UNC Asheville
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.9 211
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 249
Pace 65.1 276
Improvement +1.5 125

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #212 C C- C- C+ F
Defense C- #213 C- C+ C- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 359 58% 168 -5.8 346
2 Pt. Jumpers 37% 2 41% 82 +7.4 2
Three Pointers 34% 312 36% 91 -2.2 260
1st FG Attempt 1.01 194 -0.6 194
Second Chance 29.1% 220 1.01 201 0.29 216
Turnovers 17.9% 249
Freethrows 0.34 74 69% 282 0.24 128
Total Offense -1.7 212

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 53 58% 194 -3.1 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 243 44% 344 -0.3 214
Three Pointers 38% 261 33% 152 +1.8 103
1st FG Attempt 1.05 233 -1.6 233
Second Chance 31.3% 215 0.95 71 0.30 133
Turnovers 16.4% 210
Freethrows 0.32 226 69% 31 0.22 185
Total Defense -1.2 213

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -2.8 364 +0.6 287
Shot Type Accuracy +2.4 99 +0.9 218
Possession Length 18.9 330 17.1 156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 282 0.20 255
Improvement +1.2 #118 +0.3 #170

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 7% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.9
.500 or above 9% 15% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 84% 95% 73%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four3% 2% 4%
First Round5% 7% 4%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Longwood (Away) - 49.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 31 - 41 - 10
Quad 411 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 96 @Wichita St. L 58 - 75 15% -4  10% 0 - 1 D -9 F -10 F+ A+ F C+ +1 B+ F A
 Sat, Nov 8 274 @Georgia Southern L 90 - 93 52% +1  56% 0 - 2 D+ -6 C- -0 B- B F+ D -6 D- A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 11 187 Lipscomb W 69 - 64 57% +4  84% 1 - 2 C +0 D+ -3 B B F B- +4 A C- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 263 @Western Carolina L 73 - 80 49% -1  21% 1 - 3 D -10 C +0 B+ F D+ F+ -11 C- D+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 235 Tennessee St. L 73 - 75 66% +3  71% 1 - 4 D -9 F -11 A+ D- F C+ +2 C+ F A-
 Sun, Nov 30 161 Appalachian St. W 67 - 55 52% +8  95% 2 - 4 B +9 C- -2 D+ A+ F A +12 B+ B C
 Tue, Dec 2 302 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 69% +0  41% 3 - 4 C- -3 B +6 B- B+ C+ D- -9 F C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 27 @North Carolina St. L 63 - 75 4% -3  24% 3 - 5 B- +6 D+ -3 D- C+ C A- +9 A F+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 87 Miami (OH) L 87 - 90 OT 27% -6  26% 3 - 6 C +0 C+ +2 B C- B C -1 C A F
 Sat, Dec 13 123 St. Thomas L 59 - 80 41% -13  7% 3 - 7 F -22 F -15 F+ C- F D- -8 D+ C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 118 @UAB L 47 - 72 20% -13  10% 3 - 8 F -19 F -21 F F D- C -0 D+ A- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 92 High Point L 69 - 87 31% -11  3% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F+ -16 D -5 F+ C A+ F -12 F D- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 256 @Charleston Southern L 83 - 86 48% -6  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 D+ -5 B- +5 F A+ C+ F+ -10 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 7 261 Longwood W 72 - 61 71% +6  98% 4 - 10 1 - 2 C+ +2 C +1 C D+ B+ B- +3 C+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 233 @Radford W 91 - 72 43% +9  98% 5 - 10 2 - 2 A +18 A- +10 A+ F C+ B+ +7 A A F
