Bowling Green
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.5 166
Results Rating -2.2 199
Consistency 0.19 345
Pace 69.9 136
Improvement -6.6 356

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 228 C D- C C+ B+
Defense C+ 131 C C+ C+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% 4 C- 56% 243 +5.2 26
2 Pt. Jumpers 39% 165 C- 36% 239 -1.9 275
Three Pointers 34% 321 B- 35% 115 -2.8 273
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.3 32 C- -0.8 202
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 152
Second Chance D+ 27.5% 260 F 0.82 361 D- 0.23 345
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 130
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 241
Turnovers C 16.6% 175
Freethrows C+ 0.31 158 C+ 73% 172 C+ 0.23 149
Total Offense C- -2.0 228

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D- 37% 335 D+ 13.0% 305
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 87 D+ 7.0% 302
Three Pointers B- 87% 117 C- 1.1% 251
Total D 49% 312 F 8.0% 350


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 201 C+ 57% 139 -0.8 140
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 288 C- 39% 219 -1.1 97
Three Pointers 45% 69 C+ 33% 147 +1.5 266
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 245 C+ -0.9 144
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 160
Second Chance B- 27.7% 87 C 1.04 200 C+ 0.29 114
Turnovers from Steals B 11.1% 59
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 257
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 110
Freethrows C- 0.32 251 C 73% 192 C- 0.23 249
Total Defense C+ +1.5 131

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 94 C+ 12.8% 95
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 33 C 5.0% 162
Three Pointers D+ 86% 257 D 0.3% 308
Total C 55% 158 C 5.9% 155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 180 16.9 110
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 30 0.18 217
Consistency 0.14 290 0.16 353
Improvement -3.6 332 -3.0 316

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 187 169 148
Results Rating Rank 226 197 165
Conference Record 8 - 10 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 6 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 4% 3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.3 13.9 14.9
.500 or above 71% 100% 37%
.500 or above in Conference 55% 100% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Away) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 65 - 11
Quad 411 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 233 Texas St. W 83 - 48 73% +13  88% 1 - 0 A+ +28 B- +5 A+ F B- A+ +22 A A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 305 Le Moyne W 83 - 60 85% +6  70% 2 - 0 B +11 C+ +3 B- F A+ A +9 B C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 113 @Davidson L 87 - 91 26% -9  1% 2 - 1 C+ +2 B +6 D+ B- A+ D+ -3 F B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 139 William & Mary L 74 - 82 55% -9  10% 2 - 2 D -10 F -11 F C- F B- +2 C- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 331 Bucknell W 71 - 66 85% +7  91% 3 - 2 D+ -7 D- -7 D+ D F C+ +0 F B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 358 VMI W 81 - 48 92% +22  99% 4 - 2 A- +17 C- -0 B- C+ F A+ +19 A+ A- A
