Western Carolina
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.7 264
Expected Predictive Rating -7.3 283
Pace 71.4 105
Improvement +3.8 46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 174 D+ C C- D+ C
Defense D 319 D C+ D+ D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 146 D+ 54% 285 -1.1 228
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 190 C 38% 182 -0.3 193
Three Pointers 40% 198 C- 33% 225 -1.0 219
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 173 D+ -2.4 262
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 247
Second Chance B- 34.1% 79 D+ 0.95 287 C 0.32 145
Turnovers C- 17.4% 213
Freethrows C- 0.29 246 D 68% 301 D+ 0.20 275
Total Offense C -0.5 174

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 250 C- 59% 224 +0.7 143
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 200 D 42% 316 -0.6 231
Three Pointers 44% 90 F+ 39% 350 -4.7 347
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 173 D- -2.4 262
1st FG Attempt 1.11 321 D -4.6 320
Second Chance C+ 28.8% 103 C 1.04 196 C+ 0.30 138
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 270
Freethrows D+ 0.33 270 D- 76% 348 D 0.25 301
Total Defense D -5.2 319

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 185 16.6 56
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 263 0.19 234
Improvement +4.0 #21 -0.2 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 1% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 25% 45% 10%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four2% 3% 2%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Away) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 5
Quad 32 - 43 - 10
Quad 47 - 911 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 45 @Cincinnati L 63 - 94 4% -20  0% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F+ -8 C- C- F D+ -4 F B- B
 Sat, Nov 8 3 @Duke L 54 - 95 1% -23  4% 0 - 2 F+ -14 F -12 F C- B C+ +1 A- C+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 331 Stetson W 76 - 65 78% +8  84% 1 - 2 C- -3 F -10 B F F B+ +7 A C- F
 Wed, Nov 19 208 UNC Asheville W 80 - 73 50% +1  58% 2 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 D+ B A- D -7 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 22 188 @Lipscomb L 62 - 83 25% -12  17% 2 - 3 F -20 F -16 F D+ F C- -2 D D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 89 @High Point L 73 - 93 9% -7  36% 2 - 4 D -11 D -5 A- F D- D+ -5 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 303 @South Carolina Upstate L 67 - 78 48% -4  4% 2 - 5 F+ -16 F -11 F D B- D+ -5 C- C- C
 Thu, Dec 11 56 @Virginia Tech L 74 - 96 5% -15  0% 2 - 6 D -9 C+ +3 B- C C- F+ -11 F D C
 Thu, Dec 18 36 @Georgia L 82 - 112 3% -16  0% 2 - 7 D- -13 C+ +3 A+ C+ C F -12 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 31 212 Wofford L 74 - 79 51% -3  20% 2 - 8 0 - 1 D -11 F+ -8 F D+ F+ C- -3 D- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 177 @Furman W 80 - 77 OT 23% +3  65% 3 - 8 1 - 1 B- +5 B- +5 C A D C -0 C- B+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 195 @Samford L 77 - 82 27% +6  88% 3 - 9 1 - 2 C- -4 C+ +3 F A+ D+ D- -8 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 10 346 @The Citadel L 77 - 79 OT 64% +2  60% 3 - 10 1 - 3 D- -11 D+ -3 F F+ B+ D- -8 C- F D-
 Wed, Jan 14 129 East Tennessee St. W 72 - 68 32% -0  38% 4 - 10 2 - 3 C+ +3 B- +4 B B- D- C -0 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 283 Chattanooga L 82 - 90 66% +3  59% 4 - 11 2 - 4 F -18 B+ +8 B D A F -27 F F+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 173 @Mercer L 76 - 88 22% -14  0% 4 - 12 2 - 5 D -10 C +1 D- A- F F+ -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 360 VMI W 88 - 58 88% +12  84% 5 - 12 3 - 5 B+ +11 A+ +20 C+ A+ A+ C- -2 D+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 29 129 @East Tennessee St. W 90 - 88 16% +9  100% 6 - 12 4 - 5 B- +7 A+ +19 B+ A+ A- F -12 D- C+ F
