Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#290
Expected Predictive Rating-3.7#226
Pace70.1#168
Improvement-3.3#349

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#274
First Shot-5.1#313
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#115
Layup/Dunks-5.3#338
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#223
Freethrows-1.4#259
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#281
First Shot-3.7#298
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#165
Layups/Dunks-6.8#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#94
Freethrows-1.7#279
Improvement-3.2#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 3.5% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 46.3% 62.1% 37.2%
.500 or above in Conference 41.2% 57.4% 32.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.7% 2.1% 7.7%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 1.0%
First Round1.9% 2.9% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 62 - 9
Quad 414 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 96 @Penn St. L 68-76 8%     0 - 1 +0.3 -2.0 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 8 348 @NJIT W 74-53 58%     1 - 1 +11.7 -5.6 +15.9
  Mon, Nov 10 64 @Seton Hall L 59-82 5%     1 - 2 -11.4 -4.5 -7.4
  Fri, Nov 14 339 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 75%     2 - 2 -12.2 -11.4 -1.0
  Sun, Nov 16 321 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 68%     3 - 2 -9.1 +3.8 -12.9
  Sat, Nov 22 306 @Le Moyne W 97-83 42%     4 - 2 +8.9 +17.3 -8.5
  Wed, Nov 26 130 Columbia L 77-106 27%     4 - 3 -29.9 +1.4 -30.9
  Sun, Nov 30 335 New Hampshire W 72-68 73%     5 - 3 -9.6 +0.4 -9.6
  Fri, Dec 5 308 @Manhattan L 66-70 42%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -9.2 -14.8 +5.7
  Sun, Dec 7 283 @Merrimack L 67-71 36%    
  Sun, Dec 14 207 Monmouth L 72-73 45%    
  Thu, Dec 18 243 @Central Connecticut St. L 66-72 30%    
  Mon, Dec 29 326 St. Peter's W 72-67 69%    
  Fri, Jan 2 355 @Canisius W 70-67 61%    
  Sun, Jan 4 342 @Niagara W 69-68 54%    
  Fri, Jan 9 336 Rider W 74-68 71%    
  Wed, Jan 14 308 Manhattan W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 158 @Marist L 60-70 19%    
  Mon, Jan 19 156 @Siena L 65-75 18%    
  Thu, Jan 22 342 Niagara W 72-65 74%    
  Sat, Jan 24 355 Canisius W 73-64 79%    
  Fri, Jan 30 176 @Iona L 74-83 21%    
  Sun, Feb 1 154 Quinnipiac L 75-79 35%    
  Thu, Feb 5 256 @Sacred Heart L 77-82 32%    
  Sat, Feb 7 158 Marist L 63-67 36%    
  Sun, Feb 15 326 @St. Peter's L 69-70 48%    
  Fri, Feb 20 256 Sacred Heart W 80-79 53%    
  Sun, Feb 22 154 @Quinnipiac L 72-82 18%    
  Fri, Feb 27 156 Siena L 68-72 36%    
  Sun, Mar 1 304 Mount St. Mary's W 75-71 63%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 4.1 0.9 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.1 4.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 5.1 5.1 1.5 0.1 13.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.9 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 10.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 7.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.5 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.9 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 8.7 11.8 13.6 14.1 13.0 10.9 7.8 4.9 2.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 88.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0
16-4 63.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 27.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 21.6% 21.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.5% 18.5% 18.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-5 1.1% 14.5% 14.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 2.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.5
13-7 4.9% 9.5% 9.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 4.4
12-8 7.8% 4.5% 4.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 7.5
11-9 10.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.1 0.3 10.5
10-10 13.0% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.0 0.3 12.7
9-11 14.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 13.9
8-12 13.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.5
7-13 11.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.7
6-14 8.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-15 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
4-16 3.0% 3.0
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 97.6 0.0%