IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Davidson
Atlantic 10
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+0.8	#144
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#255
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.4	#152

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.4	#149

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	3.0%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Average Seed	11.3	11.1	11.9

.500 or above	44.6%	56.7%	29.5%
.500 or above in Conference	32.2%	38.9%	23.9%
Conference Champion	1.5%	1.9%	0.9%
Last Place in Conference	13.2%	9.7%	17.6%

First Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
First Round	2.2%	2.9%	1.3%
Second Round	0.4%	0.6%	0.2%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 2	2 - 5	2 - 8
Quad 3	5 - 6	7 - 14
Quad 4	7 - 1	14 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 07, 2025	124	Washington St.	W	74-72	56%
Nov 11, 2025	185	@ Charlotte	L	67-68	48%
Nov 15, 2025	220	Bowling Green	W	74-67	74%
Nov 21, 2025	100	Boston College	L	67-71	36%
Nov 28, 2025	351	N.C. A&T	W	79-63	92%
Dec 04, 2025	342	The Citadel	W	74-59	91%
Dec 07, 2025	49	St. Mary's	L	58-65	26%
Dec 13, 2025	361	Mercyhurst	W	75-55	96%
Dec 18, 2025	132	Temple	W	73-71	57%
Dec 22, 2025	13	@ Kansas	L	60-80	5%
Dec 30, 2025	115	Duquesne	W	67-66	51%
Jan 03, 2026	111	@ Saint Joseph's	L	66-72	30%
Jan 07, 2026	103	@ Loyola Chicago	L	65-72	27%
Jan 10, 2026	146	Rhode Island	W	74-71	60%
Jan 14, 2026	85	@ George Washington	L	66-74	24%
Jan 21, 2026	164	Fordham	W	75-71	65%
Jan 24, 2026	58	Virginia Commonwealth	L	64-70	31%
Jan 28, 2026	99	@ George Mason	L	62-69	27%
Jan 31, 2026	137	@ Richmond	L	64-68	37%
Feb 03, 2026	72	Saint Louis	L	68-72	36%
Feb 06, 2026	103	Loyola Chicago	L	68-69	47%
Feb 15, 2026	65	@ Dayton	L	62-73	18%
Feb 18, 2026	137	Richmond	W	67-65	57%
Feb 21, 2026	164	@ Fordham	L	72-74	45%
Feb 25, 2026	115	@ Duquesne	L	63-69	32%
Mar 01, 2026	196	La Salle	W	74-68	68%
Mar 04, 2026	111	Saint Joseph's	L	68-69	50%
Projected Record						13 - 14	7 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	0.0			1.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.3	0.9	1.1	0.5	0.2	0.0				2.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.4	1.7	0.8	0.1	0.0					4.3	3rd
4th									0.0	0.2	1.5	2.3	1.1	0.2	0.0						5.3	4th
5th									0.1	1.5	3.2	1.4	0.2								6.5	5th
6th								0.0	1.1	3.7	2.4	0.4	0.0								7.6	6th
7th							0.0	0.5	3.4	3.3	0.6	0.0									7.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.2	2.8	4.4	1.2	0.0	0.0									8.7	8th
9th						0.2	1.9	4.6	1.9	0.1											8.8	9th
10th					0.1	1.3	4.5	3.0	0.3												9.1	10th
11th			0.0	0.1	1.1	4.1	3.8	0.9	0.0												10.0	11th
12th		0.0	0.1	1.0	3.6	4.0	1.3	0.1													10.1	12th
13th	0.0	0.2	1.2	3.3	3.3	1.5	0.1														9.7	13th
14th	0.4	1.6	2.5	1.9	0.9	0.1															7.6	14th

Total	0.4	1.8	3.9	6.3	9.0	11.2	11.9	12.0	11.3	10.1	8.2	5.8	4.0	2.3	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0				Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	86.5%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	66.1%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-4	47.1%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	14.1%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
12-6	2.0%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.1%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.5%	1.5		0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1	0.0%		81.8%	27.5%	54.3%	6.5					0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0		0.0							0.0		74.9%
16-2	0.1%		43.5%	30.2%	13.3%	7.2		0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0						0.1		19.1%
15-3	0.6%		28.9%	17.3%	11.6%	9.9								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1						0.4		14.0%
14-4	1.1%		24.7%	18.4%	6.3%	10.5								0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0				0.8		7.7%
13-5	2.3%		15.1%	13.7%	1.4%	11.1										0.0	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0				2.0		1.6%
12-6	4.0%		10.2%	9.7%	0.5%	11.4										0.0		0.2	0.2	0.0				3.6		0.6%
11-7	5.8%		6.3%	6.1%	0.1%	11.7												0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0			5.4		0.1%
10-8	8.2%		2.7%	2.7%		12.2												0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0			7.9
9-9	10.1%		1.9%	1.9%		12.2												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0			9.9
8-10	11.3%		1.0%	1.0%		12.8												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		11.1
7-11	12.0%		0.3%	0.3%		13.4													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		11.9
6-12	11.9%		0.2%	0.2%		18.1															0.0	0.0	0.0	11.9
5-13	11.2%		0.1%	0.1%		15.5																0.0	0.0	11.2
4-14	9.0%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.0
3-15	6.3%																							6.3
2-16	3.9%																							3.9
1-17	1.8%																							1.8
0-18	0.4%																							0.4

Total	100%		2.2%	2.0%	0.2%	11.3		0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	97.8		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.0%	100.0%	5.0				50.0		50.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	5.0					100.0
Lose Out	0.0%