 Sun, Feb 1 195 Samford L 74 - 88 48% -8  8% 6 - 13 4 - 6 F -19 F+ -8 F F+ A- F+ -10 F D B+
 Wed, Feb 4 300 @UNC Greensboro L 78 - 81 48% -0  46% 6 - 14 4 - 7 D -8 C +1 C- D+ D+ F+ -9 D F+ B
 Sat, Feb 7 212 @Wofford L 66 - 77 29% -5  18% 6 - 15 4 - 8 D -11 F -10 F B- C- C -1 F A A-
 Wed, Feb 11 346 The Citadel W 87 - 49 82% +26  97% 7 - 15 5 - 8 A +23 A+ +14 B A+ B- A+ +13 A+ B C+
 Sat, Feb 14 283 @Chattanooga L 75 - 77 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 300 UNC Greensboro W 82 - 77 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 360 @VMI W 83 - 76 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 173 Mercer L 81 - 83 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 177 Furman L 74 - 76 43%
Totals 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6 F -1 D+ D+ C D -5 C- D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C C- D+ 40% 20% 40% C D+ B- D+ C C- C- D D+ D C- D F+ D- 36% 20% 44% C D C+ C C+ D+ D+ D- D
1.08 54% 38% 33% -2 0 0.97 34% 1.0 .32 17% .29 68% .20 1.16 59% 42% 39% +5 0 1.11 29% 1.0 .30 15% .33 76% .22
Nov
3		 Cincinnati F+ F+ F B- C- 30% 26% 43% D+ C- A F C- F C- F D D+ F F D F 35% 19% 46% C F A+ F B- B F C+ F
0.79 44% 29% 35% -6 -1 0.87 33% 0.7 .23 28% .24 57% .14 1.18 78% 60% 38% +14 0 1.29 23% 1.3 .30 19% .46 67% .31
Nov
8		 Duke F D- F+ F F 34% 31% 36% C- F B+ F C- B D+ F D- C+ C F A- A 42% 6% 53% C A- A F C+ D- F D+ F
0.71 45% 28% 19% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10 1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38
Nov
16		 Stetson F C- A A+ B 40% 8% 52% B+ B F F+ F F F C F+ B+ A+ D A A 31% 29% 40% B+ A C+ D C- F C C+ C
1.04 60% 50% 42% +8 +2 1.22 23% 1.0 .23 25% .20 73% .15 0.89 39% 41% 26% -10 -2 0.79 24% 1.1 .27 14% .30 68% .21
Nov
19		 UNC Asheville B+ C B F D+ 49% 24% 27% C- D+ A+ F B A- A+ A+ A+ D F D F F 15% 43% 43% A F B A+ A+ C- F A+ C+
1.24 59% 45% 25% -1 0 1.00 49% 0.7 .36 12% .51 79% .41 1.13 71% 45% 50% +15 -5 1.23 25% 0.6 .16 17% .43 52% .22
Nov
22		 Lipscomb F A+ A+ F F 25% 22% 53% C- F F A+ D+ F C- F D- C- D A+ D- D- 35% 10% 55% C D C D- D+ D+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 77% 55% 15% -7 -1 0.86 15% 1.8 .26 24% .27 60% .16 1.11 64% 17% 38% +3 +1 1.11 25% 1.2 .30 15% .09 50% .05
Nov
29		 High Point D A+ A+ C+ A+ 31% 24% 45% D- A- D+ F F D- C+ F D+ D+ F F F F 34% 21% 45% A F B- A+ A+ A C B C+
0.98 75% 58% 35% +11 -1 1.22 30% 0.1 .03 26% .33 61% .20 1.25 72% 64% 46% +18 0 1.38 29% 0.6 .18 19% .35 71% .25
Dec
6		 South Carolina Upstate F F F F F 46% 20% 34% C F F A D B- A+ A+ A+ D+ F C B D 24% 24% 51% A- C- A- F C- C F F F
0.93 43% 10% 24% -18 +1 0.68 21% 1.3 .29 14% .45 82% .37 1.09 73% 36% 30% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.3 .28 18% .51 80% .41
Dec
11		 Virginia Tech C+ F B+ A B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A- F C C- A+ F A+ F+ C- D+ F F 35% 18% 47% C- F D D+ D C D A C
1.02 45% 45% 39% -1 0 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 19% .51 60% .31 1.32 63% 40% 50% +14 0 1.29 37% 1.2 .43 15% .37 65% .24
Dec
18		 Georgia C+ A- A A- A+ 38% 26% 36% D+ A+ F A+ C+ C C+ F C- F C- F F F 49% 16% 35% C- F A- B- A- C- F D+ F
1.02 64% 47% 38% +7 -1 1.14 18% 1.8 .32 20% .26 59% .15 1.39 64% 63% 56% +18 +1 1.41 31% 1.0 .31 14% .58 78% .45
Dec
31		 Wofford F+ D F F F 61% 4% 35% A+ F A+ F D+ F+ A+ F A+ C- A F F+ F+ 32% 12% 56% C+ D- B+ F+ C B- F+ B- D
1.04 52% 0% 22% -12 +4 0.86 43% 0.7 .30 20% .51 69% .35 1.11 44% 67% 39% +3 +1 1.10 24% 1.1 .26 17% .39 70% .27
Jan
3		 Furman B- F D- A+ C+ 40% 33% 27% D C A C+ A D B- F C- C F A- C- D 27% 25% 48% A+ C- B B+ B+ F C A+ A-