 Mon, Dec 1 96 @Kansas St. W 82 - 66 19% +9  98% 5 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +19 A- A A+ A- +7 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 97 Utah Valley L 71 - 82 38% -10  6% 5 - 3 D -8 D+ -3 D+ C+ B D+ -5 F B+ B+
 Tue, Dec 16 348 Chicago St. W 76 - 55 92% +11  99% 6 - 3 C+ +5 D -5 C- F A A +10 A+ B C+
 Sat, Dec 20 222 @Ohio W 68 - 58 50% +9  87% 7 - 3 1 - 0 B +9 D -6 D D+ F A+ +16 A C A+
 Tue, Dec 30 91 Miami (OH) L 83 - 93 36% -13  12% 7 - 4 1 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 B- D+ C D- -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 194 @Massachusetts W 101 - 100 OT 44% +0  50% 8 - 4 2 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 B+ F A D+ -4 F B- B
 Tue, Jan 6 152 @Kent St. L 93 - 96 35% -2  22% 8 - 5 2 - 2 C +0 A+ +17 B+ A+ B+ F -17 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 71 Akron L 67 - 77 28% -11  0% 8 - 6 2 - 3 C- -5 F -10 C F D B+ +6 A C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 247 Eastern Michigan W 85 - 79 76% +6  77% 9 - 6 3 - 3 C- -2 A +13 A+ C+ C+ F -15 F C+ F+
 Tue, Jan 20 280 @Western Michigan W 72 - 54 62% +10  87% 10 - 6 4 - 3 B+ +14 D+ -3 D+ F C+ A+ +19 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 150 @Toledo L 72 - 73 35% +1  57% 10 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +2 C- -2 A F F B +4 A D D-
 Tue, Jan 27 212 Buffalo L 78 - 89 70% -5  5% 10 - 8 4 - 5 F+ -17 C +1 D+ A- B+ F -18 F B- D
 Sat, Jan 31 259 @Central Michigan L 59 - 62 58% +4  66% 10 - 9 4 - 6 D+ -6 F -19 F F C+ A+ +13 A+ F C
 Tue, Feb 3 291 Ball St. W 77 - 52 83% +13  94% 11 - 9 5 - 6 B+ +14 B+ +9 A+ F+ F A +9 A- C- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 147 @Arkansas St. L 54 - 91 33% -21  0% 11 - 10 F -33 F -24 F F F D- -7 F D D
 Wed, Feb 11 339 @Northern Illinois W 68 - 52 80% +15  94% 12 - 10 6 - 6 B- +7 F+ -9 C F F A+ +16 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 150 Toledo W 80 - 70 58% +6  71% 13 - 10 7 - 6 B- +7 B +6 C C+ A+ C+ +2 A- D- D+
 Tue, Feb 17 152 Kent St. L 71 - 78 58% -3  28% 13 - 11 7 - 7 D -10 F+ -10 F F+ D C+ +0 D+ A+ F
 Fri, Feb 20 91 @Miami (OH) L 77 - 91 18% -10  6% 13 - 12 7 - 8 C- -5 C +1 C D B- D -5 D D C
 Tue, Feb 24 280 Western Michigan L 79 - 88 80% -2  29% 13 - 13 7 - 9 F -19 D- -6 D+ F A- F -12 D C- F
 Sat, Feb 28 194 Massachusetts W 81 - 62 67% -0  36% 14 - 13 8 - 9 B+ +14 B+ +7 B+ F+ B+ A- +8 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Mar 6 247 @Eastern Michigan W 70 - 69 55%
Totals 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1 C- -2 B+ C- B+ C+ +1 B- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- B- C- 50% 39% 34% B+ C D+ F D- C C+ C+ C+ C+ C+ C- C+ C+ 38% 17% 45% D+ C B- C C+ C+ C- C C-
1.06 56% 36% 35% -1 +1 1.03 28% 0.8 .23 17% .31 73% .23 1.07 57% 39% 33% -1 0 1.01 28% 1.0 .29 18% .32 73% .23
Nov
3		 Texas St. B- A F+ A+ A+ 47% 14% 39% B- A+ D F F B- D- D D- A+ B+ C A+ A+ 47% 20% 33% F A A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19 0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06
Nov
9		 Le Moyne C+ F A+ A+ C+ 57% 10% 33% A B- D+ F F A+ D- A+ C+ A A- F A- B+ 35% 11% 54% D+ B F A+ C A+ A- F C
1.18 42% 67% 47% +1 +3 1.09 27% 0.4 .11 9% .26 94% .25 0.85 50% 60% 28% -5 +1 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 34% .26 92% .24
Nov
15		 Davidson B C D+ F D+ 49% 30% 21% C+ D+ C+ B- B- A+ A+ C+ A+ D+ D+ F F F 30% 21% 49% B- F A D B A+ F F F
