UTEP
Conference USA
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.2#139
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#116
Pace69.8#131
Improvement-0.2#199

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#185
First Shot+1.7#115
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#302
Layup/Dunks+0.4#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows+2.2#61
Improvement+0.9#140

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#130
First Shot+2.4#95
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#262
Layups/Dunks+4.9#40
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#150
Freethrows-3.5#353
Improvement-1.1#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 9.4% 7.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.1 13.7
.500 or above 97.4% 100.0% 95.9%
.500 or above in Conference 75.4% 93.7% 65.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 2.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.9% 9.4% 7.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Away) - 36.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 37 - 711 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 125   @ Utah Valley L 60-89 37%     0 - 1 -24.4 -14.0 -7.7
  Nov 20, 2024 145   @ UC Santa Barbara W 79-76 41%     1 - 1 +6.5 +9.6 -3.0
  Nov 25, 2024 163   San Jose St. L 65-71 55%     1 - 2 -6.2 -7.9 +1.6
  Nov 26, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 70-44 82%     2 - 2 +17.6 -5.5 +24.1
  Nov 27, 2024 154   UNC Greensboro W 64-58 52%     3 - 2 +6.6 +2.0 +5.5
  Dec 07, 2024 165   Seattle W 88-72 65%     4 - 2 +13.2 +16.4 -2.9
  Dec 11, 2024 21   @ Louisville L 74-77 6%     4 - 3 +15.3 +9.9 +5.4
  Dec 16, 2024 273   Tarleton St. W 67-62 83%     5 - 3 -3.9 +0.3 -3.7
  Dec 20, 2024 271   Jackson St. W 67-61 81%     6 - 3 -2.3 -7.0 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2024 70   Yale W 75-74 34%     7 - 3 +6.5 +2.7 +3.8
  Jan 02, 2025 123   Louisiana Tech W 70-60 56%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +9.6 +0.1 +9.9
  Jan 04, 2025 160   Sam Houston St. W 81-72 64%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +6.6 +9.0 -2.1
  Jan 11, 2025 146   New Mexico St. L 57-85 61%     9 - 4 2 - 1 -29.7 -8.0 -24.6
  Jan 16, 2025 77   @ Liberty W 72-70 20%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +11.9 +7.8 +4.1
  Jan 18, 2025 268   @ Florida International W 81-73 66%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +5.0 +12.4 -7.2
  Jan 23, 2025 124   Jacksonville St. L 66-73 57%     11 - 5 4 - 2 -7.5 -6.6 -1.0
  Jan 25, 2025 131   Kennesaw St. W 73-71 58%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +1.1 -2.3 +3.3
  Jan 30, 2025 135   @ Western Kentucky L 74-78 40%     12 - 6 5 - 3 -0.1 -0.9 +1.1
  Feb 01, 2025 122   @ Middle Tennessee L 68-71 36%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +1.8 +2.2 -0.6
  Feb 08, 2025 146   @ New Mexico St. W 66-63 42%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +6.4 -0.9 +7.4
  Feb 13, 2025 268   Florida International W 77-63 81%     14 - 7 7 - 4 +5.9 +3.4 +2.5
  Feb 15, 2025 77   Liberty L 69-76 36%     14 - 8 7 - 5 -2.2 +4.2 -6.7
  Feb 20, 2025 131   @ Kennesaw St. L 73-83 39%     14 - 9 7 - 6 -5.8 +2.0 -7.6
  Feb 22, 2025 124   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-72 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 135   Western Kentucky W 77-75 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 122   Middle Tennessee W 74-72 58%    
  Mar 06, 2025 160   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-74 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 123   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-71 35%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.8 1st
2nd 0.2 4.4 1.7 6.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 7.0 7.2 0.1 14.3 3rd
4th 3.2 15.1 1.1 19.4 4th
5th 0.2 13.7 5.8 0.0 19.8 5th
6th 0.0 5.9 12.4 0.5 18.7 6th
7th 1.2 11.3 2.2 14.7 7th
8th 3.2 2.4 5.6 8th
9th 0.4 0.4 9th
10th 10th
Total 4.7 19.9 31.6 28.5 12.8 2.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 28.8% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.5% 16.0% 16.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.1
11-7 12.8% 10.8% 10.8% 12.9 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.4
10-8 28.5% 9.2% 9.2% 13.4 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 25.9
9-9 31.6% 7.8% 7.8% 13.7 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.2 29.1
8-10 19.9% 4.7% 4.7% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 18.9
7-11 4.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.1 0.0 4.6
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.9 3.0 3.2 0.7 0.0 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.4 5.0 55.0 37.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 2.6%