Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.5 #87
Expected Predictive Rating +7.8 #79
Pace 70.9 #140
Improvement +1.9 #75

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #133 A- D+ B+ F A
Defense #49 B C B- A C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.30 #55 +10.8 #2
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #310 0.63 #312 -3.1 #326
Three Pointers 35% #295 1.09 #76 -1.5 #236
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #44 +6.1 #43
Freethrows 16.9 #203 67% #308 11.3 #255
Second Chance 34.1% #84 1.20 #39 0.41 #44
Turnovers 19.9% #324
Total Offense +1.2 #133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #102 1.09 #102 -0.2 #192
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #111 0.81 #266 -1.5 #277
Three Pointers 36% #305 0.82 #20 +6.0 #16
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #56 +4.3 #56
Freethrows 17.3 #191 73% #222 12.7 #204
Second Chance 29.5% #145 0.97 #96 0.29 #109
Turnovers 20.8% #20
Total Defense +5.3 #49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.5% #18 0% #154
Shot Type Make Effect 8% #71 -8.4% #52
Possession Length 16.5 #117 17.2 #198
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #73 0.14 #76
Improvement -1.6 #301 +3.5 #7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.0% 55.9% 47.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.8% 98.5%
Conference Champion 78.0% 85.8% 63.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round53.0% 55.9% 47.6%
Second Round9.0% 10.2% 6.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.0% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 312 - 6
Quad 411 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 51 @Boise St. L 77-101 25%     -11.6   0 - 1 -10.5 +8.4 -17.4
  Sat, Nov 15 181 @Fresno St. L 74-75 68%     4.4   0 - 2 +0.6 +2.3 -1.6
  Wed, Nov 19 136 UC Irvine W 79-72 77%     5.6   1 - 2 +5.7 +9.2 -3.6
  Tue, Nov 25 165 South Dakota St. W 75-52 75%     10.4   2 - 2 +22.3 +1.4 +20.9
  Wed, Nov 26 232 Samford W 89-45 84%     23.4   3 - 2 +40.0 +9.2 +28.8
  Wed, Dec 3 52 @San Diego St. L 66-77 26%     -5.9   3 - 3 +2.3 +0.2 +2.1
  Sat, Dec 6 126 @Bowling Green W 82-71 55%     10.0   4 - 3 +16.3 +11.7 +4.3
  Wed, Dec 10 169 Idaho St. W 73-69 83%     -1.3   5 - 3 +0.1 -1.5 +1.7
  Sat, Dec 13 148 UC Santa Barbara W 68-53 71%     12.3   6 - 3 +15.7 -4.8 +21.0
  Wed, Dec 17 228 Weber St. W 90-74 89%     9.0   7 - 3 +9.1 +18.7 -8.5
  Mon, Dec 29 134 California Baptist W 73-66 77%     0.2   8 - 3 1 - 0 +5.8 -0.4 +6.1
  Thu, Jan 1 164 @Tarleton St. W 75-71 65%    
  Sat, Jan 3 202 @Abilene Christian W 72-66 72%    
  Thu, Jan 8 328 Southern Utah W 83-63 97%    
  Sat, Jan 10 245 Utah Tech W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 17 179 Texas Arlington W 73-62 84%    
  Wed, Jan 21 328 @Southern Utah W 80-66 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 134 @California Baptist W 71-69 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 164 @Tarleton St. W 75-71 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 202 Abilene Christian W 75-63 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 179 Texas Arlington W 73-62 84%    
  Thu, Feb 12 245 @Utah Tech W 76-68 76%    
  Thu, Feb 19 134 California Baptist W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 179 @Texas Arlington W 70-65 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 164 Tarleton St. W 78-68 81%    
  Sat, Feb 28 202 Abilene Christian W 75-63 86%    
  Thu, Mar 5 328 @Southern Utah W 80-66 89%    
  Sat, Mar 7 245 @Utah Tech W 76-68 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 8.2 14.8 18.6 17.8 11.5 3.9 78.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.8 4.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 5.0 8.8 12.8 17.1 19.1 17.8 11.5 3.9 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.9    3.9
17-1 100.0% 11.5    11.5
16-2 99.9% 17.8    17.5 0.2
15-3 97.4% 18.6    17.2 1.4
14-4 86.5% 14.8    11.8 3.0 0.1
13-5 64.1% 8.2    4.7 3.0 0.5
12-6 31.8% 2.8    1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1
11-7 7.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 78.0% 78.0 67.6 9.0 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.9% 74.1% 73.8% 0.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.4 1.0 1.0%
17-1 11.5% 66.7% 66.7% 11.6 0.1 3.0 4.2 0.4 3.8
16-2 17.8% 62.8% 62.8% 12.1 0.0 1.5 7.4 2.1 0.0 6.6
15-3 19.1% 56.9% 56.9% 12.3 0.4 6.5 3.8 0.2 8.2
14-4 17.1% 49.5% 49.5% 12.6 0.1 3.8 4.1 0.5 8.6
13-5 12.8% 46.3% 46.3% 12.8 0.0 1.7 3.4 0.7 0.1 6.9
12-6 8.8% 39.3% 39.3% 13.0 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.8 0.0 5.3
11-7 5.0% 31.5% 31.5% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 3.4
10-8 2.3% 27.4% 27.4% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.7
9-9 1.1% 26.7% 26.7% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8
8-10 0.5% 14.6% 14.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.0% 53.0% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 6.9 24.9 17.0 3.1 0.3 0.0 47.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 10.6 0.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 6.6 12.8 62.5 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 1.8% 12.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%