Davidson
Atlantic 10
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #137
Expected Predictive Rating +4.8 #97
Pace 63.5 #322
Improvement -3.4 #321

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #170 B C C C- C
Defense #117 C+ B C B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.14 #189 -1.8 #248
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #202 0.95 #15 +1.3 #106
Three Pointers 45% #100 1.11 #56 +4.3 #51
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #74 +3.7 #74
Freethrows 18.1 #165 68% #317 12.2 #212
Second Chance 30.2% #197 1.03 #192 0.31 #191
Turnovers 16.8% #204
Total Offense -0.2 #170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 1.16 #184 +0.8 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #31 0.80 #259 -3.2 #353
Three Pointers 36% #315 0.95 #100 +3.9 #42
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.4 #134
Freethrows 16.4 #112 66% #5 10.7 #57
Second Chance 27.3% #64 0.99 #103 0.27 #61
Turnovers 16.8% #160
Total Defense +1.7 #117

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #191 -1.9% #43
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.3% #69 -0.8% #167
Possession Length 18.1 #258 18.3 #318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #296 0.16 #150
Improvement -2.5 #311 -0.9 #251

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.1
.500 or above 84.9% 95.2% 80.7%
.500 or above in Conference 66.3% 84.7% 58.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Home) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 22 - 43 - 8
Quad 37 - 59 - 13
Quad 48 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 141 Washington St. W 85 - 69 63% +16  1 - 0 +14 +9 A+ C- F +5 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 173 @Charlotte W 62 - 55 48% +10  2 - 0 +9 +1 A- F F +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 129 Bowling Green W 91 - 87 59% +9  3 - 0 +3 +8 A+ F F -6 B+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 134 Boston College W 59 - 49 50% +3  4 - 0 +12 +3 B+ F A+ +10 B+ B- A+
 Sun, Nov 23 39 Utah St. L 60 - 94 15% -17  4 - 1 -21 -9 D+ C F -12 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 304 N.C. A&T W 90 - 74 88% +9  5 - 1 +5 +17 A+ A+ B+ -11 F A+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 351 The Citadel W 79 - 63 94% +9  6 - 1 +0 +5 D C+ A+ -3 F A- B+
 Sun, Dec 7 42 St. Mary's L 61 - 70 23% -1  6 - 2 +0 -1 C+ F C +1 C+ A- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 306 Mercyhurst W 80 - 47 88% +17  7 - 2 +22 +19 A+ C+ B+ +9 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 140 Temple L 63 - 68 62% -6  7 - 3 -7 -3 F A B+ -4 B+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 19 @Kansas L 61 - 90 5% -20  7 - 4 -9 -4 B- C+ F -3 F D A+
 Tue, Dec 30 118 Duquesne L 83 - 89 2OT 57% +3  7 - 5 0 - 1 -6 +1 D- D- A+ -7 B+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 159 @Saint Joseph's W 62 - 56 44% -5  8 - 5 1 - 1 +9 +3 D- A+ F +7 A C B-
 Wed, Jan 7 268 @Loyola Chicago W 79 - 64 67% +10  9 - 5 2 - 1 +12 +8 A C+ F +5 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 10 122 Rhode Island L 45 - 70 58% -14  9 - 6 2 - 2 -25 -19 F F C- -11 F A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 72 @George Washington W 84 - 79 19% +9  10 - 6 3 - 2 +16 +18 A+ A+ B- -2 A+ C+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 193 Fordham W 68 - 63 74% -1  11 - 6 4 - 2 -0 -1 C+ D D- +1 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 55 Virginia Commonwealth L 70 - 76 29%
 Wed, Jan 28 86 @George Mason L 64 - 73 21%
 Sat, Jan 31 120 @Richmond L 69 - 73 35%
 Tue, Feb 3 28 Saint Louis L 69 - 79 17%
 Fri, Feb 6 268 Loyola Chicago W 76 - 65 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 73 @Dayton L 63 - 72 19%
 Wed, Feb 18 120 Richmond W 72 - 70 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 193 @Fordham W 66 - 65 53%
 Wed, Feb 25 118 @Duquesne L 72 - 76 34%
 Sun, Mar 1 197 La Salle W 71 - 64 74%
 Wed, Mar 4 159 Saint Joseph's W 70 - 66 66%
 Sat, Mar 7 136 @St. Bonaventure L 69 - 72 39%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +2 +0 B C C +2 C+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.9 3.0 0.3 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 8.0 5.5 0.6 0.0 16.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 8.5 8.3 1.2 0.0 19.3 6th
7th 0.2 5.7 8.0 1.4 0.0 15.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.8 6.9 2.3 0.1 11.1 8th
9th 0.4 4.6 3.3 0.2 8.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.5 3.0 0.4 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 0.8 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.4 10.5 17.6 21.2 19.9 14.1 7.3 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 37.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 15.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.8% 7.5% 7.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 2.8
12-6 7.3% 2.8% 2.8% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1
11-7 14.1% 1.4% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.9
10-8 19.9% 1.1% 1.1% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 19.7
9-9 21.2% 0.6% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.1
8-10 17.6% 0.2% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5
7-11 10.5% 0.2% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 10.5
6-12 4.4% 4.4
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 12.0 99.0 0.0%