Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 160
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 164
Pace 73.1 65
Improvement -3.3 315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #223 D- C B+ C C
Defense C+ #118 C B+ C+ D- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 159 46% 361 -4.2 318
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 190 34% 302 -0.9 229
Three Pointers 41% 188 33% 231 -0.9 211
1st FG Attempt 0.90 337 -6.0 338
Second Chance 33.0% 104 0.93 304 0.31 188
Turnovers 14.3% 37
Freethrows 0.30 209 73% 148 0.22 183
Total Offense -2.1 223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 323 55% 91 +4.6 43
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 89 41% 276 -1.7 310
Three Pointers 44% 86 36% 280 -3.2 315
1st FG Attempt 1.03 187 -0.3 187
Second Chance 28.3% 93 0.86 14 0.24 32
Turnovers 18.0% 109
Freethrows 0.39 355 70% 59 0.27 336
Total Defense +1.8 118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.1 178 -0.8 60
Shot Type Accuracy -6.0 345 +1.1 225
Possession Length 16.7 111 17.0 143
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 168 0.12 31
Improvement -3.9 #341 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 62% 74% 41%
.500 or above in Conference 57% 70% 34%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 2%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 316 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 320 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 88% +9  92% 1 - 0 C -1 D- -7 F B C+ B +5 D+ D+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 267 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 60% -0  39% 2 - 0 B- +5 C +1 D+ F A+ B- +4 F A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 235 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 75% +9  96% 3 - 0 B- +6 B +7 C- B A+ C- -2 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 14 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 5% -6  16% 3 - 1 B+ +14 C -0 B- D D+ A+ +14 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 62 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 20% +5  73% 3 - 2 C+ +3 C- -2 C C D+ B+ +6 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 96 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 29% +1  54% 4 - 2 B +10 A- +11 B- C A+ C -0 C A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 273 Evansville W 80 - 79 80% +3  55% 5 - 2 D -8 C- -2 C- D- D D -7 F+ C- B-
 Wed, Dec 10 164 @Marshall L 61 - 77 39% -7  24% 5 - 3 D- -13 F -13 F+ F C+ C -1 B- C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 70 Tulsa L 81 - 82 31% +3  84% 5 - 4 C+ +4 C+ +3 C- B A C+ +1 C A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 184 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 43% -12  3% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -10 D -5 F D+ C+ D+ -5 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 121 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 50% -1  33% 6 - 5 1 - 1 B +11 A+ +16 D+ A+ C+ D -6 C- C D+
 Sun, Jan 4 223 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 72% +7  93% 7 - 5 2 - 1 C -1 D -5 F B- B B- +4 B+ C F+
 Thu, Jan 8 167 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 39% -16  0% 7 - 6 2 - 2 D- -13 D- -8 F B+ A+ D -7 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 239 @UTEP W 68 - 56 54% +0  45% 8 - 6 3 - 2 B +11 D -4 D- D A- A+ +15 A A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 179 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 65% +6  72% 9 - 6 4 - 2 B +11 A+ +15 B- A+ A+ C- -3 B D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 154 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 60% -5  15% 9 - 7 4 - 3 F -19 F -14 F F A D+ -4 D A+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 95 Liberty L 69 - 76 40% -5  10% 9 - 8 4 - 4 C- -5 D+ -3 D+ B- D C- -3 D+ C A-
 Sat, Jan 24 121 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 28% -14  0% 9 - 9 4 - 5 D -9 F -13 F B+ F B- +3 B F F+
