Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#298
Expected Predictive Rating-7.5#286
Pace68.8#199
Improvement-2.7#332

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#307
First Shot-5.6#326
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#152
Layup/Dunks-4.3#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#216
Freethrows-1.2#247
Improvement-0.8#241

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#251
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#330
Layups/Dunks+2.0#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#221
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#123
Freethrows-2.9#329
Improvement-2.0#325
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 19.1% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.4 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 45.3% 51.6% 26.5%
.500 or above in Conference 83.2% 85.4% 76.6%
Conference Champion 23.2% 25.3% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 2.1% 4.3%
First Four13.9% 14.5% 11.9%
First Round10.4% 11.5% 7.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland Eastern Shore (Home) - 74.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 413 - 813 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 42 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74-103 3%     0 - 1 -14.4 +4.2 -16.3
  Fri, Nov 7 64 @Seton Hall L 61-68 5%     0 - 2 +4.6 +1.5 +2.5
  Tue, Nov 11 229 @Fordham L 61-63 26%     0 - 3 -2.9 -1.7 -1.6
  Sun, Nov 16 259 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70-71 OT 31%     0 - 4 -3.4 -10.5 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 22 86 @Georgetown L 75-92 7%     0 - 5 -7.7 +0.8 -7.5
  Wed, Nov 26 308 @Manhattan W 103-101 OT 41%     1 - 5 -3.2 +13.9 -17.3
  Tue, Dec 2 93 @Maryland L 63-89 7%     1 - 6 -17.4 -7.9 -8.1
  Wed, Dec 17 345 Maryland Eastern Shore W 67-60 75%    
  Fri, Jan 2 352 @Chicago St. W 75-73 58%    
  Sun, Jan 4 339 Stonehill W 72-65 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 357 St. Francis (PA) W 77-68 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 324 Mercyhurst W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 332 @New Haven L 66-67 49%    
  Mon, Jan 19 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-73 64%    
  Fri, Jan 23 306 @Le Moyne L 75-77 42%    
  Sun, Jan 25 227 @LIU Brooklyn L 70-77 27%    
  Thu, Jan 29 243 Central Connecticut St. L 67-68 50%    
  Sat, Jan 31 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 80-70 82%    
  Thu, Feb 5 306 Le Moyne W 78-74 63%    
  Sat, Feb 7 243 @Central Connecticut St. L 65-71 30%    
  Thu, Feb 12 227 LIU Brooklyn L 73-74 48%    
  Sat, Feb 14 339 @Stonehill W 69-68 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 324 @Mercyhurst L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Feb 21 357 @St. Francis (PA) W 74-71 62%    
  Thu, Feb 26 332 New Haven W 70-64 69%    
  Sat, Feb 28 352 Chicago St. W 78-70 77%    
Projected Record 12 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.8 5.9 5.6 4.0 2.0 22.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.9 6.7 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 6.4 5.3 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 5.2 4.3 1.0 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.3 0.7 0.0 7.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.8 0.8 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.4 10th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.4 6.9 9.4 11.6 13.4 13.2 12.2 10.0 7.0 4.3 2.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 98.5% 2.0    1.9 0.0
15-1 92.3% 4.0    3.5 0.5
14-2 80.2% 5.6    4.3 1.3 0.1
13-3 58.4% 5.9    3.3 2.3 0.3 0.0
12-4 31.1% 3.8    1.2 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-5 7.9% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 22.4% 22.4 14.3 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 2.0% 43.3% 43.3% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.1
15-1 4.3% 37.1% 37.1% 15.8 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.7
14-2 7.0% 35.0% 35.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 2.3 4.6
13-3 10.0% 30.1% 30.1% 16.0 0.1 3.0 7.0
12-4 12.2% 24.1% 24.1% 16.0 0.0 2.9 9.3
11-5 13.2% 18.3% 18.3% 16.0 0.0 2.4 10.8
10-6 13.4% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 1.7 11.8
9-7 11.6% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.0 10.6
8-8 9.4% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.7 8.7
7-9 6.9% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.3 6.5
6-10 4.4% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 4.2
5-11 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 2.6
4-12 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-13 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.1% 0.1
0-16
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.8 16.4 82.8 0.0%