Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.9 265
Results Rating -3.7 232
Consistency 0.17 261
Pace 67.7 202
Improvement +1.6 130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 230 D C C+ D- C-
Defense D+ 285 D+ C- D+ C+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 162 D- 50% 343 -2.8 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 122 C+ 40% 111 +1.5 98
Three Pointers 38% 242 C- 33% 242 -2.4 262
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 224 D -3.4 301
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 296
Second Chance B- 33.3% 92 D 0.94 308 C 0.31 166
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 132
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 167
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 140
Freethrows D- 0.26 329 D+ 70% 263 D- 0.18 332
Total Offense C- -2.1 230

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 269 F+ 14.9% 346
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 294 C+ 4.4% 142
Three Pointers F 72% 355 D- 1.6% 332
Total D- 46% 338 D- 7.5% 340


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 8 C 59% 197 +5.3 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 338 C+ 36% 111 -2.4 17
Three Pointers 38% 278 D+ 36% 277 -0.6 157
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 361 C- +1.0 218
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 260
Second Chance C 30.8% 210 C- 1.08 259 C- 0.33 239
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 230
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 264
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 260
Freethrows C+ 0.29 145 C- 73% 248 C+ 0.21 151
Total Defense D+ -3.8 285

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 91 C- 10.0% 211
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 37% 334 D+ 3.1% 280
Three Pointers F+ 91% 350 D 0.2% 335
Total C- 57% 213 C- 5.3% 199

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 157 17.4 209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 221 0.17 166
Consistency 0.15 343 0.15 331
Improvement -0.2 199 +1.8 87