 Wed, Jan 28 154 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 37% +0  35% 9 - 10 4 - 6 C +0 D- -6 F B A B+ +6 C- A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 173 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 40% +1  57% 10 - 10 5 - 6 B- +7 D -5 C F B+ A +12 B- A B-
 Thu, Feb 5 184 Jacksonville St. L 66 - 71 66% -1  32% 10 - 11 5 - 7 D -10 F -12 F F B C+ +2 A+ D- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 188 Florida International W 80 - 70 67% -1  36% 11 - 11 6 - 7 B- +5 B- +4 F+ C+ A+ C+ +1 C+ B B
 Sat, Feb 14 173 Middle Tennessee W 73 - 70 64%
 Wed, Feb 18 279 @Delaware W 71 - 67 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 95 @Liberty L 70 - 79 21%
 Thu, Feb 26 167 New Mexico St. W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 239 UTEP W 74 - 67 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 179 @Missouri St. L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 188 @Florida International L 79 - 80 45%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 +0 C- -2 D- C B+ C+ +2 C B+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- F D+ C- D- 39% 20% 41% C D- B- D C B+ C- C+ C C+ B- D+ D+ C- 32% 23% 44% B C B- A- B+ C+ F+ B D-
1.06 46% 34% 33% -6 0 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 14% .30 73% .22 1.06 55% 41% 36% +1 -1 1.03 28% 0.9 .24 18% .39 70% .21
Nov
3		 Tennessee Tech D- F B+ F F 54% 26% 20% C+ F C+ A- B C+ A+ B+ A+ B B F C+ D+ 30% 17% 53% C- D+ B+ F D+ A A- A+ A+
1.08 37% 46% 20% -13 0 0.76 33% 1.4 .46 14% .54 80% .43 0.92 50% 56% 32% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.3 .33 25% .21 50% .10
Nov
10		 Eastern Kentucky C B+ B+ F C- 42% 27% 32% C- D+ D F F A+ B+ F C+ B- F F B- F 10% 42% 48% A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A D+
1.15 68% 50% 26% +4 -1 1.08 28% 0.5 .14 4% .39 64% .25 1.05 100% 64% 32% +14 -5 1.19 24% 0.5 .12 19% .33 65% .21
Nov
16		 Tennessee St. B B- A+ F D 68% 8% 25% A C- C+ A- B A+ A+ D A- C- A F F F 30% 28% 42% B- F C+ A+ A+ B F C F
1.24 64% 75% 15% 0 +4 1.09 33% 1.3 .42 12% .47 72% .34 1.07 47% 50% 43% +6 -2 1.10 29% 0.4 .11 18% .54 74% .40
Nov
26		 Vanderbilt C C+ F B+ B- 38% 18% 44% B+ B- B F D D+ A+ C- A+ A+ D+ A+ D B+ 37% 20% 43% B- B A+ A A+ A+ F A F
0.97 58% 11% 36% -3 0 0.96 32% 0.6 .18 21% .52 73% .38 1.03 67% 20% 38% +2 0 1.06 20% 1.0 .20 21% .58 70% .41
Nov
27		 South Florida C- C- C+ B- C+ 31% 29% 40% D C D- A+ C D+ A- C- B B+ A- A+ D- B- 47% 13% 40% B- B- A- A+ A+ C+ B D B-
1.00 53% 39% 36% 0 -2 0.98 23% 1.3 .30 21% .39 68% .26 1.06 47% 22% 37% -5 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .29 16% .34 77% .26
Nov
28		 Wichita St. A- F A+ A B- 40% 29% 31% C B- B- D C A+ A+ A A+ C C+ C+ D D+ 31% 29% 40% A C C- A+ A C- F F F
1.18 42% 50% 40% 0 -1 1.00 32% 0.8 .26 11% .41 78% .32 1.10 53% 36% 37% 0 -2 0.98 40% 0.7 .28 14% .48 81% .38
Dec
6		 Evansville C- F F+ A+ D+ 45% 24% 31% B- C- B+ F D- D A+ C+ A D D- B- F F 12% 33% 56% A+ F+ F A C- B- F A+ C-
1.10 44% 31% 53% +1 0 1.04 38% 0.6 .24 19% .39 74% .29 1.08 67% 35% 45% +9 -3 1.13 31% 0.8 .26 21% .40 57% .22
Dec
10		 Marshall F D- F+ D- F 35% 27% 38% C- F+ C F F C+ C+ C+ C+ C B+ D- C- C+ 26% 40% 34% A+ B- D+ B C+ F C+ A- B-
0.89 50% 29% 30% -8 -1 0.85 34% 0.4 .14 16% .36 71% .26 1.12 53% 43% 35% +2 -3 0.98 34% 1.0 .34 12% .25 67% .17
Dec
19		 Tulsa C+ F F A+ C- 38% 13% 48% B- C- C A- B A A+ A- A+ C+ D F B- C- 29% 8% 63% B+ C A+ B+ A+ D F A F
1.14 40% 14% 44% -3 +1 0.98 27% 1.3 .35 11% .38 79% .30 1.16 64% 75% 33% +4 +1 1.13 17% 1.2 .20 13% .52 72% .37
Dec
29		 Jacksonville St. D F F F F 31% 13% 56% C F A+ F D+ C+ B F C D+ D- F F F 46% 3% 51% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F
0.97 41% 29% 27% -13 0 0.78 44% 0.6 .26 16% .36 67% .24 1.13 63% 100% 50% +16 +3 1.40 20% 0.6 .12 25% .75 69% .52
Jan
