Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#138
Expected Predictive Rating+10.3#61
Pace65.3#291
Improvement-2.9#336

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#140
First Shot+3.4#82
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#315
Layup/Dunks-4.7#324
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#63
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#53
Freethrows+1.0#123
Improvement+0.0#189

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#153
First Shot-0.8#200
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#94
Layups/Dunks+1.4#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#99
Freethrows-1.1#254
Improvement-2.8#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.3 11.8
.500 or above 75.5% 89.9% 70.8%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 60.9% 47.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.7% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 1.6% 3.6%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round1.4% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 36 - 38 - 12
Quad 49 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 151 Washington St. W 85-69 67%     1 - 0 +13.2 +8.8 +4.3
  Tue, Nov 11 181 @Charlotte W 62-55 51%     2 - 0 +8.4 +1.0 +8.8
  Sat, Nov 15 129 Bowling Green W 91-87 60%     3 - 0 +3.1 +9.0 -6.4
  Fri, Nov 21 145 Boston College W 59-49 52%     4 - 0 +11.0 +2.2 +10.9
  Sun, Nov 23 51 Utah St. L 60-94 20%     4 - 1 -23.5 -8.5 -14.9
  Fri, Nov 28 299 N.C. A&T W 90-74 87%     5 - 1 +5.4 +19.5 -13.2
  Thu, Dec 4 363 The Citadel W 79-63 96%     6 - 1 -2.1 +2.4 -3.0
  Sun, Dec 7 41 St. Mary's L 65-72 24%    
  Sat, Dec 13 324 Mercyhurst W 74-60 91%    
  Thu, Dec 18 160 Temple W 77-72 68%    
  Mon, Dec 22 18 @Kansas L 62-79 5%    
  Tue, Dec 30 133 Duquesne W 77-74 60%    
  Sat, Jan 3 178 @Saint Joseph's W 71-70 50%    
  Wed, Jan 7 260 @Loyola Chicago W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 116 Rhode Island W 72-71 55%    
  Wed, Jan 14 59 @George Washington L 73-84 17%    
  Wed, Jan 21 229 Fordham W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 42 Virginia Commonwealth L 69-76 26%    
  Wed, Jan 28 74 @George Mason L 64-73 21%    
  Sat, Jan 31 105 @Richmond L 70-76 30%    
  Tue, Feb 3 45 Saint Louis L 72-78 29%    
  Fri, Feb 6 260 Loyola Chicago W 75-65 82%    
  Sun, Feb 15 70 @Dayton L 67-76 20%    
  Wed, Feb 18 105 Richmond W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Feb 21 229 @Fordham W 69-66 59%    
  Wed, Feb 25 133 @Duquesne L 74-77 39%    
  Sun, Mar 1 225 La Salle W 73-65 78%    
  Wed, Mar 4 178 Saint Joseph's W 74-68 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 108 @St. Bonaventure L 66-71 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.4 2.0 0.1 10.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 6.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.8 4.0 0.6 0.0 12.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 4.8 4.6 0.9 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 10.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.8 1.2 0.1 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.1 3.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.6 9.6 12.4 14.5 14.2 12.7 10.0 6.9 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 90.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 62.5% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 28.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 6.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.3% 27.4% 15.5% 11.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 14.1%
15-3 0.9% 13.4% 9.3% 4.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 4.5%
14-4 2.0% 8.9% 7.9% 1.0% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 1.1%
13-5 4.0% 5.7% 5.4% 0.3% 11.4 0.1 0.1 3.8 0.3%
12-6 6.9% 3.6% 3.6% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6
11-7 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
10-8 12.7% 1.2% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.5
9-9 14.2% 0.8% 0.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.1
8-10 14.5% 0.3% 0.3% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5
7-11 12.4% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3
6-12 9.6% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 9.6
5-13 6.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 6.5
4-14 3.6% 3.6
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.6 0.1%