Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.1#347
Expected Predictive Rating-11.6#322
Pace68.4#213
Improvement+0.3#168

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#335
First Shot-4.9#310
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#274
Layup/Dunks-4.8#325
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#97
Freethrows-2.2#306
Improvement+0.2#170

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#345
First Shot-5.7#345
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#197
Layups/Dunks-1.4#226
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#360
Freethrows+2.1#63
Improvement+0.2#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 2.2% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 6.9% 15.2% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 41.1% 24.4% 41.3%
First Four0.3% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 116 @Rhode Island L 62-93 5%     0 - 1 -24.7 -10.6 -12.5
  Mon, Nov 10 32 @Miami (FL) L 61-102 1%     0 - 2 -24.6 -9.5 -10.5
  Sun, Nov 16 289 @Western Carolina L 65-76 23%     0 - 3 -15.2 -11.4 -3.3
  Wed, Nov 19 313 Howard W 64-60 48%     1 - 3 -7.5 -12.1 +4.7
  Sat, Nov 22 341 VMI W 99-80 59%     2 - 3 +4.7 +24.3 -18.6
  Tue, Nov 25 159 Wright St. L 62-79 20%     2 - 4 -20.4 -6.3 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 29 320 Southern Utah L 68-70 38%     2 - 5 -11.0 -7.5 -3.5
  Sun, Nov 30 186 @Robert Morris L 62-80 11%     2 - 6 -16.7 -0.8 -18.5
  Tue, Dec 2 99 @Grand Canyon L 45-67 4%     2 - 7 -13.8 -19.2 +4.2
  Sat, Dec 6 87 @South Carolina L 51-82 4%     2 - 8 -21.9 -12.5 -12.6
  Mon, Dec 22 53 @Oklahoma L 64-89 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 200 @North Alabama L 65-78 12%    
  Sat, Jan 3 279 @Central Arkansas L 67-76 20%    
  Thu, Jan 8 161 Lipscomb L 69-78 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 180 Austin Peay L 67-75 25%    
  Thu, Jan 15 318 West Georgia L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 196 Queens L 74-81 27%    
  Thu, Jan 22 161 @Lipscomb L 66-81 9%    
  Sat, Jan 24 180 @Austin Peay L 64-78 11%    
  Thu, Jan 29 344 @North Florida L 78-81 37%    
  Sat, Jan 31 200 North Alabama L 68-75 28%    
  Thu, Feb 5 292 @Bellarmine L 71-79 24%    
  Sat, Feb 7 269 @Eastern Kentucky L 72-81 20%    
  Thu, Feb 12 291 Jacksonville L 69-71 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 174 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-83 11%    
  Thu, Feb 19 279 Central Arkansas L 70-73 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 344 North Florida W 81-78 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 291 @Jacksonville L 66-74 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 174 Florida Gulf Coast L 72-80 24%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 3.2 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 4.1 1.9 0.1 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.2 5.0 3.4 0.5 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.9 4.8 0.8 0.0 16.4 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 5.5 8.7 5.7 1.3 0.1 22.9 11th
12th 1.3 4.7 8.6 8.5 4.3 1.1 0.1 28.6 12th
Total 1.3 4.8 10.1 14.5 16.6 16.0 13.3 10.1 6.4 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 37.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 6.3% 6.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.4% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 0.9% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
10-8 1.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-9 3.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.5
8-10 6.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.4
7-11 10.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.0
6-12 13.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.2
5-13 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.5
3-15 14.5% 14.5
2-16 10.1% 10.1
1-17 4.8% 4.8
0-18 1.3% 1.3
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%