2		 Sam Houston St. A+ F F B- D+ 35% 13% 53% B- D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A B A D D- D+ C D+ 33% 25% 43% B+ C- D B C D+ D+ B- C-
1.32 47% 29% 34% -4 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31 1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20
Jan
4		 Louisiana Tech D F F F F 23% 9% 68% C- F D A+ B- B A+ A A+ B- B- B+ A B- 31% 37% 31% A+ B+ C+ C- C F+ D- A+ B-
1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36 0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16
Jan
8		 New Mexico St. D- F C+ F F 37% 30% 33% D+ F B B- B+ A+ C D+ C- D A+ C F C+ 28% 28% 43% C+ C+ F C F B- F D F
0.97 15% 38% 22% -22 -1 0.56 36% 1.2 .44 8% .38 74% .28 1.21 31% 38% 45% 0 -2 0.98 44% 0.9 .41 17% .62 76% .47
Jan
10		 UTEP D F+ B- F+ D- 41% 31% 27% D+ D- B F D A- C+ F D- A+ F A+ A+ A- 17% 38% 45% A+ A C A+ A+ A F F F
1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22 0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32
Jan
14		 Missouri St. A+ F A+ A+ B- 38% 29% 33% B- B- B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C- D+ F A B+ 24% 12% 63% D- B D+ D- D- C+ C- F D-
1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41 1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28
Jan
17		 Kennesaw St. F F D+ B- F 37% 16% 47% C F D+ F F A D F F+ D+ A F F F 27% 22% 51% A+ D B A+ A+ D F F+ F
0.90 24% 33% 37% -11 +1 0.81 27% 0.5 .14 11% .36 65% .23 1.12 43% 45% 42% +4 -1 1.08 32% 0.5 .16 15% .47 76% .36
Jan
21		 Liberty D+ F F A D+ 32% 21% 47% C- D+ C+ C+ B- D A F B+ C- A+ A+ F D 33% 2% 65% B- D+ B F C A- F D+ F
1.07 40% 30% 41% -3 -1 0.96 33% 1.3 .42 20% .33 65% .21 1.17 21% 0% 57% +10 +2 1.26 15% 1.3 .19 17% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 Sam Houston St. F F F D- F 37% 14% 49% B- F C- A+ B+ F C B+ B- B- C+ C A A- 49% 16% 35% D- B A F F F+ F+ A+ B+
0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25 1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14
Jan
28		 Kennesaw St. D- F F D- F 40% 19% 40% C- F B B- B A C A+ A- B+ A- A+ F C 59% 5% 36% F C- B A A- C+ F A- F
0.97 26% 27% 30% -17 0 0.68 36% 1.1 .38 11% .40 88% .35 1.01 46% 0% 44% -3 +4 1.02 31% 0.7 .23 18% .52 63% .33
Jan
31		 Middle Tennessee D F+ B- B- C 35% 19% 46% C- C C- F F B+ F B+ F A D+ F A+ B 40% 20% 40% D B- B- A+ A B- F A+ F
0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14 0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Jacksonville St. F C F F F 26% 22% 52% D- F C- F F B A- A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+ A+ 56% 26% 18% B A+ F C- D- A- F D F
0.92 57% 17% 25% -12 -1 0.76 27% 0.6 .16 14% .39 88% .34 0.99 41% 50% 14% -12 +1 0.79 37% 1.0 .37 22% .90 72% .65
Feb
7		 Florida International B- D F D- F 40% 12% 47% B- F+ A- D- C+ A+ F A+ D- C+ F A+ D C- 35% 31% 33% A+ C+ C+ B+ B B D+ F F+
1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18 1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.0 0.7 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 5.3 4.4 0.2 10.5 3rd
4th 0.1 4.7 8.2 1.4 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 1.8 12.4 4.9 0.1 19.2 5th
6th 0.2 8.2 9.6 0.7 18.7 6th
7th 2.3 10.6 1.5 14.4 7th
8th 0.1 5.3 3.6 0.1 9.2 8th
9th 1.1 4.4 0.3 5.8 9th
10th 0.1 1.9 1.3 3.3 10th
11th 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 12th
Total 0.6 4.2 13.5 24.6 28.9 19.4 7.8 0.9 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.9% 20.2% 20.2% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.8
12-8 7.8% 14.4% 14.4% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 6.7
11-9 19.4% 10.3% 10.3% 13.6 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 17.4
10-10 28.9% 5.5% 5.5% 14.1 0.2 0.9 0.4 27.3
9-11 24.6% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.1 0.6 0.0 23.8
8-12 13.5% 1.7% 1.7% 15.4 0.1 0.1 13.3
7-13 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.2
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 13.9 94.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.3%