 Wed, Jan 14 272 @Presbyterian L 70 - 71 52% -6  9% 5 - 11 2 - 3 C- -4 C- -2 F C- C C- -2 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 130 Winthrop L 67 - 69 43% -6  3% 5 - 12 2 - 4 C- -3 F -10 F D- B B+ +7 A- B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 297 @South Carolina Upstate W 83 - 69 57% +6  93% 6 - 12 3 - 4 B +9 A +11 A- D B C -1 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 69 - 50 95% +12  95% 7 - 12 4 - 4 C- -3 D -5 C- D- C- B +5 B- C- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 130 @Winthrop L 71 - 84 23% -7  0% 7 - 13 4 - 5 D -8 C+ +3 C- F A F -12 F D- B+
 Wed, Feb 4 297 South Carolina Upstate W 76 - 67 78% +0  46% 8 - 13 5 - 5 C- -2 C -0 A- D D C -1 C- A+ F+
 Thu, Feb 12 261 @Longwood L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 272 Presbyterian W 71 - 65 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 92 @High Point L 71 - 82 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 233 Radford W 79 - 75 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 363 @Gardner-Webb W 80 - 67 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 Charleston Southern W 78 - 72 70%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 7 -3 C- -2 C C- C- C- -1 C- C+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C B- B- B- 28% 37% 34% F C C- C- C- C- B D+ C+ C- C D- C+ C- 43% 18% 38% D+ C- C- B- C+ C- C- B+ C
1.06 58% 41% 36% +2 -3 1.01 29% 1.0 .29 18% .34 69% .24 1.10 58% 44% 33% +1 +1 1.05 31% 0.9 .30 16% .32 69% .23
Nov
4		 Wichita St. F F C+ D- D+ 13% 58% 29% F F+ B- A+ A+ F D+ F D C+ A+ F B B+ 45% 29% 27% B B+ F F F A B- A B+
0.86 33% 39% 29% -5 -7 0.79 31% 1.5 .47 24% .25 62% .15 1.11 36% 50% 31% -8 -1 0.86 51% 1.3 .66 21% .28 60% .17
Nov
8		 Georgia Southern C- C+ A+ F B+ 40% 37% 23% F B- D A+ B F+ B- A B+ D C+ F C+ F+ 47% 14% 39% D+ D- C- A+ A+ F+ F C F
1.12 62% 63% 25% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.4 .45 22% .38 83% .32 1.16 52% 75% 32% +1 +1 1.07 29% 0.6 .17 11% .55 72% .39
Nov
11		 Lipscomb D+ B- A+ B A- 26% 37% 37% F B C A B F A+ F A+ B- B- F A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% C- A F A+ C- C- D B C-
1.07 64% 50% 38% +8 -3 1.12 31% 1.2 .38 23% .48 63% .30 0.99 55% 50% 21% -9 +1 0.87 39% 0.8 .29 15% .27 73% .20
Nov
19		 Western Carolina C A B A+ A+ 15% 43% 43% F B+ D+ F F D+ A F D+ F+ D+ F+ A+ C- 49% 24% 27% C C- F A D+ F F F F
1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22 1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41
Nov
25		 Tennessee St. F C+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 43% 22% F A+ D+ F D- F A+ F A C+ B- D- A+ B- 49% 26% 25% D- C+ F D+ F A- D+ D D
0.99 62% 63% 63% +21 -3 1.38 28% 0.9 .24 31% .55 64% .36 1.02 54% 43% 23% -5 0 0.92 38% 1.1 .41 20% .29 76% .22
Nov
30		 Appalachian St. C- A A+ F C- 29% 29% 41% F+ D+ B A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A F C+ A+ B- 21% 30% 49% A+ B+ A F+ B C B- A+ A
1.04 67% 50% 18% -4 -2 0.90 36% 1.3 .46 20% .52 81% .43 0.85 80% 36% 22% -5 -2 0.87 21% 1.1 .24 16% .28 47% .13
Dec
2		 UNC Greensboro B D- A+ A+ B 35% 35% 31% F B- D+ A+ B+ C+ A+ C A D- F D+ F F 31% 22% 47% C F B- D- C- C+ D+ D+ D+
1.26 53% 53% 47% +9 -2 1.16 28% 1.5 .41 12% .37 71% .26 1.19 79% 40% 43% +13 -1 1.27 25% 1.2 .29 17% .39 71% .28
Dec
6		 North Carolina St. D+ F D A C 13% 46% 42% F D- C- B+ C+ C C+ A B A- F+ B- A+ A+ 48% 12% 40% D- A C+ F F+ A B+ D B
0.93 33% 32% 40% -2 -5 0.88 24% 1.1 .26 21% .32 76% .24 1.11 71% 33% 20% -3 +2 1.00 28% 1.7 .47 18% .27 80% .22
Dec
10		 Miami (OH) C+ B- B A+ A- 29% 34% 36% F B F A+ C- B B C+ B+ C D- C D+ C- 36% 22% 41% B C A+ D- A F C- B- C
1.12 65% 45% 43% +9 -2 1.16 10% 2.3 .24 15% .33 77% .26 1.15 71% 38% 38% +7 0 1.16 12% 1.3 .15 6% .33 75% .25
Dec
13		 St. Thomas F C- D+ F D- 40% 32% 28% F F+ C D+ C- F C- F D- D- C+ A+ F D+ 57% 10% 33% D- D+ F A C- D+ F A+ C-
0.88 58% 33% 23% -6 -1 0.87 29% 1.1 .32 24% .26 62% .16 1.20 62% 20% 47% +7 +3 1.22 30% 0.7 .21 13% .42 54% .22