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 278 267 248
Results Rating Rank 249 234 208
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 11 - 9
Conference Finish 6 6 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 6% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 2% 0%
First Round4% 5% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 417 - 719 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 119 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 14% +2  54% 0 - 1 C- -2 D- -6 F F A+ B +4 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 333 @NJIT W 74 - 53 61% +6  62% 1 - 1 B+ +12 F+ -8 F C+ F A+ +19 A A B+
 Mon, Nov 10 52 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 4% -10  2% 1 - 2 D -9 D+ -3 C D- D+ D -6 A D- F
 Fri, Nov 14 330 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 79% +2  70% 2 - 2 D- -12 F -11 F F+ A C- -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 318 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 74% +4  97% 3 - 2 D -10 C +1 D- A A F -11 F A B-
 Sat, Nov 22 305 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 49% +12  94% 4 - 2 B +8 A+ +19 A+ B+ A F -11 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 190 Columbia L 77 - 106 46% -18  0% 4 - 3 F -34 C- -2 D C+ C F -32 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 352 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 85% +0  58% 5 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 C- C D F+ -9 C- B F
 Fri, Dec 5 324 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 57% -4  4% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D- -12 F -18 F F F B+ +6 C A A
 Sun, Dec 7 174 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 23% -10  0% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -9 D -5 C F D+ D -5 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 180 Monmouth W 73 - 65 44% +0  35% 6 - 5 C+ +4 B- +4 B- B- A C +0 C B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 310 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 51% +14  82% 7 - 5 B- +8 B+ +9 A C+ D+ C -1 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 230 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 54% +1  51% 7 - 6 0 - 3 D -11 F+ -8 F C+ B- C- -3 C+ A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 338 @Canisius L 81 - 85 63% -4  4% 7 - 7 0 - 4 D- -13 B+ +8 D B B+ F -21 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 334 @Niagara W 83 - 75 61% +5  93% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -1 A+ +17 B B- A+ F -16 F C F
 Fri, Jan 9 356 Rider W 68 - 62 87% +8  93% 9 - 7 2 - 4 D- -12 D- -8 F A+ A D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 324 Manhattan W 98 - 62 77% +20  98% 10 - 7 3 - 4 A +22 A- +11 A D+ B- A +11 A+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 202 @Marist L 67 - 82 26% -13  0% 10 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C +1 F A- A- F -16 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 208 @Siena L 77 - 85 27% -8  5% 10 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -8 B+ +8 C A+ B F -16 F B- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 334 Niagara W 62 - 61 80% +3  75% 11 - 9 4 - 6 D- -14 F -16 F C- D- B- +2 C A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 338 Canisius W 61 - 55 81% +7  87% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -10 D D+ F B- +2 B D B+
 Fri, Jan 30 242 @Iona W 71 - 70 34% -2  25% 13 - 9 6 - 6 C -1 B- +5 A- D D+ D -6 C- F C-
 Sun, Feb 1 216 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 51% +2  66% 13 - 10 6 - 7 D- -13 F+ -10 F D+ A D+ -3 D D- B
 Thu, Feb 5 289 @Sacred Heart W 92 - 87 44% +8  98% 14 - 10 7 - 7 C +1 A- +10 A- A- D+ F -10 C F F
 Sat, Feb 7 202 Marist W 63 - 60 48% +4  85% 15 - 10 8 - 7 C- -2 C- -0 C D A+ C -1 B- D B
 Sun, Feb 15 230 @St. Peter's L 74 - 83 31% -14  0% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D -10 C +1 C- A D F -11 F A- A-
 Fri, Feb 20 289 Sacred Heart W 78 - 68 67% +1  44% 16 - 11 9 - 8 C -0 D+ -4 B- F B B +4 B F+ C
 Sun, Feb 22 216 @Quinnipiac W 85 - 79 29% +2  68% 17 - 11 10 - 8 B- +6 A +14 C+ A+ C+ D- -8 D D- D-
 Fri, Feb 27 208 Siena W 72 - 58 49% +12  97% 18 - 11 11 - 8 B +8 D -6 C- A+ F A+ +15 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Mar 1 273 Mount St. Mary's L 47 - 69 63% -14  0% 18 - 12 11 - 9 F -31 F -27 F C- F D+ -5 D- F B+
 Thu, Mar 5 324 Manhattan W 80 - 75 68%
Totals 19 - 12 11 - 9 -6 C- -2 F D C- D+ -4 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C- D 39% 42% 38% C- D B- D C C+ D- D+ D- D+ C C+ D+ C- 47% 15% 38% F+ D+ C C- C- D+ C+ C- C+
1.06 50% 40% 33% -3 0 0.95 33% 0.9 .31 16% .26 70% .18 1.14 59% 36% 36% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .33 15% .29 73% .19
Nov
3		 Penn St. D- B C F F 38% 13% 48% B- F C- F F A+ F A+ D B C+ B A- A- 52% 15% 33% D- B A D+ B+ F F+ A+ C+
0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13 1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24
Nov
8		 NJIT F+ F C+ C F 48% 16% 36% B- F B D+ C+ F A- D- B- A+ A- A A+ A+ 27% 20% 54% C- A A+ A- A B+ A+ B A+
0.99 33% 38% 33% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 21% .41 67% .27 0.71 47% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.73 16% 0.7 .12 21% .20 67% .14
Nov
10		 Seton Hall D+ F C+ A+ C+ 30% 26% 44% D- C C- F D- D+ A+ A A+ D A+ F A+ A+ 59% 16% 25% F A C- F+ D- F F F F
0.86 23% 36% 42% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.6 .18 25% .45 78% .35 1.20 43% 50% 23% -11 +2 0.84 37% 1.2 .44 10% .45 82% .37
Nov
14		 Stonehill F F F F+ F 34% 20% 46% C- F F C+ F+ A B+ B+ A- C- B A+ F C- 49% 16% 35% D- D+ A+ B A+ F A- D B
0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25 0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12
Nov
16		 Loyola Maryland C D C+ F+ F+ 44% 25% 32% C D- B- A+ A A C F D- F F F B F 49% 13% 38% D F A A A B- C- D D+
1.19 56% 43% 28% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.4 .50 10% .30 58% .17 1.15 77% 57% 30% +9 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 18% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 Le Moyne A+ A B A+ A+ 47% 25% 28% C- A+ A D+ B+ A B A+ A F B- A+ F+ B- 49% 11% 40% F+ C+ F F F B- F B+ F
1.37 68% 38% 47% +10 0 1.23 41% 1.0 .41 10% .36 87% .31 1.18 55% 0% 39% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.6 .66 21% .54 67% .36
