Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.4 91
Expected Predictive Rating +4.7 95
Pace 71.4 111
Improvement -1.2 242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ #121 B- B+ F+ C- A-
Defense B- #74 B- C B+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 3 61% 98 +8.3 7
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 318 35% 263 -3.0 317
Three Pointers 36% 275 34% 154 -2.0 257
1st FG Attempt 1.08 86 +3.3 84
Second Chance 36.6% 34 1.13 56 0.41 28
Turnovers 20.5% 344
Freethrows 0.30 213 69% 278 0.21 239
Total Offense +1.8 121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 124 53% 63 +0.6 148
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 129 39% 213 -0.6 239
Three Pointers 38% 277 33% 148 +2.1 95
1st FG Attempt 0.98 107 +2.1 108
Second Chance 30.0% 157 1.04 200 0.31 183
Turnovers 20.5% 27
Freethrows 0.34 283 74% 257 0.25 287
Total Defense +3.6 74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.7 15 +0.0 169
Shot Type Accuracy +1.5 120 -2.1 94
Possession Length 16.6 105 17.1 161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 89 0.16 125
Improvement -0.6 #224 -0.6 #225

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54% 55% 49%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.4 12.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 76% 84% 58%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round54% 55% 49%
Second Round6% 6% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Away) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 312 - 312 - 6
Quad 410 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 58 @Boise St. L 77 - 101 25% -12  0% 0 - 1 D- -12 C+ +2 C A F F -12 F+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 140 @Fresno St. L 74 - 75 55% +4  87% 0 - 2 C+ +3 C+ +2 A- B- D+ C+ +1 F B- A
 Wed, Nov 19 119 UC Irvine W 79 - 72 70% +6  93% 1 - 2 B- +7 B+ +8 A A B C -1 A D D+
 Tue, Nov 25 193 South Dakota St. W 75 - 52 77% +10  98% 2 - 2 A +21 C- -2 C- A+ F A+ +22 A+ B A+
 Wed, Nov 26 194 Samford W 89 - 45 77% +23  89% 3 - 2 A+ +42 B +6 A- B+ F A+ +33 A+ B A+
 Wed, Dec 3 43 @San Diego St. L 66 - 77 18% -6  11% 3 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 B B+ F B- +3 B+ D- B-
 Sat, Dec 6 158 @Bowling Green W 82 - 71 60% +10  90% 4 - 3 B+ +14 B+ +8 A+ C F B +5 A- F+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 250 Idaho St. W 73 - 69 89% -1  56% 5 - 3 C- -4 D- -7 C C- F B- +4 C+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 133 UC Santa Barbara W 68 - 53 64% +12  95% 6 - 3 A- +17 D- -7 D- C F A+ +25 A+ C+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 232 Weber St. W 90 - 74 87% +9  97% 7 - 3 B +9 A+ +15 A+ A+ D- D+ -5 B+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 29 138 California Baptist W 73 - 66 76% +0  37% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B- +5 C- -1 A F A- B+ +6 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 1 214 @Tarleton St. W 91 - 85 70% +2  66% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B- +6 A- +11 B C+ C+ D+ -5 B- C F
 Sat, Jan 3 260 @Abilene Christian L 68 - 85 78% -5  21% 9 - 4 2 - 1 F -20 D -6 C+ B F F -14 F C+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 284 Southern Utah W 89 - 72 92% +10  98% 10 - 4 3 - 1 B- +7 B +6 B+ A- F C -0 C C- C
 Sat, Jan 10 203 Utah Tech W 92 - 76 85% +7  77% 11 - 4 4 - 1 B +10 B +6 C+ A D B- +3 B- F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 169 Texas Arlington W 86 - 74 80% +14  99% 12 - 4 5 - 1 B +8 A +12 B A+ C+ D+ -4 B+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 284 @Southern Utah L 70 - 84 81% -4  15% 12 - 5 5 - 2 F -18 D- -7 F B- C F+ -11 F F A-
