UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #256
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #267
Pace 63.6 #318
Improvement +1.1 #128

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #263 D+ D+ C F F
Defense #238 D+ D+ C+ F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.23 #103 -3.6 #299
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #33 0.66 #313 +2.1 #80
Three Pointers 40% #209 1.00 #213 -1.1 #218
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #255 -2.6 #254
Freethrows 15.3 #305 67% #332 10.2 #324
Second Chance 27.1% #282 1.06 #161 0.29 #246
Turnovers 16.8% #200
Total Offense -3.2 #263

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #229 1.18 #204 +0.5 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #98 0.87 #331 -2.2 #332
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.07 #248 -0.5 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #253 -2.3 #252
Freethrows 21.7 #342 72% #166 15.6 #336
Second Chance 33.4% #296 1.05 #188 0.35 #257
Turnovers 17.5% #113
Total Defense -1.9 #238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #348 -0.8% #99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #206 5.4% #277
Possession Length 18.6 #307 17.6 #225
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #194 0.15 #123
Improvement +1.9 #85 -0.8 #239

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.8
.500 or above 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 19.6% 5.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 4.9% 13.8%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 47.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 104 - 16
Quad 45 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 155 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 41% -3  0 - 1 -16 -7 D F A -11 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 39 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 4% -12  0 - 2 -8 -15 F D F +6 A- B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 138 William & Mary L 63 - 74 27% -8  0 - 3 -10 -11 F B- C +2 C B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 117 UAB L 59 - 75 23% -7  0 - 4 -13 -6 C F F -9 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 121 @Seattle L 68 - 75 16% -1  0 - 5 -1 +7 B- C+ B- -9 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 106 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 12% +2  0 - 6 +2 +2 D A+ A- +0 B+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 291 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 70% -3  0 - 7 -11 -5 C C F -7 F A- A-
 Mon, Dec 22 147 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 39% +3  1 - 7 +8 +4 C C C +4 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 228 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 34% -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -1 F A F -13 F A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 179 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 26% -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -22 -6 F D- D -21 F F C
 Sun, Jan 4 192 @Florida International L 64 - 76 28% -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -11 -5 F F B -6 D+ F B
 Thu, Jan 8 128 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 34% -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 +2 +9 C A+ A -7 B+ C C+
 Sat, Jan 10 162 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 43% -0  2 - 11 1 - 4 -15 -16 F F F +0 B- B C+
 Thu, Jan 15 295 @Delaware W 70 - 69 48% -2  3 - 11 2 - 4 -4 +5 C C A+ -9 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 94 @Liberty L 69 - 80 11% -7  3 - 12 2 - 5 -2 +7 A+ F F -10 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 192 Florida International W 83 - 77 50% +5  4 - 12 3 - 5 +1 +5 A- C- F -5 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 179 Missouri St. L 67 - 68 47%
 Wed, Jan 28 228 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 62 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 295 Delaware W 69 - 63 70%
 Wed, Feb 4 124 @Sam Houston St. L 68 - 79 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 133 New Mexico St. L 68 - 72 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 216 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 69 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 94 Liberty L 66 - 74 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 133 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 75 19%
 Thu, Feb 26 128 @Middle Tennessee L 63 - 73 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 162 @Western Kentucky L 69 - 77 23%
 Thu, Mar 5 150 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 77 40%
 Sat, Mar 7 216 Jacksonville St. W 67 - 66 55%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -5 -3 D+ D+ C -2 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.3 2.2 1.0 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 5.9 1.6 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 6.8 4.5 0.2 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 7.5 8.4 1.0 18.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 7.8 10.0 2.5 0.0 22.4 10th
11th 0.2 2.1 7.1 7.8 2.8 0.2 20.1 11th
12th 0.5 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.1 12th
Total 0.7 3.8 10.6 17.4 21.7 19.7 14.1 7.4 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 25.0% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 1.1% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.0
10-10 7.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.3
9-11 14.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.0
8-12 19.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 19.6
7-13 21.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 21.6
6-14 17.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 17.4
5-15 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.8 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%