Southern Utah
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#320
Expected Predictive Rating-12.4#330
Pace73.1#96
Improvement+1.5#78

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#322
First Shot-4.3#290
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#268
Layup/Dunks+6.7#21
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#195
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#349
Freethrows-3.6#339
Improvement-1.0#256

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#279
First Shot-5.9#350
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#44
Layups/Dunks-5.1#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#200
Freethrows+2.8#38
Improvement+2.5#21
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 16.0 15.9
.500 or above 0.3% 1.8% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 5.9% 14.1% 5.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 62.1% 45.9% 62.4%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 1.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 112 - 17
Quad 44 - 66 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 66 @Arizona St. L 64-81 4%     0 - 1 -5.5 -7.0 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 8 209 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-95 39%     0 - 2 -29.2 -7.2 -21.0
  Sat, Nov 15 233 @Nebraska Omaha L 85-90 23%     0 - 3 -6.2 +4.9 -10.7
  Mon, Nov 17 4 @Gonzaga L 50-122 1%     0 - 4 -47.4 -18.1 -18.9
  Wed, Nov 19 151 @Washington St. L 74-98 13%     0 - 5 -20.8 -1.4 -18.7
  Fri, Nov 28 186 @Robert Morris L 54-61 17%     0 - 6 -5.7 -13.4 +7.1
  Sat, Nov 29 347 Stetson W 70-68 62%     1 - 6 -10.1 -8.0 -2.0
  Sat, Dec 6 165 @Oregon St. L 70-81 14%     1 - 7 -8.6 -2.6 -6.0
  Sat, Dec 13 49 @Washington L 64-87 2%    
  Thu, Dec 18 251 @Northern Arizona L 70-77 26%    
  Mon, Dec 29 257 @Utah Tech L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Jan 3 191 Texas Arlington L 70-74 35%    
  Thu, Jan 8 83 @Utah Valley L 64-83 4%    
  Sat, Jan 10 131 @California Baptist L 64-78 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 201 Tarleton St. L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 215 Abilene Christian L 68-70 42%    
  Wed, Jan 21 83 Utah Valley L 67-80 13%    
  Sat, Jan 24 257 @Utah Tech L 69-76 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 191 @Texas Arlington L 67-77 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 215 @Abilene Christian L 65-73 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 201 Tarleton St. L 73-76 38%    
  Thu, Feb 12 131 California Baptist L 67-75 23%    
  Sat, Feb 14 191 @Texas Arlington L 67-77 19%    
  Thu, Feb 19 201 @Tarleton St. L 70-79 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 215 @Abilene Christian L 65-73 23%    
  Sat, Feb 28 257 Utah Tech L 72-73 48%    
  Thu, Mar 5 83 Utah Valley L 67-80 13%    
  Sat, Mar 7 131 California Baptist L 67-75 24%    
Projected Record 6 - 22 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 13.4 5th
6th 0.3 2.3 6.2 8.5 5.4 1.5 0.1 0.0 24.5 6th
7th 2.4 7.4 12.2 13.4 9.9 4.3 0.7 0.0 50.5 7th
Total 2.4 7.4 12.6 15.7 16.4 14.7 11.4 8.2 5.3 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 70.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 44.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 16.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 4.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.1% 7.0% 7.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-7 0.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
10-8 1.6% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.5
9-9 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.1 3.0
8-10 5.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.2
7-11 8.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
6-12 11.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-13 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.7
4-14 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-15 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
2-16 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.6
1-17 7.4% 7.4
0-18 2.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.4
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%