Nov
26		 Columbia C- F B- C- D 38% 24% 38% D+ D A- D- C+ C D D- D- F D+ A+ F F 63% 2% 35% F F F F F F C+ F F+
1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18 1.49 62% 0% 53% +11 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25
Nov
30		 New Hampshire D+ F A A+ C- 45% 24% 31% C- C- A F C D C F F+ F+ B- A B+ C+ 65% 8% 27% F C- F A+ B F F B- F
1.11 41% 50% 47% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 17% .32 59% .19 1.05 52% 25% 29% -8 +4 0.94 32% 0.5 .17 11% .38 64% .24
Dec
5		 Manhattan F F B- F F 25% 28% 47% F F B F F F F A+ F B+ B- F A- B- 52% 12% 36% F C B- A+ A A F C- F
0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10 0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30
Dec
7		 Merrimack D D F A- C 38% 23% 38% C- C C F F D+ D+ F F+ D D+ D F F 40% 16% 44% B- F A A+ A+ D+ F D+ F
0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20 1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40
Dec
14		 Monmouth B- F+ C- A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C+ B- A D- B- A F F F C C A A- B 56% 13% 31% F C B B+ B+ D+ A+ D- A+
1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02 1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07
Dec
18		 Central Connecticut St. B+ C+ A A+ A 40% 15% 45% C- A C B C+ D+ D D D C A+ B C- A+ 30% 22% 48% F+ A D F F F B- F C
1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17 1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19
Dec
29		 St. Peter's F+ F D+ F+ F 48% 12% 40% B+ F D- A+ C+ B- F+ C- D- C- D A+ A+ B 57% 10% 33% F C+ F A+ A D- A+ F A
0.98 40% 33% 29% -13 +2 0.81 30% 1.4 .41 18% .34 74% .25 1.04 61% 0% 21% -9 +3 0.90 42% 0.6 .23 15% .19 82% .16
Jan
2		 Canisius B+ C- F D+ D- 43% 20% 37% C D A D B B+ A B- A F A+ A+ F F 34% 16% 50% D- F D+ F F F F D+ F
1.21 59% 30% 32% -3 0 0.98 40% 0.9 .38 12% .39 74% .29 1.27 35% 25% 52% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.4 .40 9% .44 74% .33
Jan
4		 Niagara A+ C+ A A- B 44% 25% 31% C B A- D+ B- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 59% 4% 37% F F D- A- C F A+ F A+
1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34 1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08
Jan
9		 Rider D- F F F F 43% 13% 45% C- F B A+ A+ A A+ B A+ D+ D F B F 39% 33% 29% C- F B A+ A+ C- F A+ C-
1.09 30% 17% 24% -22 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28 0.99 58% 50% 29% +1 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19
Jan
14		 Manhattan A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% D A D+ C D+ B- A+ F B+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C A+ B B B B F C F
1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23 0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32
Jan
17		 Marist C D C F F 30% 32% 38% D- F B- A+ A- A- A+ B- A+ F F C- F F 27% 38% 36% A+ F F F F B F D+ F
1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34 1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32
Jan
19		 Siena B+ A+ D+ F C+ 28% 28% 44% D- C D+ A+ A+ B D A+ C F F F F F 35% 35% 30% B+ F B C B- A- F F F
1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20 1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31
Jan
22		 Niagara F F A D- F 41% 20% 39% C+ F C D+ C- D- F F F B- B F C- C+ 54% 8% 38% F C B A+ A C- A D+ A-
0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09 0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Canisius F D B+ D D+ 43% 26% 31% D+ D A F D+ F C+ F D- B- B+ A+ A+ A 58% 8% 34% F B F A+ D B+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 56% 45% 31% -1 0 1.00 41% 0.7 .27 20% .33 56% .18 0.90 45% 25% 24% -14 +3 0.80 45% 0.7 .30 23% .17 38% .06
Jan
30		 Iona B- B- B A A- 41% 15% 43% B- A- A+ F D D+ C F C- D A- B F C- 40% 13% 47% D- C- F C- F C- F+ F F
1.14 63% 43% 40% +7 +1 1.17 51% 0.5 .24 18% .27 64% .18 1.12 47% 33% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 18% .33 82% .27
Feb
1		 Quinnipiac F+ F C- A- F 52% 21% 27% C+ F B+ F D+ A F+ F F D+ D F A+ D+ 62% 17% 21% F D B- F D- B A+ B- A+
0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12 1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11
Feb
5		 Sacred Heart A- B+ A+ A A- 43% 11% 45% B- A- C- A+ A- D+ C+ B B- F B+ C- D+ C 30% 15% 56% C- C D F F F F A+ F+
1.29 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.28 31% 1.4 .45 15% .27 75% .20 1.22 50% 38% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.6 .49 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Marist C- A+ C+ F C 27% 21% 52% C C D+ D D A+ F A D- C A F B B+ 48% 17% 35% F B- F B+ D B D+ F F+
1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19 0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24
Feb
15		 St. Peter's C D+ F B+ D+ 58% 24% 18% C+ C- B A A D A+ C A F C- C F F 45% 20% 35% D- F B- A A- A- F F F
1.08 54% 27% 38% -4 +1 0.96 41% 1.2 .50 22% .50 74% .37 1.21 56% 38% 57% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.8 .25 22% .61 85% .52
Feb
20		 Sacred Heart D+ F+ A- A+ B+ 31% 28% 41% F B- F+ F F B B- F D B F+ A+ A- B+ 35% 13% 52% D B B- F F+ C B+ F+ B
1.13 53% 47% 50% +11 -1 1.20 24% 0.4 .11 12% .28 53% .15 0.99 67% 0% 30% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.5 .35 19% .21 83% .18
Feb
22		 Quinnipiac A C A+ F B- 49% 29% 22% D+ C+ A A A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ D D+ 51% 12% 37% F D F B- D- D- F A+ D
1.24 58% 64% 18% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.3 .54 16% .40 87% .35 1.16 54% 33% 37% -1 +2 1.04 43% 0.9 .40 13% .45 52% .24
Feb
27		 Siena D D A D C- 42% 32% 26% D C- A+ A- A+ F D+ F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% C- A+ A+ F B+ F+ A F A-
1.03 52% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 44% 1.1 .50 24% .25 46% .11 0.83 55% 27% 14% -15 -1 0.70 15% 1.5 .22 13% .20 83% .16
Mar
1		 Mount St. Mary's F F F F F 36% 27% 38% D+ F B- F C- F A+ D- A- D+ D A C+ D 52% 8% 40% F D- C+ F F B+ A A+ A+
0.70 19% 25% 18% -27 -1 0.47 33% 0.9 .28 22% .44 70% .31 1.03 64% 25% 32% +1 +3 1.08 28% 1.5 .41 25% .20 50% .10



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 4.2% 4.2% 15.6 0.1 1.5 2.7 95.8
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.6 95.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 15.6 1.2 35.2 63.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.5%
Lose Out 31.8%