Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#131
Expected Predictive Rating+9.9#52
Pace64.5#311
Improvement+0.5#128

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#125
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#27
Layup/Dunks+1.9#107
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#330
Freethrows+1.1#133
Improvement-0.2#200

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#163
First Shot-1.3#227
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#88
Layups/Dunks+0.3#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#264
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement+0.6#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 4.0% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 68.7% 70.3% 39.5%
.500 or above in Conference 47.5% 48.5% 29.2%
Conference Champion 3.7% 3.9% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 8.6% 8.1% 17.0%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 3.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: VMI (Home) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 35 - 57 - 12
Quad 49 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 262   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 66%     1 - 0 +3.7 +8.3 -5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 188   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 73%     2 - 0 +1.7 +8.1 -5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 344   VMI W 82-65 95%    
  Nov 27, 2024 13   Arizona L 69-83 10%    
  Dec 06, 2024 310   Charleston Southern W 77-64 89%    
  Dec 10, 2024 142   Charlotte W 67-63 63%    
  Dec 14, 2024 328   Detroit Mercy W 76-62 90%    
  Dec 18, 2024 114   @ Temple L 67-72 33%    
  Dec 21, 2024 287   Bethune-Cookman W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 28, 2024 300   Eastern Michigan W 73-61 86%    
  Dec 31, 2024 92   @ George Mason L 65-72 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 211   Duquesne W 71-64 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 162   Fordham W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 121   @ La Salle L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 18, 2025 113   @ Rhode Island L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 21, 2025 99   Saint Joseph's L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 201   @ Richmond W 68-67 53%    
  Feb 01, 2025 92   George Mason L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 04, 2025 60   @ Dayton L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 08, 2025 201   Richmond W 71-64 72%    
  Feb 12, 2025 128   @ Massachusetts L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 15, 2025 143   George Washington W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 18, 2025 104   Loyola Chicago W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 22, 2025 162   @ Fordham L 70-71 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 100   Saint Louis W 75-74 50%    
  Feb 28, 2025 50   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 63-74 19%    
  Mar 05, 2025 104   @ Loyola Chicago L 68-73 32%    
  Mar 08, 2025 115   St. Bonaventure W 69-68 55%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 3.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.7 4th
5th 0.4 3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 3.8 1.2 0.0 7.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.4 2.2 0.2 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.5 3.4 0.4 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.4 1.2 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.2 2.5 0.1 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 7.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.3 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.8 15th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.5 7.8 9.9 11.6 12.2 11.7 10.7 8.9 6.8 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 98.9% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 90.6% 0.5    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 74.2% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.1
14-4 38.9% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 14.8% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 75.6% 30.0% 45.6% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 65.1%
16-2 0.6% 53.2% 25.1% 28.1% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 37.5%
15-3 1.5% 34.0% 21.4% 12.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0 16.1%
14-4 2.8% 20.7% 18.0% 2.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 2.2 3.2%
13-5 4.4% 12.7% 12.0% 0.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 0.8%
12-6 6.8% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.2 0.0%
11-7 8.9% 5.2% 5.2% 0.1% 12.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.4 0.1%
10-8 10.7% 3.0% 3.0% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 10.4
9-9 11.7% 1.5% 1.5% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.5
8-10 12.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-11 11.6% 0.4% 0.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5
6-12 9.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9
5-13 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 7.8
4-14 5.5% 0.1% 0.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.5
3-15 3.3% 3.3
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.6% 0.6
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 3.9% 3.3% 0.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.1 0.6%