Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#91
Expected Predictive Rating+3.3#123
Pace65.9#277
Improvement-1.6#290

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#98
First Shot-3.7#279
After Offensive Rebound+6.7#2
Layup/Dunks-2.3#259
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#229
Freethrows+0.1#173
Improvement-0.5#219

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#89
First Shot+2.8#82
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#192
Layups/Dunks+2.1#103
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#356
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#62
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement-1.1#284
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 16.4% 11.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.2
.500 or above 92.5% 95.2% 84.9%
.500 or above in Conference 87.0% 88.7% 81.8%
Conference Champion 18.5% 20.0% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round15.2% 16.3% 11.9%
Second Round3.2% 3.6% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 74.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 43 - 7
Quad 36 - 49 - 11
Quad 411 - 120 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 203 UNC Asheville W 75-58 86%     1 - 0 +11.4 +1.2 +10.8
  Sat, Nov 8 322 Prairie View W 105-62 94%     2 - 0 +30.9 +18.1 +8.9
  Thu, Nov 13 260 Loyola Chicago W 95-74 90%     3 - 0 +12.6 +23.6 -9.5
  Tue, Nov 18 52 @Boise St. L 59-62 24%     3 - 1 +10.3 +0.2 +9.8
  Sat, Nov 22 219 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-58 88%     4 - 1 +10.3 +1.5 +9.6
  Wed, Nov 26 41 St. Mary's L 65-70 28%     4 - 2 +6.9 +0.4 +6.4
  Thu, Nov 27 72 Colorado St. L 70-76 42%     4 - 3 +1.9 +9.6 -8.8
  Fri, Nov 28 128 Western Kentucky L 70-75 64%     4 - 4 -2.9 +5.4 -8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 98 @Northern Iowa W 74-69 OT 41%     5 - 4 +13.2 +7.5 +5.6
  Sat, Dec 13 134 DePaul W 75-68 74%    
  Wed, Dec 17 247 Wofford W 79-65 90%    
  Sun, Dec 21 269 Eastern Kentucky W 82-68 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 110 @UAB L 73-74 46%    
  Sat, Jan 3 181 @Charlotte W 71-67 66%    
  Wed, Jan 7 213 Rice W 76-64 87%    
  Sun, Jan 11 144 North Texas W 70-62 76%    
  Thu, Jan 15 122 @Florida Atlantic W 73-72 51%    
  Sun, Jan 18 79 @South Florida L 74-78 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 266 East Carolina W 79-65 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 69 Memphis W 73-72 52%    
  Sun, Feb 1 89 @Tulsa L 71-74 39%    
  Wed, Feb 4 181 Charlotte W 74-64 82%    
  Sun, Feb 8 187 @Tulane W 76-71 66%    
  Wed, Feb 11 79 South Florida W 77-75 55%    
  Sat, Feb 14 89 Tulsa W 74-71 60%    
  Wed, Feb 18 266 @East Carolina W 76-68 78%    
  Sat, Feb 21 160 Temple W 79-70 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 69 @Memphis L 70-75 32%    
  Sun, Mar 1 277 @Texas San Antonio W 77-68 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 122 Florida Atlantic W 76-70 70%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.2 5.7 3.1 1.1 0.2 18.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.6 7.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.4 7.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.2 2.5 6.5 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.3 3.5 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.4 3.4 0.6 0.0 8.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.0 0.1 3.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.6 6.2 9.4 12.4 14.5 15.1 13.9 10.3 6.9 3.2 1.1 0.2 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.1    1.1 0.0
16-2 97.6% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 82.6% 5.7    4.1 1.5 0.1
14-4 50.2% 5.2    2.4 2.2 0.6 0.0
13-5 19.9% 2.8    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 11.2 5.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 79.2% 45.3% 34.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.1%
17-1 1.1% 52.2% 45.7% 6.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.5 12.0%
16-2 3.2% 37.3% 35.5% 1.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 2.7%
15-3 6.9% 30.3% 29.9% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.9 0.0 4.8 0.5%
14-4 10.3% 25.7% 25.5% 0.2% 11.7 0.9 1.6 0.1 7.7 0.2%
13-5 13.9% 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.0 0.6 1.9 0.3 0.0 11.1 0.0%
12-6 15.1% 16.2% 16.2% 12.1 0.3 1.7 0.5 0.0 12.7
11-7 14.5% 11.0% 11.0% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 12.9
10-8 12.4% 7.7% 7.7% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.4
9-9 9.4% 5.0% 5.0% 12.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.9
8-10 6.2% 3.0% 3.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.0
7-11 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
5-13 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.8
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.3% 15.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.1 7.9 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 84.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.3 4.8 28.6 28.6 19.0 9.5 4.8 4.8