Davidson
Atlantic 10
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#129
Expected Predictive Rating+1.5#145
Pace64.3#287
Improvement-1.4#261

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#87
First Shot+2.8#100
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#151
Layup/Dunks-0.1#186
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#65
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement-1.8#277

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#216
First Shot-3.6#293
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#37
Layups/Dunks-1.5#236
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#306
Freethrows+0.5#149
Improvement+0.4#165
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 84.3% 94.8% 71.8%
.500 or above in Conference 8.6% 15.1% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 0.1% 7.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 0.9% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fordham (Away) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 31 - 8
Quad 35 - 66 - 14
Quad 411 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 301   @ Bowling Green W 91-85 75%     1 - 0 +0.7 +8.6 -8.4
  Nov 16, 2024 148   East Tennessee St. W 76-70 64%     2 - 0 +4.2 +11.4 -6.6
  Nov 22, 2024 309   VMI W 93-66 88%     3 - 0 +16.0 +14.6 +0.9
  Nov 27, 2024 8   Arizona L 71-104 7%     3 - 1 -14.3 +0.6 -11.2
  Nov 28, 2024 79   Providence W 69-58 30%     4 - 1 +18.3 +8.1 +11.7
  Nov 29, 2024 11   Gonzaga L 65-90 7%     4 - 2 -6.6 -3.0 -2.9
  Dec 06, 2024 285   Charleston Southern W 73-72 85%     5 - 2 -8.5 -1.0 -7.5
  Dec 10, 2024 235   Charlotte W 75-71 78%     6 - 2 -2.5 +17.7 -19.2
  Dec 14, 2024 334   Detroit Mercy W 86-51 91%     7 - 2 +21.6 +12.4 +10.7
  Dec 18, 2024 155   @ Temple L 61-62 45%     7 - 3 +2.0 -5.4 +7.4
  Dec 21, 2024 293   Bethune-Cookman W 76-63 86%     8 - 3 +3.1 +1.6 +1.8
  Dec 28, 2024 291   Eastern Michigan W 86-64 86%     9 - 3 +12.4 +9.0 +3.8
  Dec 31, 2024 75   @ George Mason L 57-69 21%     9 - 4 0 - 1 -1.9 +2.8 -6.5
  Jan 04, 2025 132   Duquesne W 77-71 60%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +5.1 +15.6 -9.8
  Jan 11, 2025 204   Fordham W 74-64 74%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +5.1 -5.4 +10.0
  Jan 15, 2025 236   @ La Salle L 76-79 62%     11 - 5 2 - 2 -4.5 +2.9 -7.3
  Jan 18, 2025 121   @ Rhode Island L 90-92 38%     11 - 6 2 - 3 +2.8 +20.7 -17.9
  Jan 21, 2025 78   Saint Joseph's L 61-78 38%     11 - 7 2 - 4 -12.2 -4.1 -9.3
  Jan 25, 2025 218   @ Richmond W 72-66 59%     12 - 7 3 - 4 +5.4 +5.0 +0.9
  Feb 01, 2025 75   George Mason L 60-64 37%     12 - 8 3 - 5 +1.1 +1.9 -1.3
  Feb 04, 2025 83   @ Dayton L 63-69 23%     12 - 9 3 - 6 +3.3 -1.2 +3.9
  Feb 08, 2025 218   Richmond W 71-60 76%     13 - 9 4 - 6 +5.3 +14.6 -6.3
  Feb 12, 2025 168   @ Massachusetts W 77-68 48%     14 - 9 5 - 6 +11.2 +12.6 -0.8
  Feb 15, 2025 117   George Washington L 67-74 56%     14 - 10 5 - 7 -6.8 +0.5 -7.8
  Feb 18, 2025 110   Loyola Chicago L 69-77 54%     14 - 11 5 - 8 -7.2 +1.0 -8.6
  Feb 22, 2025 204   @ Fordham W 77-75 54%    
  Feb 25, 2025 109   Saint Louis W 73-72 56%    
  Feb 28, 2025 34   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 64-78 9%    
  Mar 05, 2025 110   @ Loyola Chicago L 69-73 33%    
  Mar 08, 2025 106   St. Bonaventure W 68-67 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.5 0.4 0.9 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 0.2 3.9 6th
7th 3.7 3.3 6.9 7th
8th 0.4 9.5 0.6 10.5 8th
9th 4.3 8.3 0.0 12.6 9th
10th 0.4 13.9 2.7 16.9 10th
11th 6.2 13.3 0.3 19.8 11th
12th 2.1 15.5 3.3 20.9 12th
13th 2.7 2.9 0.0 5.7 13th
14th 1.4 0.2 1.5 14th
15th 0.2 0.0 0.2 15th
Total 6.3 25.2 35.2 24.7 7.8 0.7 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.7% 5.4% 5.4% 12.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 7.8% 1.3% 1.3% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7
8-10 24.7% 1.5% 1.5% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 24.4
7-11 35.2% 0.5% 0.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 35.0
6-12 25.2% 0.5% 0.5% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 25.1
5-13 6.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 6.3
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 13.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.3%