1.10 57% 35% 25% -4 0 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 11% .50 69% .34 1.15 62% 56% 48% +15 -1 1.30 23% 1.2 .27 23% .62 74% .46
Nov
19		 William & Mary F F+ A+ F F 54% 8% 38% A F D+ B- C- F A+ A- A+ B- D B C+ C- 43% 6% 51% D C- C+ C+ C+ A+ D- F F
0.95 52% 75% 16% -11 +3 0.86 27% 1.1 .30 23% .45 78% .35 1.05 67% 33% 32% +2 +2 1.10 25% 1.1 .28 23% .40 88% .35
Nov
24		 Bucknell D- F C A+ D- 42% 11% 47% A- D+ F A+ D F A+ D- A+ C+ D- A+ F F 44% 12% 44% F+ F A+ F B- A+ F C F
1.03 42% 40% 43% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.8 .28 22% .48 69% .33 0.96 63% 0% 42% +3 +2 1.12 15% 1.5 .23 26% .39 75% .29
Nov
26		 VMI C- B+ A- B+ B- 42% 17% 42% B- B- A+ F C+ F C C C A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% F A+ D- A+ A- A F F F
1.22 70% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.25 56% 0.8 .42 24% .30 73% .22 0.72 35% 0% 8% -32 +2 0.42 30% 0.5 .14 21% .61 78% .47
Dec
1		 Kansas St. A+ F A+ A+ A- 40% 10% 50% B+ A- A+ C- A A+ B B- B+ A- A- A+ A+ A+ 49% 14% 37% D- A+ D+ C- D+ F F A+ C-
1.28 37% 60% 46% +3 +1 1.10 44% 1.1 .50 12% .34 74% .25 1.03 52% 14% 26% -11 +2 0.84 35% 1.1 .38 9% .38 55% .21
Dec
6		 Utah Valley D+ A+ F+ F D 43% 19% 39% C+ D+ C B- C+ B C F D+ D+ F F D F 52% 8% 40% D F B- A- B+ B+ C+ C+ C+
0.99 74% 30% 14% -6 +1 0.91 30% 1.1 .33 18% .34 65% .22 1.14 76% 75% 37% +14 +3 1.35 35% 0.9 .31 24% .27 67% .18
Dec
16		 Chicago St. D B- F F D 58% 2% 40% A+ C- F D- F A D+ D D A A+ A+ A- A+ 30% 48% 22% A+ A+ D+ A+ B C+ F A+ F
1.13 67% 0% 29% +1 +4 1.12 23% 1.0 .23 15% .31 72% .23 0.82 33% 25% 27% -16 -4 0.62 30% 0.7 .22 16% .48 63% .30
Dec
20		 Ohio D F B C+ D- 53% 16% 31% B+ D C+ D- D+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ F F A+ A+ 26% 13% 62% D+ A B- F+ C A+ F A F
1.01 46% 43% 36% -5 +2 0.96 35% 0.9 .32 24% .45 83% .37 0.86 70% 60% 17% -10 0 0.82 25% 1.1 .28 22% .57 63% .36
Dec
30		 Miami (OH) C+ A- A+ F B- 47% 18% 35% B+ B- C- D D+ C A D- B+ D- D+ F F F 44% 17% 40% D+ F F D- F A+ F F F
1.10 69% 50% 26% +3 +1 1.11 28% 0.8 .22 17% .37 70% .26 1.23 67% 50% 47% +14 +1 1.31 31% 1.3 .38 21% .40 92% .37
Jan
3		 Massachusetts B- B- F+ A+ B 54% 18% 29% B B+ F A- F A A+ F+ A+ D+ D B F F 54% 12% 35% F F A+ F B- B F D- F
1.16 63% 30% 44% +6 +1 1.16 14% 1.2 .17 11% .58 67% .39 1.15 64% 33% 50% +11 +2 1.29 20% 1.7 .33 21% .51 71% .36
Jan
6		 Kent St. A+ C- F A+ B 53% 9% 38% A B+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ F F D- F F 42% 13% 45% D F C F F F A- F C
1.32 56% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.15 44% 1.2 .52 13% .51 87% .44 1.36 68% 43% 42% +10 +1 1.25 34% 1.5 .52 14% .31 89% .28
Jan
9		 Akron F D+ B C+ C 43% 24% 33% C- C D+ F F D D+ F D B+ D+ A+ B- A 31% 13% 56% C+ A C+ C C+ B+ D- C- D-
0.93 55% 42% 35% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.5 .15 21% .25 64% .16 1.07 65% 14% 32% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.3 .41 19% .31 78% .24
Jan
17		 Eastern Michigan A C- D- A+ A+ 51% 24% 24% C+ A+ B- C- C+ C+ A- B A- F D F D F 38% 24% 38% D+ F F+ A C+ F+ C+ F D+
1.28 56% 33% 67% +10 0 1.22 32% 1.0 .32 15% .37 76% .28 1.19 63% 58% 37% +8 0 1.18 32% 0.8 .26 14% .24 86% .21
Jan
20		 Western Michigan D+ D A+ F D- 58% 6% 36% A+ D+ D+ F F C+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% D- A+ C+ A B+ A+ B D B-
