St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.4 355
Expected Predictive Rating -15.2 354
Pace 73.1 66
Improvement +3.3 55

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- #335 D+ D D+ D- D
Defense D- #356 F D- B- D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 315 55% 250 -4.1 316
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 81 33% 320 +0.8 130
Three Pointers 42% 166 34% 197 +0.1 172
1st FG Attempt 0.95 281 -3.3 276
Second Chance 26.2% 299 0.97 261 0.26 301
Turnovers 18.7% 293
Freethrows 0.25 336 70% 263 0.17 343
Total Offense -6.6 335

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 109 67% 358 -5.5 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 340 36% 119 +2.5 14
Three Pointers 44% 95 39% 356 -5.1 350
1st FG Attempt 1.18 362 -8.1 362
Second Chance 34.0% 315 1.16 337 0.40 344
Turnovers 18.5% 90
Freethrows 0.36 320 72% 187 0.26 314
Total Defense -7.8 356

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -1.0 305 +0.9 335
Shot Type Accuracy -2.4 257 +7.0 361
Possession Length 17.3 175 15.8 12
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 266 0.22 334
Improvement +4.7 #9 -1.5 #274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 7% 19% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 35% 16% 42%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 40 - 9
Quad 46 - 146 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 54 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  6% 0 - 1 F -23 F+ -10 D D D F -11 F F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 50 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0% 0 - 2 F -27 F+ -9 C- F C F -14 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 11 289 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 35% -5  18% 0 - 3 F -18 F -12 F F+ D D -7 F B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 306 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 20% -9  1% 0 - 4 F -22 F -18 F C F D+ -4 D- F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 78 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  2% 0 - 5 F -30 F -19 F F F F+ -10 F C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 135 Troy L 64 - 74 8% +2  62% 0 - 6 D -8 F -14 C- F F B+ +6 C C- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 83 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0% 0 - 7 D- -12 D+ -4 C- C D+ D -6 C- D- D
 Sun, Dec 7 233 @Radford L 56 - 89 11% -17  1% 0 - 8 F -34 F -21 F F D F -14 F F C
 Sun, Dec 14 148 @Temple L 67 - 95 6% -17  0% 0 - 9 F -24 D- -8 D+ C+ D+ F -17 F A- C-
 Wed, Dec 17 4 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0% 0 - 10 F+ -15 D+ -3 C C C F+ -11 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 204 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 20% -2  38% 0 - 11 F+ -15 D+ -2 D+ A- A F -13 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 303 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 38% -9  23% 0 - 12 0 - 1 F -37 F -21 F F C F -18 F F C+
 Sun, Jan 4 329 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 48% -0  30% 1 - 12 1 - 1 D -11 C +0 D A C F -11 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 331 @Wagner W 71 - 69 27% -1  33% 2 - 12 2 - 1 D+ -6 D -4 C- C- D- C- -2 C D- C+
 Sat, Jan 10 207 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 9% -1  31% 2 - 13 2 - 2 C- -4 F -12 C F D- A- +8 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 294 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 36% -7  0% 2 - 14 2 - 3 F -19 A- +10 C+ A A- F -29 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 330 Stonehill W 63 - 61 48% -3  16% 3 - 14 3 - 3 D- -12 F -11 F C B- C -1 D- C- A+
