UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.5#241
Expected Predictive Rating-10.9#316
Pace64.7#304
Improvement+0.2#178

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#313
First Shot-5.9#330
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#150
Layup/Dunks-4.1#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#241
Freethrows-2.8#326
Improvement-0.4#209

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#144
First Shot+1.6#117
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#243
Layups/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#97
Freethrows-2.5#321
Improvement+0.6#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 9.3% 21.2% 7.2%
.500 or above in Conference 27.2% 39.9% 25.0%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.2% 10.3% 19.6%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round1.6% 3.0% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Away) - 14.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 15
Quad 46 - 49 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 140 Loyola Marymount L 58-71 39%     0 - 1 -14.6 -6.5 -9.6
  Sat, Nov 15 51 @Utah St. L 51-75 6%     0 - 2 -10.5 -14.2 +3.0
  Mon, Nov 24 119 William & Mary L 63-74 24%     0 - 3 -7.9 -11.3 +3.9
  Tue, Nov 25 110 UAB L 59-75 22%     0 - 4 -12.3 -5.5 -8.5
  Sun, Dec 7 113 @Seattle L 60-71 15%    
  Sun, Dec 14 104 @Hawaii L 62-74 13%    
  Sun, Dec 21 218 Norfolk St. W 64-62 58%    
  Mon, Dec 29 193 @Louisiana Tech L 60-65 31%    
  Fri, Jan 2 255 @Missouri St. L 63-65 42%    
  Sun, Jan 4 189 @Florida International L 67-73 30%    
  Thu, Jan 8 136 Middle Tennessee L 67-70 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 128 Western Kentucky L 70-74 37%    
  Thu, Jan 15 296 @Delaware L 66-67 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 94 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Jan 22 189 Florida International W 71-70 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 255 Missouri St. W 66-62 63%    
  Wed, Jan 28 193 Louisiana Tech W 63-62 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 296 Delaware W 70-64 70%    
  Wed, Feb 4 126 @Sam Houston St. L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Feb 7 127 New Mexico St. L 63-67 37%    
  Wed, Feb 11 239 @Jacksonville St. L 61-64 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 94 Liberty L 64-71 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 127 @New Mexico St. L 60-70 20%    
  Thu, Feb 26 136 @Middle Tennessee L 64-73 21%    
  Sat, Feb 28 128 @Western Kentucky L 67-77 20%    
  Thu, Mar 5 152 Kennesaw St. L 74-76 44%    
  Sat, Mar 7 239 Jacksonville St. W 64-61 60%    
Projected Record 8 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.2 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 3.1 0.4 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.8 5.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.6 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.7 4.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 13.8 11th
12th 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.3 3.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.9 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.8 7.5 10.0 11.8 12.4 11.5 10.8 8.6 6.8 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 87.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 68.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 43.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 16.1% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 21.7% 21.7% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.5% 22.8% 22.8% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.0% 11.0% 11.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 2.0% 12.7% 12.7% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.7
13-7 3.2% 8.4% 8.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9
12-8 4.8% 5.7% 5.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.5
11-9 6.8% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6
10-10 8.6% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 8.4
9-11 10.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.7
8-12 11.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.4
7-13 12.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.4
6-14 11.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-15 10.0% 10.0
4-16 7.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.5
3-17 4.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-18 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-19 1.0% 1.0
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%