1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32 0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19
Jan
24		 Toledo C- C A+ A+ B+ 67% 8% 25% A+ A C+ F F F C- D C- B A+ B C A+ 39% 22% 39% D+ A C+ F D D- A- F B-
1.06 59% 75% 46% +8 +4 1.25 36% 0.2 .07 24% .23 67% .15 1.08 39% 38% 35% -7 0 0.88 28% 1.3 .36 12% .20 92% .18
Jan
27		 Buffalo C C F C D- 55% 12% 33% A- D+ C- A+ A- B+ C- F F+ F B F F F 40% 10% 50% D- F B D+ B- D D- D+ D-
1.17 61% 17% 35% 0 +2 1.06 31% 1.4 .43 15% .26 60% .16 1.33 53% 60% 54% +15 +1 1.35 22% 1.2 .26 13% .38 77% .29
Jan
31		 Central Michigan F F F F F 59% 15% 25% B+ F F F F C+ F F F A+ C A+ A+ A+ 46% 28% 26% D+ A+ C- F F C C+ A+ A
0.84 49% 22% 27% -11 +2 0.85 25% 0.4 .09 16% .20 58% .12 0.88 57% 21% 15% -13 0 0.76 29% 1.5 .44 18% .26 47% .12
Feb
3		 Ball St. B+ A+ F A+ A+ 42% 21% 37% C+ A+ C- F F+ F B- A+ A A C- C- A+ A- 34% 23% 43% B A- A+ F C- C- D A+ B+
1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29 0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Arkansas St. F C F F F 40% 22% 38% C F D F F F B+ C+ B+ D- F A F F 37% 8% 56% D F D C- D D C A+ A-
0.72 59% 25% 10% -16 0 0.69 23% 0.1 .03 23% .38 73% .27 1.21 74% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.27 41% 1.1 .44 17% .34 57% .19
Feb
11		 Northern Illinois F+ C B C- C- 56% 14% 30% B C F D F F F A+ F A+ B+ D- A+ A+ 37% 14% 49% C+ A+ A+ F B+ D- A F B
0.98 61% 43% 33% +2 +2 1.10 17% 1.0 .17 22% .20 82% .16 0.75 47% 43% 16% -17 +1 0.71 17% 1.0 .17 19% .26 73% .19
Feb
14		 Toledo B F F A+ C 50% 14% 36% B C F+ A+ C+ A+ A D+ A- C+ A+ F D A- 27% 33% 40% A A- D- D+ D- D+ B C- B-
1.22 48% 29% 50% +2 +2 1.10 26% 1.4 .37 11% .32 68% .22 1.07 14% 59% 38% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.1 .37 14% .23 77% .18
Feb
17		 Kent St. F+ F+ D+ F F 59% 6% 35% A+ F D F F+ D A+ D+ A+ C+ A- D- F D 29% 16% 56% C+ D+ A A+ A+ F F B F
0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +3 0.86 25% 0.8 .20 18% .60 69% .42 1.08 46% 43% 40% +2 0 1.07 26% 0.3 .08 14% .64 70% .45
Feb
20		 Miami (OH) C D- F A C- 43% 14% 43% B+ C D D- D B- D C- D D B- F F D- 33% 13% 54% C- D C F D C F A D-
1.04 52% 25% 40% -1 +1 1.03 24% 0.8 .19 16% .24 73% .18 1.23 59% 57% 43% +10 +1 1.23 24% 1.4 .32 15% .43 67% .29
Feb
24		 Western Michigan D- C F A- D+ 45% 18% 36% C D+ D- F F A- A+ D- A+ F D D D- F+ 38% 37% 25% A D A+ F C- F F F F
1.08 60% 10% 40% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 10% .49 66% .32 1.21 60% 42% 38% +4 -2 1.06 19% 1.7 .31 12% .48 87% .42
Feb
28		 Massachusetts B+ C- A+ A- B 45% 8% 47% A- B+ C F F+ B+ C- A+ B A- C- A+ B- B 45% 18% 37% D- B- A+ A+ A+ D- A B+ A
1.24 59% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.16 29% 0.7 .19 14% .37 86% .32 0.95 61% 22% 32% -3 +1 0.98 20% 0.9 .17 15% .23 62% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 40.1 40.1 5th
6th 45.4 14.4 59.9 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 45.4 54.6 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 54.6% 3.9% 3.9% 13.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 52.4
8-10 45.4% 3.2% 3.2% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 44.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.3 96.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 13.9 1.4 27.8 53.3 17.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 20.0%
Lose Out 28.5%