 Sat, Jan 24 138 @California Baptist L 71 - 78 OT 55% -0  37% 12 - 6 5 - 3 C- -3 D -5 D- D+ D- B- +3 D- B+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 214 @Tarleton St. W 83 - 55 70% +4  51% 13 - 6 6 - 3 A+ +28 B+ +8 B A+ F A+ +19 A+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 260 Abilene Christian W 68 - 55 90% +7  71% 14 - 6 7 - 3 C+ +4 F+ -8 D- A F A +13 D A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 7 169 Texas Arlington W 81 - 60 80% +9  80% 15 - 6 8 - 3 A- +17 A+ +22 A+ A+ C C -0 F A A
 Thu, Feb 12 203 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 138 California Baptist W 74 - 67 75%
 Sat, Feb 21 169 @Texas Arlington W 72 - 69 61%
 Thu, Feb 26 214 Tarleton St. W 80 - 69 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 260 Abilene Christian W 78 - 64 90%
 Thu, Mar 5 284 @Southern Utah W 81 - 72 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 203 @Utah Tech W 77 - 72 69%
Totals 20 - 8 13 - 5 +5 C+ +2 B- B+ F+ B- +4 B- C B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- D+ C+ C+ 50% 14% 36% A- B- B+ B B+ F+ C- D+ C- B- B C C+ B- 41% 22% 38% C B- C C C B+ D+ C- D+
1.11 61% 35% 34% +1 +2 1.08 37% 1.1 .41 20% .30 69% .21 1.03 53% 39% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .31 20% .34 74% .22
Nov
8		 Boise St. C+ A B+ F C- 45% 22% 33% B+ C C+ A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F F A- D- F+ 51% 14% 35% D F+ D+ F F D- F D+ F
1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32 1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41
Nov
15		 Fresno St. C+ C- D+ A B+ 50% 14% 36% A- A- D- A+ B- D+ A+ F A C+ D F F F 45% 18% 36% C- F A+ F B- A F A F+
1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27 1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28
Nov
19		 UC Irvine B+ A- F C B+ 71% 10% 18% A+ A B A A B A+ F C C B C+ A+ A 34% 32% 34% B+ A C+ F D D+ D F F+
1.12 60% 20% 33% -1 +4 1.08 38% 1.1 .41 16% .42 44% .19 1.02 50% 35% 22% -10 -2 0.79 29% 1.3 .39 16% .35 76% .27
Nov
25		 South Dakota St. C- D+ F B D+ 48% 14% 38% B+ C- A A- A+ F F A F+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 16% 50% C A+ D- A+ B A+ D- D- F+
1.07 54% 29% 37% -1 +2 1.02 39% 1.2 .48 23% .20 82% .17 0.74 40% 71% 18% -13 0 0.77 34% 0.7 .24 30% .33 75% .25
Nov
26		 Samford B B D+ A B 64% 14% 21% A+ A- B B B+ F D B+ D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 34% 21% 45% C A+ F+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+
1.21 64% 38% 42% +6 +3 1.20 32% 1.2 .39 18% .25 80% .20 0.61 22% 27% 25% -20 0 0.60 30% 0.6 .18 22% .21 42% .09
Dec
3		 San Diego St. C A- F B+ B 31% 16% 53% B- B B B+ B+ F C F+ D+ B- C- A- C- B+ 35% 35% 29% B+ B+ D D+ D- B- F D F
0.94 64% 0% 38% -1 0 1.00 32% 1.0 .32 27% .29 67% .20 1.10 65% 29% 36% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 19% .49 79% .38
Dec
6		 Bowling Green B+ A+ A+ B A+ 52% 8% 40% A A+ B+ F+ C F D D- D- B F A- A+ A- 43% 19% 39% B A- D+ F F+ C+ D A C
1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18 0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22
Dec
10		 Idaho St. D- A+ C- F C- 44% 16% 40% B- C A F C- F C+ B+ B- B- A F D- B- 45% 10% 45% D- C+ A+ A A+ B- C B- C+
1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27 1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22
Dec
13		 UC Santa Barbara D- F A+ C- F 45% 11% 45% A- D- A- F C F C- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 57% 22% 22% D A+ B- C- C+ A+ B- F C-
1.01 43% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.8 .30 22% .34 78% .27 0.78 35% 30% 20% -19 +1 0.65 31% 1.0 .31 28% .29 86% .25
Dec
17		 Weber St. A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 9% 45% B+ A+ A+ A A+ D- C B C+ D+ B- A+ C+ A- 60% 16% 24% D B+ F C F D- D+ B C-
1.37 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 50% 1.4 .69 20% .32 76% .25 1.13 53% 13% 33% -7 +2 0.92 42% 1.0 .42 14% .37 67% .25
Dec
29		 California Baptist C- A C+ D+ A 57% 19% 24% A- A F F F A- C F F B+ F F B F 53% 23% 25% C F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.04 68% 40% 31% +5 +2 1.15 9% 0.7 .06 11% .32 45% .14 0.94 67% 67% 30% +10 +1 1.23 28% 0.0 .00 33% .42 85% .36
