Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -11.2 330
Results Rating -12.3 342
Consistency 0.15 151
Pace 66.0 249
Improvement +3.5 57

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F 360 D- D D- F C+
Defense C 172 C+ C F B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 181 F+ 49% 355 -3.5 304
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 220 C- 36% 238 -1.1 240
Three Pointers 43% 144 D- 30% 331 -1.9 247
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 162 F+ -6.5 355
1st FG Attempt D- 0.89 347
Second Chance D+ 27.1% 268 D- 0.90 338 D 0.24 322
Opponents' Steals D- 11.6% 341
Other Turnovers D 8.4% 316
Turnovers D- 20.0% 341
Freethrows F 0.23 359 D 69% 289 F 0.16 361
Total Offense F -11.2 360

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D 38% 323 F 16.5% 360
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 303 C+ 4.5% 151
Three Pointers B 91% 39 F 2.1% 354
Total D+ 52% 264 F 8.1% 353


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 53 B- 55% 101 +1.7 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 115 B 35% 61 -0.1 177
Three Pointers 34% 348 D+ 36% 265 -2.7 66
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.1 196 C+ -1.3 130
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 138
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 107 D+ 1.08 265 C 0.31 181
Turnovers from Steals F 5.8% 359
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 318
Turnovers F 12.0% 364
Freethrows C+ 0.28 121 B 70% 52 B- 0.20 96
Total Defense C -0.1 172

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 53 C+ 11.7% 141
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 155 C+ 6.1% 93
Three Pointers A 74% 10 D+ 0.3% 300
Total B+ 48% 31 B- 6.6% 98

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 304 16.8 88
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 297 0.17 167
Consistency 0.11 72 0.12 142
Improvement +1.6 113 +1.8 85

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 334 329 323
Results Rating Rank 345 343 318
Conference Record 8 - 8 8 - 8 8 - 8
Conference Finish 6 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9% 39% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 39% 0%
First Round3% 14% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 410 - 1410 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 90 @DePaul L 64 - 72 4% -8  6% 0 - 1 C +1 F+ -8 D C C- A +10 A+ A- F
 Tue, Nov 11 130 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 7% -12  11% 0 - 2 F -18 F -14 F C- F D+ -4 C- C+ F+
 Fri, Nov 14 265 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 21% -2  20% 0 - 3 C- -5 F -13 F+ F B A +9 A A F
 Sat, Nov 15 318 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 44% -3  12% 0 - 4 F -21 F -14 C- F F D- -7 F D+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 10 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0% 0 - 5 F+ -16 D- -6 B+ F F F+ -9 D- A F
 Fri, Nov 21 325 Lafayette W 74 - 70 59% +4  73% 1 - 5 D -10 F+ -9 B- F F C -1 B- C C+
 Wed, Nov 26 311 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 54% -5  3% 1 - 6 F -23 F -16 F F+ C D- -7 C C+ F
 Sun, Nov 30 216 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 15% -8  17% 1 - 7 D- -14 F -10 F A F D+ -4 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 353 @Bryant L 65 - 77 49% -4  33% 1 - 8 F -23 D- -7 D D- D+ F -18 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 352 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 48% -1  23% 1 - 9 D- -12 F -19 F F F A- +7 A C+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 77 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3% -12  0% 1 - 10 F -18 F -17 F B- F D -5 C B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 326 New Haven L 55 - 70 59% -5  42% 1 - 11 0 - 1 F -29 F -21 F C- D F+ -9 F+ D+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 314 @Wagner W 69 - 60 31% +2  53% 2 - 11 1 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 C- D C+ B- +3 B- C- D
 Thu, Jan 8 310 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 31% -6  0% 2 - 12 1 - 2 D- -13 D- -7 B- F F D- -7 F+ F B
 Sat, Jan 10 348 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 69% +3  65% 3 - 12 2 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 C+ C+ F F -11 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 290 @Mercyhurst W 62 - 57 OT 26% -2  11% 4 - 12 3 - 2 C +1 F -14 F+ D F+ A+ +15 B+ A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 61 - 63 53% +3  70% 4 - 13 3 - 3 D- -14 F -19 F F F B+ +5 A+ C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 219 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 66 32% +3  66% 4 - 14 3 - 4 D -10 F+ -10 C- C F C -0 A- A F
 Mon, Jan 26 310 Central Connecticut St. W 61 - 59 53% -3  8% 5 - 14 4 - 4 D -10 F -18 D F F A- +8 D+ B+ B+
 Thu, Jan 29 337 Fairleigh Dickinson W 58 - 57 65% +1  51% 6 - 14 5 - 4 D- -14 F -15 F C+ D+ C+ +1 A F F
 Sat, Jan 31 305 @Le Moyne W 65 - 54 29% +5  87% 7 - 14 6 - 4 B- +5 F -13 F+ F B+ A+ +18 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Feb 5 337 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 58 - 74 42% -10  0% 7 - 15 6 - 5 F -25 F -16 F D+ F+ F -10 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 54 - 61 16% +1  55% 7 - 16 6 - 6 D+ -8 F -13 F D- D- B +4 C- A+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 348 @Chicago St. L 55 - 68 46% -14  0% 7 - 17 6 - 7 F -23 F -12 B F F F -15 F F C
 Sat, Feb 14 314 Wagner L 57 - 68 54% -4  30% 7 - 18 6 - 8 F -23 F -21 F B+ F D+ -3 A- F+ F
 Thu, Feb 19 326 @New Haven L 51 - 64 36% -6  1% 7 - 19 6 - 9 F -21 F -21 F F+ C+ C -0 C C D-
 Sat, Feb 21 305 Le Moyne W 77 - 68 51% +5  66% 8 - 19 7 - 9 C- -3 D+ -3 D+ D A+ C+ +1 B+ C C
 Thu, Feb 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 103 - 77 74% +17  94% 9 - 19 8 - 9 B- +8 A +13 B+ A+ A+ D -6 B F F+
 Sat, Feb 28 290 Mercyhurst L 72 - 75 OT 47% +4  71% 9 - 20 8 - 10 D- -13 F -13 F C- B C+ +0 A- B+ F
 Wed, Mar 4 305 @Le Moyne W 81 - 71 29% +4  91% 10 - 20 C+ +4 C+ +3 B- D B+ C+ +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Mar 7 290 @Mercyhurst L 60 - 67 26%
Totals 10 - 21 8 - 10 -11 F -11 C+ F+ C+ C +0 D- D F



