Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.5#122
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#80
Pace65.3#275
Improvement+0.4#152

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#97
First Shot+1.5#129
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#108
Layup/Dunks-0.6#200
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#246
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#98
Freethrows+0.7#138
Improvement-1.2#278

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#183
First Shot-1.5#223
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#92
Layups/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#277
Freethrows+1.5#82
Improvement+1.6#70
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.1% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 83.6% 86.6% 66.2%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 57.7% 44.5%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.5% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 4.1% 3.7% 6.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.9% 3.1% 1.6%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bethune-Cookman (Home) - 85.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 36 - 49 - 12
Quad 410 - 119 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 267   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 69%     1 - 0 +3.3 +8.4 -5.6
  Nov 16, 2024 132   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 64%     2 - 0 +4.7 +11.2 -5.8
  Nov 22, 2024 347   VMI W 93-66 94%     3 - 0 +11.8 +11.4 +0.0
  Nov 27, 2024 17   Arizona L 71-104 12%     3 - 1 -17.8 -2.1 -12.1
  Nov 28, 2024 73   Providence W 69-58 31%     4 - 1 +18.6 +11.2 +8.9
  Nov 29, 2024 4   Gonzaga L 65-90 6%     4 - 2 -4.9 -2.1 -2.2
  Dec 06, 2024 301   Charleston Southern W 73-72 89%     5 - 2 -9.7 -2.6 -7.0
  Dec 10, 2024 193   Charlotte W 75-71 75%     6 - 2 -0.4 +18.1 -17.5
  Dec 14, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 86-51 91%     7 - 2 +22.9 +11.4 +12.9
  Dec 18, 2024 119   @ Temple L 61-62 38%     7 - 3 +4.6 -1.1 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 262   Bethune-Cookman W 77-66 85%    
  Dec 28, 2024 317   Eastern Michigan W 79-65 91%    
  Dec 31, 2024 87   @ George Mason L 64-71 26%    
  Jan 04, 2025 200   Duquesne W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 11, 2025 169   Fordham W 76-70 72%    
  Jan 15, 2025 164   @ La Salle L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 18, 2025 99   @ Rhode Island L 73-79 30%    
  Jan 21, 2025 96   Saint Joseph's L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 25, 2025 216   @ Richmond W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 01, 2025 87   George Mason L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 04, 2025 46   @ Dayton L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 08, 2025 216   Richmond W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 12, 2025 191   @ Massachusetts W 75-74 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 136   George Washington W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 106   Loyola Chicago W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 169   @ Fordham W 74-73 51%    
  Feb 25, 2025 143   Saint Louis W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 28, 2025 57   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-74 19%    
  Mar 05, 2025 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-74 34%    
  Mar 08, 2025 89   St. Bonaventure L 68-69 47%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.9 0.7 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.2 1.1 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.2 5.1 2.2 0.1 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 4.1 5.1 1.0 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.4 1.7 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.3 2.6 0.2 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.0 3.1 0.5 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.2 0.1 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.3 8.7 11.5 14.1 15.0 13.5 11.0 7.8 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 91.3% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-3 68.9% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 35.4% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 8.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 44.1% 23.5% 20.6% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.9%
16-2 0.3% 25.5% 18.6% 6.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.4%
15-3 0.9% 17.6% 15.0% 2.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8 3.0%
14-4 2.4% 13.5% 13.5% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.1
13-5 4.8% 10.4% 10.4% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.3
12-6 7.8% 6.9% 6.9% 11.8 0.1 0.4 0.0 7.2
11-7 11.0% 4.5% 4.5% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.5
10-8 13.5% 2.6% 2.6% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.2
9-9 15.0% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.8
8-10 14.1% 0.8% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.9
7-11 11.5% 0.4% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 8.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.6
5-13 5.3% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 5.3
4-14 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 2.9
3-15 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.2
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.9% 2.8% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.1 0.1%