1.12 41% 33% 53% 0 -1 0.98 41% 1.1 .44 17% .27 63% .17 1.08 80% 36% 33% +5 -1 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .28 47% .13
Jan
7		 Samford C+ F F A- F 52% 28% 20% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D- B+ F+ F D- 37% 21% 42% C D- C- D D+ D- C+ F F
1.14 46% 21% 40% -9 0 0.84 41% 1.5 .59 15% .44 88% .38 1.22 53% 45% 41% +4 0 1.10 26% 1.1 .29 10% .35 90% .31
Jan
10		 The Citadel D+ C D- D- F 35% 15% 50% C- F D F F+ B+ D+ F D D- C+ D+ C+ C- 35% 20% 45% C+ C- F F F D- F F F
1.10 62% 33% 30% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 11% .26 63% .16 1.13 53% 40% 32% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 16% .47 82% .39
Jan
14		 East Tennessee St. B- C A+ B- B 36% 17% 47% C- B A D B- D- D C+ D C C A C C+ 44% 14% 42% D C D+ A+ A+ F F B- D-
1.15 59% 63% 36% +6 0 1.15 39% 0.8 .32 22% .25 75% .18 1.08 59% 29% 33% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.5 .13 8% .40 74% .29
Jan
17		 Chattanooga B+ F A+ A+ B+ 40% 23% 37% C- B B+ F D A C F D F D A+ F F 32% 8% 60% F+ F C- F F+ F D F F
1.26 43% 67% 42% +5 0 1.12 39% 0.8 .32 9% .36 62% .22 1.38 63% 25% 50% +15 +1 1.34 21% 1.4 .29 11% .33 95% .31
Jan
21		 Mercer C D C D F+ 42% 10% 48% B+ D- A C+ A- F B- C C+ F+ D+ F A+ B- 44% 11% 44% F C+ F C F F F B F
1.09 50% 40% 32% -5 +2 0.96 41% 1.0 .41 23% .28 73% .20 1.26 63% 67% 21% -4 +2 0.98 47% 1.0 .47 10% .45 71% .32
Jan
24		 VMI A+ D+ A- A C 41% 11% 48% B+ C+ A+ B- A+ A+ F F F C- D- A+ D+ D 27% 14% 59% C+ D+ A+ F C+ D- A+ F A+
1.51 59% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 57% 1.1 .63 7% .06 33% .02 1.00 62% 0% 34% -4 0 0.94 16% 1.4 .22 14% .12 83% .10
Jan
29		 East Tennessee St. A+ A+ F B A- 33% 15% 52% C- B+ B+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ F C- F D+ F+ 40% 20% 40% C+ D- C+ C+ C+ F F D F
1.31 87% 14% 38% +9 0 1.20 35% 1.3 .45 16% .49 75% .37 1.29 60% 60% 35% +6 0 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 9% .56 80% .45
Feb
1		 Samford F+ D- D- F F 35% 26% 39% C+ F D F F+ A- A- C A- F+ F A+ F F 36% 11% 52% F+ F F+ C+ D B+ F F+ F
1.02 50% 33% 27% -8 -1 0.84 23% 0.8 .18 10% .37 75% .28 1.21 75% 20% 39% +8 +1 1.20 30% 1.0 .30 17% .68 73% .50
Feb
4		 UNC Greensboro C F A+ B- C 28% 26% 45% D- C- B+ F D+ D+ A+ D A- F+ A+ F+ F D 40% 19% 40% D- D F B F+ B F F F
1.17 40% 64% 38% +4 -1 1.08 37% 0.8 .29 15% .37 67% .25 1.21 37% 44% 47% +1 0 1.04 39% 0.9 .36 18% .49 89% .44
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wofford F F F F F 51% 7% 42% A- F C+ B- B- C- F F F C F D- C F 49% 17% 34% D+ F A+ C- A A- A+ F B
0.96 43% 25% 26% -14 +3 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .17 60% .10 1.12 69% 44% 33% +6 +1 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 19% .22 92% .20
Feb
11		 The Citadel A+ C F A+ B- 53% 4% 43% A B B+ A+ A+ B- F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 36% 16% 49% D+ A+ A- C+ B C+ C F F
1.39 63% 0% 45% +9 +3 1.25 40% 1.6 .63 13% .20 55% .11 0.78 44% 14% 23% -17 0 0.69 21% 0.9 .18 19% .28 93% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 2.8 4.4 4th
5th 1.0 7.7 1.2 9.9 5th
6th 1.2 16.9 10.2 0.2 28.5 6th
7th 0.3 13.4 14.0 0.8 28.5 7th
8th 0.0 5.7 12.0 1.1 0.0 18.7 8th
9th 2.2 5.8 1.1 9.1 9th
10th 10th
Total 2.2 11.7 27.7 33.0 20.3 5.1 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 5.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.6 0.1 0.2 4.8
9-9 20.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 19.4
8-10 33.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.9 32.1
7-11 27.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.4 27.3
6-12 11.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.6
5-13 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 16.0 97.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 15.6 41.0 59.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.3%
Lose Out 0.9%