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F F+ C- D- F+ 39% 34% 43% C+ D- D+ D- D D- F D F C B- B D+ C+ 44% 22% 34% C- C+ C+ D+ C F C+ B B-
0.93 49% 36% 30% -6 0 0.89 27% 0.9 .24 20% .23 69% .16 1.09 55% 35% 36% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .31 12% .28 70% .16
Nov
7		 DePaul F+ F A- C- D- 35% 25% 40% C D F A+ C C- F+ F F A D A+ A+ A+ 42% 17% 41% D A+ A+ D- A- F F A+ F
0.84 33% 46% 33% -7 -1 0.87 16% 1.7 .27 21% .25 60% .15 0.95 64% 10% 21% -10 +1 0.83 20% 1.3 .25 9% .51 60% .30
Nov
11		 Rhode Island F F F F F 28% 14% 58% C- F C D C- F A- C+ B+ D+ D F A+ C 55% 14% 31% F+ C- B- C+ C+ F+ C- F D-
0.80 42% 17% 28% -13 0 0.77 32% 0.9 .29 29% .42 71% .30 1.12 64% 57% 19% -1 +2 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 15% .37 82% .30
Nov
14		 Fairfield F F+ F A F+ 49% 16% 35% C F+ F F F B F C F A A+ A+ B+ A+ 34% 20% 46% C A A+ F A F F D- F
0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12 0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25
Nov
15		 Loyola Maryland F C A+ F D+ 46% 15% 38% B+ C- C F F F F C F D- B- F F+ F+ 55% 7% 38% F F A- F D+ F A+ A+ A+
0.96 63% 63% 25% +1 +1 1.06 31% 0.8 .25 26% .08 75% .06 1.12 53% 75% 38% +2 +3 1.13 21% 1.4 .30 11% .14 38% .05
Nov
17		 Iowa St. D- A+ B- A- A 14% 39% 47% F B+ D- F F F F F F F+ F+ F C- F 42% 23% 36% B- D- A B- A F F B+ F
0.81 71% 40% 38% +5 -4 1.04 19% 0.5 .09 28% .04 50% .02 1.36 73% 67% 37% +14 0 1.30 30% 1.0 .30 10% .47 63% .30
Nov
21		 Lafayette F+ B A- C B- 45% 22% 33% B- B- B- F F F C+ F D C A A D B 54% 17% 29% D B- F A+ C C+ F B F
1.04 65% 45% 35% +5 0 1.14 34% 0.6 .20 21% .30 59% .18 0.98 46% 25% 36% -8 +2 0.90 38% 0.6 .21 17% .49 66% .32
Nov
26		 Umass Lowell F F F D- F 34% 20% 46% D F C F F+ C F B+ F D- D+ A B+ C+ 42% 13% 45% D- C C B- C+ F F A+ C
0.93 37% 27% 31% -12 0 0.79 31% 0.9 .27 13% .15 78% .12 1.09 59% 29% 29% -4 +1 0.96 32% 1.0 .32 10% .41 48% .19
Nov
30		 Quinnipiac F F B- F+ F 26% 26% 48% F F B+ A- A F F F F D+ D- A F F 51% 22% 27% D- F A A+ A+ D A F B
0.90 38% 38% 29% -8 -2 0.82 39% 1.2 .47 22% .15 50% .07 1.10 64% 25% 53% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.7 .17 14% .20 83% .17
Dec
2		 Bryant D- D B D+ D- 57% 14% 29% B D C- F D- D+ F B+ F F F D B- F 43% 10% 47% D F F F F F D- A+ C+
1.05 52% 43% 33% -3 +2 1.00 33% 0.7 .24 15% .17 78% .13 1.25 67% 40% 30% +1 +2 1.08 35% 1.5 .52 15% .32 59% .19
Dec
17		 New Hampshire F C+ F F F 49% 21% 30% C+ F C F F F A- A A A- A+ A F A 47% 15% 38% D+ A B C C+ F C- B- C-
0.85 62% 11% 23% -9 +1 0.86 30% 0.6 .18 31% .38 83% .32 0.86 24% 25% 40% -15 +1 0.75 22% 0.9 .20 13% .29 65% .19
Dec