 Fri, Jan 23 353 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 60% +13  97% 4 - 14 4 - 3 C+ +4 C +1 A+ F C B +4 C+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 334 New Haven L 69 - 81 49% -5  17% 4 - 15 4 - 4 F -26 D- -6 D- C- C+ F -20 F D+ F+
 Thu, Feb 5 304 @Mercyhurst L 89 - 98 OT 19% -3  23% 4 - 16 4 - 5 D- -14 B- +4 A- F+ D+ F -18 C F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 303 @Le Moyne L 84 - 86 19% +3  72% 4 - 17 4 - 6 D+ -7 C- -1 C+ C C- D -5 F B+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 353 @Chicago St. L 75 - 80 37% -7  10% 4 - 18 4 - 7 F+ -16 D- -7 D- C F D- -9 C- F B
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 78 26%
 Thu, Feb 19 207 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 81 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 331 Wagner L 75 - 76 49%
 Tue, Feb 24 334 @New Haven L 66 - 72 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 330 @Stonehill L 66 - 72 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 294 @Central Connecticut St. L 71 - 81 18%
Totals 6 - 22 6 - 11 -14 D- -7 D+ D D+ D- -8 F D- B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C- D C D+ 33% 25% 42% D D+ D D+ D D+ D- D+ D- D- F+ C+ F+ F 41% 15% 44% D F D D- D- B- D C D
0.99 55% 33% 34% -2 -1 0.95 26% 1.0 .26 19% .25 70% .17 1.20 67% 36% 39% +7 +1 1.18 34% 1.2 .40 19% .36 72% .18
Nov
3		 Oklahoma F+ A- F D D+ 34% 38% 28% F+ D C F+ D D F D F F F+ F C+ D- 57% 2% 41% F F F+ D- F C+ B- B- B-
0.89 65% 23% 31% -4 -3 0.88 30% 0.8 .25 19% .17 70% .12 1.38 70% 100% 33% +7 +4 1.24 40% 1.4 .57 15% .29 72% .21
Nov
6		 TCU F+ D+ F B C- 46% 21% 33% B- C- F C- F C F A+ F F F F D- F 35% 9% 56% D+ F F D F A- F F F
0.81 50% 25% 37% -5 0 0.93 13% 1.0 .13 21% .10 83% .08 1.34 74% 60% 39% +11 +1 1.27 47% 1.2 .56 19% .45 86% .38
Nov
11		 Mount St. Mary's F C D F F+ 28% 30% 42% F+ F A- F F+ D D+ D+ D+ D F F+ F F 29% 15% 56% B F B+ C+ B C+ D+ A+ A
0.96 56% 35% 25% -7 -2 0.84 38% 0.5 .19 16% .31 72% .22 1.07 79% 43% 41% +12 0 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 23% .34 39% .13
Nov
18		 Lehigh F F B C- F 43% 27% 31% C- F D- A+ C F F D F D+ D F C- D 43% 16% 41% F D- F D F B- F A- F
0.85 33% 46% 33% -9 0 0.84 28% 1.3 .36 25% .24 69% .16 1.08 62% 50% 35% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.1 .35 20% .45 65% .29
Nov
24		 Belmont F F A+ F F 33% 15% 52% B- F D- F F F C C- C F+ D B F F 42% 6% 53% D+ F B+ F C C- A- F B-
0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20 1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19
Nov
26		 Troy F F B A+ C- 30% 28% 41% D- C- C F F F B- B+ B B+ C- A B- 57% 0% 43% F C F+ B+ C- A+ F A+ F
0.87 36% 46% 42% +1 -2 1.00 31% 0.6 .20 30% .31 75% .23 1.01 58% 28% -4 +4 1.02 40% 0.9 .34 26% .55 63% .35
Dec
1		 Xavier D+ C- F B- C- 37% 25% 39% C- C- F A+ C D+ D A+ C D D- F A- C+ 43% 12% 46% F C- F+ C D- D B B+ B
0.95 57% 29% 36% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .23 19% .24 80% .19 1.24 69% 50% 29% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .33 10% .22 67% .14
Dec
7		 Radford F F B- C- F 31% 23% 46% D- F F+ F F D F C- F F D C- F F 35% 9% 56% D F D F F C A+ C+ A+
0.81 38% 42% 33% -6 -1 0.88 24% 0.7 .17 20% .13 71% .09 1.28 63% 40% 40% +7 +1 1.19 32% 1.6 .52 17% .24 71% .17
Dec
14		 Temple D- C F D D 46% 15% 38% B D+ C- B+ C+ D+ F+ F F F D+ F F F 48% 6% 46% F F A+ F A- C- A+ F A+
0.97 58% 25% 30% -4 +1 0.96 27% 1.2 .32 17% .23 54% .12 1.37 62% 67% 60% +21 +3 1.50 14% 1.3 .18 13% .23 86% .20
Dec
17		 Florida D+ C+ A- F B- 30% 44% 26% F C C C- C C F B D- F+ F F F F 41% 8% 51% C F F F F A D- F F
0.84 53% 44% 20% -4 -4 0.86 21% 0.6 .13 17% .18 73% .13 1.41 81% 75% 38% +16 +2 1.37 54% 1.3 .71 21% .42 83% .35
Dec