Jan
1		 Tarleton St. A- B F+ B C+ 59% 7% 35% A+ B B+ D+ C+ C+ A+ B- A+ D+ A- F B+ B 47% 22% 31% D- B- B+ F C F F F F
1.20 67% 33% 38% +7 +3 1.22 38% 1.0 .38 22% .61 75% .46 1.12 46% 50% 29% -5 0 0.93 26% 1.3 .33 12% .48 88% .42
Jan
3		 Abilene Christian D C D+ B C 49% 7% 44% B+ C+ C+ A- B F F C+ F F C- F F F 51% 29% 20% C- F B- C C+ F A+ F B-
0.98 60% 33% 39% +4 +2 1.15 31% 1.3 .38 32% .34 75% .25 1.23 57% 56% 45% +8 0 1.18 30% 0.9 .27 14% .22 92% .20
Jan
8		 Southern Utah B A- F A+ B+ 52% 19% 30% B B+ A+ C- A- F B- F C C A+ A+ F C 40% 19% 42% C- C B- F C- C F A+ C-
1.22 68% 30% 44% +8 +1 1.20 46% 0.9 .43 21% .28 63% .17 0.99 43% 20% 45% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.2 .31 19% .32 58% .19
Jan
10		 Utah Tech B C- A+ D- C 54% 13% 33% B C+ C- A+ A D A+ A+ A+ B- B+ D+ D+ B 49% 21% 30% C- B- C F F A+ F F F
1.20 59% 57% 28% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.5 .47 18% .43 89% .38 0.99 52% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.2 .35 25% .35 90% .31
Jan
17		 Texas Arlington A B B- C- B 44% 30% 26% C B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- D+ C+ A A+ B+ 41% 22% 37% B- B+ F+ F F B- F D F
1.24 64% 40% 31% +2 -1 1.04 45% 1.6 .73 16% .48 61% .29 1.07 53% 30% 24% -10 0 0.83 42% 1.4 .58 22% .48 77% .37
Jan
21		 Southern Utah D- F+ F F F 48% 13% 39% A- F B C B- C A- F B- F+ C B+ F F 36% 23% 40% B- F F D F A- F F F
0.99 48% 14% 23% -14 +2 0.77 37% 0.9 .35 14% .33 60% .20 1.19 59% 27% 53% +9 -1 1.19 39% 1.1 .43 24% .35 84% .30
Jan
24		 California Baptist D D+ A F F 58% 11% 30% A+ D- B F D+ D- A+ D+ A+ B- C+ A- F D- 50% 22% 28% C D- A C B+ A F C+ F
0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +3 0.83 30% 0.7 .21 18% .52 72% .37 1.03 52% 30% 46% +1 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 22% .53 71% .37
Jan
29		 Tarleton St. B+ C D+ A+ B 51% 18% 31% B- B A A+ A+ F F+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 37% 30% 33% B A+ C B+ B- A+ F A F
1.15 61% 38% 50% +9 +1 1.22 43% 1.5 .65 28% .31 94% .29 0.76 25% 15% 36% -18 -1 0.63 32% 0.9 .29 26% .55 69% .38
Feb
5		 Abilene Christian F+ C+ F F F 62% 11% 28% A D- A- A- A F C- F F A A+ A+ F D- 34% 27% 39% B- D B- A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A
0.99 62% 20% 23% -4 +3 1.00 37% 1.3 .47 29% .43 52% .23 0.80 40% 25% 53% +1 -1 1.02 30% 0.5 .15 29% .31 47% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas Arlington A+ F A+ A+ A+ 37% 12% 51% A- A+ A+ B A+ C A- A+ A+ C C- F A+ F 55% 24% 21% C F C A+ A A F B+ F
1.38 47% 60% 52% +13 +1 1.29 42% 1.2 .50 17% .45 91% .41 1.02 56% 88% 14% +4 +1 1.12 36% 0.6 .23 25% .64 68% .43



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 5.9 22.2 31.0 16.6 76.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.2 9.4 6.1 0.6 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.8 3.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.9 16.0 28.3 31.6 16.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 16.6    16.6
14-4 98.0% 31.0    26.7 4.3
13-5 78.5% 22.2    12.9 8.9 0.4
12-6 36.7% 5.9    1.3 3.0 1.5 0.1
11-7 6.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.7% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 76.1% 76.1 57.5 16.4 2.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 16.6% 64.0% 63.9% 0.1% 11.9 1.9 7.6 1.1 0.0 6.0 0.2%
14-4 31.6% 55.7% 55.7% 12.5 0.4 9.3 7.4 0.5 0.0 14.0
13-5 28.3% 53.1% 53.1% 12.7 0.1 5.3 8.5 1.1 0.0 13.2
12-6 16.0% 47.4% 47.4% 13.0 0.0 1.6 4.7 1.2 0.0 8.4
11-7 5.9% 36.8% 36.8% 13.2 0.2 1.3 0.6 3.7
10-8 1.4% 33.1% 33.1% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9
9-9 0.2% 22.7% 22.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.5% 53.5% 0.0% 12.5 46.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.6% 100.0% 11.9 17.5 71.8 10.5 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.1% 0.3% 11.0 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.9%