22		 Syracuse F F F D F 32% 23% 45% D+ F C+ B- B- F A- F B- D C- A+ F C+ 45% 14% 41% D C C- A- B- F F A+ D+
0.78 14% 10% 30% -23 -1 0.55 33% 1.2 .40 24% .36 65% .23 1.24 64% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.12 33% 0.9 .31 8% .51 48% .25
Jan
2		 New Haven F F F F F 55% 10% 35% A F C C- C- D D D+ D- F+ C A F F 36% 23% 42% C+ F+ A F D+ F A+ B+ A
0.83 44% 20% 24% -15 +3 0.78 26% 1.1 .29 18% .22 75% .17 1.06 58% 25% 45% +4 0 1.09 13% 1.8 .23 12% .16 67% .10
Jan
4		 Wagner C F A+ A C- 47% 17% 36% C C- C- F+ D C+ C F D B- A B F B 52% 24% 24% D- B- C- C- C- D A+ F B-
1.13 45% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 29% 0.9 .26 13% .36 63% .23 0.98 42% 33% 42% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 16% .18 100% .18
Jan
8		 Central Connecticut St. D- D- A+ A- C 55% 6% 39% A B- C+ F F F D- F F D- D- D+ F F 28% 40% 33% B+ F+ B- F F B F F+ F
1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13 1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38
Jan
10		 Chicago St. D+ A+ F B- C+ 33% 10% 58% C C+ A F C+ F B- D- C F B+ C- F D+ 39% 35% 26% C- D+ A+ F F F D- F+ F+
1.16 76% 20% 37% +7 +1 1.17 46% 0.9 .43 23% .37 71% .27 1.12 45% 40% 40% -2 -2 0.95 15% 2.6 .39 8% .31 81% .25
Jan
17		 Mercyhurst F C F F F 53% 13% 33% B+ F+ F+ B- D F+ A- F D A+ C A+ A+ B+ 41% 43% 16% B- B+ D+ A+ A+ D- C A+ B+
0.89 58% 0% 27% -9 +2 0.89 25% 1.1 .28 21% .44 54% .24 0.82 57% 29% 22% -7 -3 0.82 28% 0.3 .09 13% .21 54% .12
Jan
19		 St. Francis (PA) F F+ F D+ F 50% 5% 45% A- F F+ F+ F F A+ B A+ B+ A+ A+ C A+ 45% 25% 29% D+ A+ B F C- F F A F
0.90 55% 0% 33% -4 +3 1.00 25% 1.0 .25 31% .45 76% .34 0.93 43% 15% 33% -13 0 0.76 23% 1.2 .28 10% .46 61% .28
Jan
23		 LIU Brooklyn F+ C+ A F D 55% 9% 36% A C- C- B- C F F F F C B+ B+ C B+ 31% 29% 40% A- A- A+ F A F C D C-
0.97 58% 50% 24% -5 +3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 23% .20 60% .12 1.02 50% 33% 33% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.1 .22 9% .29 71% .20
Jan
26		 Central Connecticut St. F A+ A F D- 47% 9% 44% B D D+ F F F A+ F A+ A- B C+ F C- 47% 31% 22% F+ D+ A+ C- B+ B+ A+ A+ A+
0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30 0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04
Jan
29		 Fairleigh Dickinson F F A+ F F 40% 29% 31% D F B D+ C+ D+ F B D- C+ A+ C- A+ A 36% 34% 30% A A D+ F F F A+ F A+
0.97 44% 54% 21% -7 -1 0.87 32% 0.9 .29 17% .26 77% .20 0.95 42% 39% 19% -12 -2 0.74 34% 1.2 .42 12% .04 100% .04
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Le Moyne F F A+ D- F 45% 13% 42% B+ F+ F+ F F B+ D B C- A+ A+ F+ A A+ 43% 19% 38% C A+ A+ A+ A+ D- A+ A+ A+