20		 Robert Morris D+ B- F B+ C- 31% 24% 45% D- D+ D A+ A- A F F F F C- A+ F F 42% 11% 47% F F A+ B- A+ C+ F D- F
1.10 63% 17% 39% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.7 .42 11% .18 50% .09 1.24 58% 20% 52% +11 +1 1.27 24% 1.0 .24 19% .44 74% .33
Jan
2		 Le Moyne F D F D+ F+ 24% 28% 48% F F D F F C B- F D- F D- C F F 38% 17% 45% C+ F F F F C+ A- A+ A+
0.86 50% 21% 33% -7 -2 0.84 28% 0.5 .14 15% .35 55% .19 1.25 67% 38% 52% +16 0 1.34 38% 1.3 .48 21% .26 57% .15
Jan
4		 Fairleigh Dickinson C F A B D+ 22% 24% 53% F+ D D A+ A C A+ A+ A+ F F F A+ D 33% 24% 43% B D+ A F F+ F F F F
1.18 45% 50% 38% +4 -2 1.06 23% 1.7 .40 15% .49 83% .41 1.14 69% 50% 24% 0 -1 1.00 23% 1.6 .37 13% .52 79% .41
Jan
8		 Wagner D B C- D+ C- 40% 17% 44% C- C- D+ C+ C- D- D+ A+ C+ C- F A+ A+ C- 35% 26% 39% B+ C F B D- C+ F A- D-
1.09 63% 38% 33% +2 +1 1.06 28% 1.1 .31 17% .35 84% .30 1.06 88% 17% 22% -2 -1 0.96 42% 1.0 .42 20% .37 63% .23
Jan
10		 LIU Brooklyn F F F+ A+ C+ 38% 26% 36% D- C F A+ F D- F+ F F A- A- B+ A+ A+ 47% 33% 20% B A+ F F F A+ F B+ F
0.88 42% 31% 50% +1 -1 1.02 10% 1.3 .13 21% .25 57% .14 0.94 48% 33% 0% -17 -1 0.67 51% 1.2 .61 27% .48 60% .29
Jan
17		 Central Connecticut St. A- C+ C+ A B+ 18% 30% 52% F C+ A B- A A- A F+ A- F F D- F F 28% 34% 38% B- F A+ F B F F D+ F
1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26 1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -3 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44
Jan
19		 Stonehill F F F C- F 45% 25% 29% C- F D+ B+ C B- A+ F A+ C C- A+ C- D 50% 5% 45% F D- B- D- C- A+ F F+ F
0.93 43% 15% 33% -13 0 0.76 23% 1.2 .28 10% .46 61% .28 0.90 55% 0% 33% -4 +3 1.00 25% 1.0 .25 31% .45 76% .34
Jan
23		 Chicago St. C A+ F A+ A+ 28% 22% 50% F A+ F F F C D- A+ C B C+ A+ D- C+ 26% 38% 36% B C+ F A- C- B+ B+ A+ A+
1.21 92% 30% 48% +18 -1 1.37 27% 0.7 .18 19% .30 88% .26 0.90 50% 25% 37% -5 -3 0.85 37% 0.7 .26 19% .20 45% .09
Jan
31		 New Haven D- B- F D+ D- 44% 18% 38% C D- D- B+ C- C+ B F C+ F F A+ F F 36% 20% 43% D+ F B- F D+ F+ F F F
1.04 64% 11% 32% -4 +1 0.96 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 67% .21 1.22 81% 0% 53% +13 0 1.27 19% 1.2 .22 15% .48 78% .37
Feb
5		 Mercyhurst B- C- B A+ A- 44% 18% 39% C- A- D+ F F+ D+ C- D D+ F A- F A B- 41% 22% 37% F C F F F C+ F F F
1.15 56% 40% 45% +6 +1 1.16 32% 0.8 .24 19% .35 68% .24 1.27 45% 58% 25% -6 0 0.91 49% 1.4 .67 17% .47 80% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Le Moyne C- F F A+ B- 29% 29% 43% F C+ D+ B C C- A F B- D F B F F 55% 7% 38% F F B- A+ B+ A+ F B F
1.09 38% 25% 54% +3 -2 1.05 29% 1.2 .34 16% .42 63% .26 1.12 87% 33% 44% +21 +3 1.50 23% 0.8 .18 27% .56 68% .38
Feb
9		 Chicago St. D- A+ A+ F F+ 32% 7% 61% C+ D- C- B- C F A+ C- A+ D- D A B C 38% 24% 38% F C- F F F B F D F
1.06 93% 67% 19% -1 +1 1.02 35% 1.2 .41 25% .53 75% .40 1.13 59% 27% 29% -5 -1 0.91 40% 1.2 .49 18% .57 79% .45



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 0.5 1.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 2.8 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 2.1 7.3 1.4 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 6.8 18.3 6.9 0.2 32.3 8th
9th 5.9 19.5 9.3 0.4 35.0 9th
10th 9.0 5.7 0.4 15.0 10th
Total 14.9 32.0 30.1 16.0 5.8 1.1 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-7 1.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 1.1
8-8 5.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.2 5.6
7-9 16.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.4 15.6
6-10 30.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.5 29.6
5-11 32.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.4 31.5
4-12 14.9% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 14.8
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.0%