2    2.0 0.1
17-3 88.4% 4.0    3.2 0.8 0.0
16-4 66.9% 4.9    3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 37.6% 3.6    1.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
14-6 13.5% 1.6    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1
13-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.8% 17.8 11.2 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 54.0% 50.8% 3.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6.5%
19-1 0.9% 47.5% 47.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5
18-2 2.2% 41.8% 41.8% 11.8 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.3
17-3 4.5% 32.5% 32.5% 12.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.0
16-4 7.4% 28.3% 28.3% 12.5 0.0 1.1 0.8 0.1 5.3
15-5 9.7% 22.2% 22.2% 12.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.5
14-6 11.9% 17.6% 17.6% 13.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 9.8
13-7 12.6% 14.3% 14.3% 13.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 10.8
12-8 12.6% 10.2% 10.2% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.3
11-9 11.3% 6.6% 6.6% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 10.5
10-10 9.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.8
9-11 6.8% 3.1% 3.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.5
8-12 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 4.8
7-13 2.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 1.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.8% 13.8% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.3 5.4 2.6 0.6 0.2 86.2 0.0%