Mercyhurst
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#318
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#311
Pace62.6#342
Improvement-1.4#275

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#335
First Shot-5.8#337
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#214
Layup/Dunks-0.8#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.6#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#343
Freethrows-4.9#362
Improvement+0.5#139

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#280
First Shot-1.9#231
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#275
Layups/Dunks-3.8#312
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#101
Freethrows-2.1#316
Improvement-1.9#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 19.3% 22.8% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 62.9% 68.8% 41.4%
Conference Champion 6.3% 7.4% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.8% 14.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 411 - 811 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 57 @Northwestern L 47-70 3%     0 - 1 -11.0 -19.1 +7.3
  Thu, Nov 6 270 @Loyola Chicago W 73-65 27%     1 - 1 +5.1 -0.8 +6.2
  Wed, Nov 12 347 @Canisius L 55-58 49%     1 - 2 -12.2 -12.1 -0.5
  Sat, Nov 15 360 Morgan St. W 86-72 81%     2 - 2 -4.5 +5.9 -9.9
  Thu, Nov 20 106 @Miami (OH) L 71-76 7%     2 - 3 +2.3 +4.7 -2.7
  Sun, Nov 23 161 @Marshall L 60-69 13%     2 - 4 -6.1 -4.7 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 30 62 @West Virginia L 38-70 4%     2 - 5 -20.5 -22.0 -3.4
  Fri, Dec 5 321 @Lafayette L 71-79 39%     2 - 6 -14.5 +2.1 -17.4
  Sat, Dec 13 140 @Davidson L 47-80 11%     2 - 7 -28.6 -14.5 -20.4
  Wed, Dec 17 75 @Syracuse L 62-76 4%     2 - 8 -3.4 -6.6 +3.4
  Sat, Dec 20 363 Binghamton W 82-61 82%     3 - 8 +2.1 -0.7 +2.8
  Fri, Jan 2 357 Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-66 78%    
  Sun, Jan 4 312 Le Moyne W 74-72 60%    
  Thu, Jan 8 206 @LIU Brooklyn L 66-75 19%    
  Sat, Jan 10 295 @Wagner L 65-70 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 338 Stonehill W 66-61 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 278 Central Connecticut St. L 65-66 50%    
  Fri, Jan 23 340 @New Haven L 62-63 46%    
  Sun, Jan 25 336 Chicago St. W 71-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 340 New Haven W 65-60 68%    
  Sat, Jan 31 336 @Chicago St. L 68-70 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 361 St. Francis (PA) W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 357 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 71-69 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 295 Wagner W 68-67 53%    
  Sat, Feb 21 206 LIU Brooklyn L 69-72 38%    
  Thu, Feb 26 278 @Central Connecticut St. L 62-68 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 338 @Stonehill L 63-64 46%    
Projected Record 11 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 4.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 6.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.5 5.3 1.0 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.2 5.8 1.2 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.2 5.6 1.3 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.3 1.4 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.7 1.1 0.1 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 6.9 10.5 13.7 15.5 14.8 13.2 9.5 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
14-2 91.4% 0.9    0.7 0.2
13-3 69.2% 1.9    1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
12-4 37.1% 2.1    0.6 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
11-5 8.8% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 0.1
15-1 0.3% 0.3
14-2 1.0% 1.0
13-3 2.8% 2.8
12-4 5.7% 5.7
11-5 9.5% 9.5
10-6 13.2% 13.2
9-7 14.8% 14.8
8-8 15.5% 15.5
7-9 13.7% 13.7
6-10 10.5% 10.5
5-11 6.9% 6.9
4-12 3.6% 3.6
3-13 1.7% 1.7
2-14 0.6% 0.6
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%