0.91 32% 71% 30% -10 +2 0.85 23% 0.4 .09 11% .28 78% .22 0.76 36% 45% 27% -12 +1 0.79 14% 0.5 .07 17% .22 62% .13
Feb
5		 Fairleigh Dickinson F D- D- F F 26% 35% 40% F F D- C+ D+ F+ A+ F A F D+ C- C- F+ 37% 27% 37% B- D- D F F F D+ F F+
0.91 55% 33% 24% -9 -3 0.79 22% 1.0 .22 19% .50 62% .31 1.16 61% 38% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.3 .44 13% .31 82% .25
Feb
7		 LIU Brooklyn F D- F F F 43% 17% 39% C F C+ F D- D- D- A+ B- B B- D- F C- 57% 28% 15% D+ C- D A+ A+ C- A- F+ B-
0.88 50% 25% 22% -13 +1 0.78 36% 0.8 .27 21% .27 92% .25 1.00 54% 46% 43% +2 0 1.07 38% 0.4 .15 20% .22 73% .16
Feb
12		 Chicago St. F C- A+ A+ B 39% 5% 55% B B F F F F F D F F F F B- F 35% 35% 30% C F F+ F F C C F D+
0.98 60% 50% 43% +9 +2 1.24 21% 0.6 .13 25% .26 73% .19 1.22 67% 53% 31% +7 -2 1.12 35% 1.5 .52 16% .26 83% .21
Feb
14		 Wagner F F C F F 36% 16% 48% C- F C- A+ B+ F F B+ F D+ C- A+ D+ B+ 36% 36% 28% A A- F B F+ F D F+ F+
0.87 28% 38% 25% -17 0 0.68 28% 1.5 .41 21% .25 77% .19 1.03 56% 17% 36% -8 -2 0.82 45% 0.9 .43 14% .32 78% .25
Feb
19		 New Haven F F B D- F 42% 18% 40% C F F C F+ C+ F+ F F C C+ F+ A+ C+ 55% 18% 27% F C F A+ C D- B D B-
0.78 29% 44% 30% -14 +1 0.76 18% 1.1 .21 15% .20 45% .09 0.98 57% 44% 21% -5 +2 0.96 31% 0.6 .19 15% .22 75% .16
Feb
21		 Le Moyne D+ B- D+ F D+ 43% 19% 39% C+ D+ C- F+ D A+ B+ D B- C+ A F A- B+ 33% 18% 49% B- B+ C+ C C C F B+ F+
1.09 61% 30% 29% -3 +1 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 9% .37 71% .26 0.97 47% 56% 28% -5 0 0.92 24% 1.0 .24 20% .43 67% .28
Feb
26		 St. Francis (PA) A B F A+ B 46% 7% 47% B+ B+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F+ D A- A D+ A- 54% 21% 25% F B D F F F+ F A+ C+
1.41 69% 25% 44% +12 +2 1.30 34% 1.7 .59 11% .25 81% .20 1.05 48% 25% 36% -7 +1 0.89 30% 1.5 .44 15% .35 50% .18
Feb
28		 Mercyhurst F F F C+ F 44% 19% 37% C F D- A C- B B+ F C- C+ A B+ C- B 27% 53% 20% A+ A- C A+ B+ F F D+ F
0.94 38% 20% 35% -12 +1 0.80 26% 1.3 .33 16% .43 61% .26 0.98 44% 34% 33% -6 -5 0.80 27% 0.8 .20 8% .35 76% .27
Mar
4		 Le Moyne C+ D- B+ B+ B 21% 17% 62% D B- F+ C+ D B+ F+ C+ D- C+ B A+ A- A+ 38% 18% 45% C+ A+ F F F F C- D D+
1.15 50% 40% 39% +3 -1 1.07 23% 1.1 .26 11% .26 75% .19 1.01 52% 10% 28% -11 0 0.80 32% 1.2 .39 16% .34 75% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 100.0% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 8.7 91.4
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 8.7% 8.7% 0.0% 16.0 91.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.7% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 13.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 77.9%