Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#83
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#99
Pace70.7#154
Improvement+3.7#12

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#117
First Shot+0.9#153
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#107
Layup/Dunks+8.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#265
Freethrows-1.2#244
Improvement-1.0#265

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#58
First Shot+5.3#40
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#248
Layups/Dunks+1.1#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#28
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement+4.7#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.8% 56.2% 47.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.2 12.7
.500 or above 99.1% 99.4% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.0% 98.1%
Conference Champion 73.9% 75.3% 66.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round54.8% 56.1% 47.8%
Second Round10.4% 11.0% 7.2%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.5% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 39 - 310 - 6
Quad 412 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 52 @Boise St. L 77-101 26%     0 - 1 -10.7 +7.7 -16.9
  Sat, Nov 15 183 @Fresno St. L 74-75 69%     0 - 2 +0.3 +2.3 -2.0
  Wed, Nov 19 120 UC Irvine W 79-72 74%     1 - 2 +6.9 +11.1 -4.3
  Tue, Nov 25 153 South Dakota St. W 75-52 74%     2 - 2 +23.0 +3.6 +19.5
  Wed, Nov 26 231 Samford W 89-45 84%     3 - 2 +39.9 +8.9 +29.0
  Wed, Dec 3 56 @San Diego St. L 66-77 27%     3 - 3 +2.0 -1.0 +3.0
  Sat, Dec 6 129 @Bowling Green W 82-71 56%     4 - 3 +16.1 +11.2 +4.7
  Wed, Dec 10 168 Idaho St. W 74-64 84%    
  Sat, Dec 13 141 UC Santa Barbara W 76-71 70%    
  Wed, Dec 17 195 Weber St. W 81-69 86%    
  Mon, Dec 29 131 California Baptist W 74-66 76%    
  Thu, Jan 1 201 @Tarleton St. W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 215 @Abilene Christian W 72-65 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 320 Southern Utah W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 Utah Tech W 79-64 91%    
  Sat, Jan 17 191 Texas Arlington W 77-65 85%    
  Wed, Jan 21 320 @Southern Utah W 80-67 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 131 @California Baptist W 71-69 55%    
  Thu, Jan 29 201 @Tarleton St. W 77-71 71%    
  Thu, Feb 5 215 Abilene Christian W 75-62 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 191 Texas Arlington W 77-65 84%    
  Thu, Feb 12 257 @Utah Tech W 76-67 78%    
  Thu, Feb 19 131 California Baptist W 74-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 21 191 @Texas Arlington W 74-68 69%    
  Thu, Feb 26 201 Tarleton St. W 80-68 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 215 Abilene Christian W 75-62 87%    
  Thu, Mar 5 320 @Southern Utah W 80-67 87%    
  Sat, Mar 7 257 @Utah Tech W 76-67 78%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 6.7 12.5 17.0 17.4 12.5 5.2 73.9 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.4 5.1 5.3 3.1 0.9 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 8.3 12.3 15.7 17.9 17.4 12.5 5.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.2    5.2
17-1 100.0% 12.5    12.5
16-2 99.6% 17.4    16.9 0.5
15-3 94.9% 17.0    15.1 1.9 0.0
14-4 79.9% 12.5    9.4 3.0 0.1
13-5 54.9% 6.7    3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0
12-6 25.8% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
11-7 7.0% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 73.9% 73.9 63.6 9.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.2% 75.7% 74.4% 1.3% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 5.0%
17-1 12.5% 70.5% 70.4% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.5 4.7 0.5 0.0 3.7 0.4%
16-2 17.4% 65.7% 65.6% 0.0% 12.1 1.5 7.4 2.4 0.1 6.0 0.1%
15-3 17.9% 59.1% 59.1% 12.4 0.5 5.7 3.9 0.5 0.0 7.3
14-4 15.7% 53.5% 53.5% 12.7 0.1 3.1 4.2 1.0 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.3% 46.3% 46.3% 13.0 0.0 1.2 3.2 1.1 0.1 6.6
12-6 8.3% 40.8% 40.8% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.1 0.1 0.0 4.9
11-7 5.0% 30.4% 30.4% 13.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.5
10-8 2.9% 21.4% 21.4% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.3
9-9 1.5% 17.1% 17.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-10 0.7% 13.7% 13.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.3% 10.6% 10.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 6.8% 6.8% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.8% 54.7% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 7.2 23.2 16.9 4.9 0.7 0.0 45.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 9.2 0.1 2.2 5.1 7.6 7.3 9.3 12.8 15.0 35.1 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 9.1% 11.0 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 4.6% 11.3 1.1 1.1 2.3