Dec
21		 UAB F F A F D+ 18% 55% 27% F F D- F F D- F+ F F C C+ A+ D+ C 62% 15% 23% F D+ C A+ A- F+ C+ B B-
0.73 44% 44% 23% -3 -6 0.84 19% 0.0 .00 20% .18 67% .12 1.12 56% 25% 33% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 8% .30 67% .20
Dec
31		 High Point D A+ F F D 32% 38% 30% F F+ F+ A+ C A+ A+ F B F F A F F 40% 19% 42% B F A+ F D- B+ F C+ F
1.03 81% 26% 20% -3 -3 0.90 24% 1.5 .36 12% .41 63% .25 1.30 82% 25% 50% +17 0 1.37 19% 2.3 .43 16% .47 73% .34
Jan
3		 Charleston Southern B- F C F F 42% 32% 26% D+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ A+ F+ F F F+ F 53% 9% 38% F F F D- F B+ F A+ F
1.15 33% 38% 23% -15 -1 0.70 44% 1.3 .58 11% .61 69% .42 1.19 72% 50% 39% +11 +3 1.30 42% 1.0 .42 22% .52 52% .27
Jan
7		 Longwood C C D A+ B- 35% 26% 39% F+ C A+ F D+ B+ B F C- B- C- A+ B- B- 42% 17% 42% D- C+ A- B+ A- F D- A+ C
1.13 63% 33% 44% +7 -1 1.13 44% 0.5 .22 16% .39 62% .24 0.96 60% 13% 30% -6 +1 0.92 26% 0.8 .20 16% .37 65% .24
Jan
10		 Radford A- A+ C+ A+ A+ 29% 29% 41% F A+ D F F C+ A+ F B+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% F A A A A F F C F
1.24 80% 40% 52% +18 -2 1.35 28% 0.7 .19 18% .48 62% .30 0.98 67% 25% 13% -12 +2 0.83 21% 0.8 .17 10% .48 72% .35
Jan
14		 Presbyterian C- F F A+ F+ 34% 40% 26% F F C+ D C- C A+ A+ A+ C- A- F F F 53% 28% 19% D+ F B B B+ C F A+ D
1.07 44% 21% 50% -6 -3 0.85 32% 0.9 .29 15% .43 83% .36 1.08 48% 58% 63% +8 0 1.19 29% 0.9 .25 20% .51 52% .27
Jan
17		 Winthrop F F A F F 23% 35% 42% F F C F D- B A D+ A- B+ A+ F D+ A+ 43% 2% 54% F A- C A B+ A+ F D- F
0.96 42% 50% 18% -10 -3 0.77 30% 0.8 .23 14% .42 72% .30 0.98 25% 100% 36% -11 +3 0.85 32% 0.8 .27 21% .54 80% .44
Jan
21		 South Carolina Upstate A C F+ A+ A 45% 29% 27% D A- D D+ D B A- B+ A C B+ F D D- 52% 12% 37% F F+ C+ A+ A+ F B- A+ A-
1.24 59% 29% 62% +9 -1 1.18 28% 1.0 .28 13% .38 77% .29 1.03 48% 83% 37% +2 +2 1.10 27% 0.4 .11 12% .26 53% .14
Jan
29		 Gardner-Webb D A- F A+ C+ 26% 24% 50% F+ C- C+ F D- C- A+ F B+ B B F A+ B+ 53% 6% 40% F B- C D+ C- C+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 73% 10% 48% +7 -1 1.14 37% 0.8 .29 15% .41 62% .26 0.84 48% 67% 21% -11 +3 0.85 24% 1.0 .24 22% .15 57% .09
Jan
31		 Winthrop C+ B- A+ F C+ 28% 32% 40% F C- D+ F F A A A+ A+ F A- F F F 33% 4% 62% D F D- D+ D- B+ F F F
1.09 62% 53% 26% +1 -2 1.00 27% 0.7 .18 12% .42 83% .35 1.30 47% 50% 43% +5 +2 1.16 38% 1.1 .41 19% .53 89% .47
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 South Carolina Upstate C A+ C B+ A 32% 23% 45% D- A- D- B- D D B- F C- C D- B+ B+ C- 40% 24% 36% C C- C+ A+ A+ F+ C B+ C+
1.13 80% 36% 38% +9 -1 1.19 25% 1.1 .29 18% .34 63% .22 0.99 64% 31% 30% -2 0 0.98 26% 0.3 .08 13% .29 65% .19



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 3.1 20.9 19.0 2.6 45.5 3rd
4th 2.2 18.0 12.2 0.2 32.5 4th
5th 0.5 7.2 7.4 0.2 15.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.4 0.3 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.2 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.3 3.0 12.8 28.8 33.2 19.2 2.6 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.0%
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 2.6% 14.8% 14.8% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 2.3
10-6 19.2% 8.4% 8.4% 15.1 0.1 1.3 0.2 17.6
9-7 33.2% 6.8% 6.8% 15.8 0.4 1.9 31.0
8-8 28.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.6 27.2
7-9 12.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.5 12.3
6-10 3.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 2.9
5-11 0.3% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 15.6 93.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 13.9 15.4 76.9 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%