Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.0#318
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#300
Pace65.6#253
Improvement-0.2#194

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#242
First Shot-3.1#270
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks-4.3#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#158
Freethrows-2.7#327
Improvement-0.7#221

Defense
Total Defense-6.3#341
First Shot-5.5#338
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#256
Layups/Dunks-5.9#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#180
Freethrows-1.1#264
Improvement+0.4#156
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.9% 6.0% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 18.9% 32.2% 11.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.0% 6.3% 19.6%
First Four1.4% 2.0% 1.1%
First Round0.8% 1.2% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 34.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 411 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 109   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 9%     0 - 1 -31.8 -15.8 -13.2
  Nov 09, 2024 68   @ Georgetown L 57-69 4%     0 - 2 -1.1 -6.6 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2024 351   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 55%     1 - 2 -4.2 -8.9 +5.1
  Nov 19, 2024 186   Drexel L 61-67 31%     1 - 3 -9.9 -5.9 -4.5
  Nov 23, 2024 87   Yale L 66-91 8%     1 - 4 -18.5 +5.3 -27.7
  Nov 24, 2024 212   Vermont W 67-66 27%     2 - 4 -1.7 +4.1 -5.7
  Dec 01, 2024 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 64%     3 - 4 -8.6 -0.7 -7.9
  Dec 04, 2024 294   Rider W 78-75 55%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -7.3 +4.9 -12.1
  Dec 08, 2024 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 29%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -10.2 +21.1 -31.2
  Dec 18, 2024 230   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 41%     4 - 6 -7.6 -3.4 -4.3
  Dec 21, 2024 268   @ Monmouth L 74-88 29%     4 - 7 -17.3 +0.3 -17.7
  Dec 28, 2024 203   @ Columbia L 72-85 18%     4 - 8 -12.3 +2.4 -15.9
  Jan 03, 2025 206   @ Merrimack L 54-67 18%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -12.4 -7.6 -6.8
  Jan 10, 2025 253   Iona W 68-64 46%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -4.0 -4.6 +0.7
  Jan 12, 2025 217   @ Marist L 51-61 21%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -10.4 -9.4 -2.9
  Jan 16, 2025 311   Niagara W 70-66 59%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -7.3 -1.4 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 346   Canisius L 67-78 71%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -25.7 -9.6 -17.2
  Jan 23, 2025 297   @ Manhattan L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 25, 2025 206   Merrimack L 65-69 36%    
  Jan 31, 2025 183   @ Quinnipiac L 68-79 15%    
  Feb 02, 2025 253   @ Iona L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 06, 2025 217   Marist L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 296   Sacred Heart W 76-75 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 231   @ St. Peter's L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 16, 2025 297   Manhattan W 77-76 56%    
  Feb 21, 2025 294   @ Rider L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 28, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's L 70-71 51%    
  Mar 02, 2025 296   @ Sacred Heart L 73-77 34%    
  Mar 06, 2025 272   @ Siena L 67-72 29%    
  Mar 08, 2025 183   Quinnipiac L 71-76 33%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 3.9 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 2.2 0.4 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 1.3 6.0 2.2 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.5 5.4 4.5 0.3 10.7 8th
9th 0.2 3.6 7.2 1.4 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 7.5 3.5 0.1 13.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 6.6 6.0 0.8 0.0 14.8 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 5.3 5.5 1.2 0.0 13.5 12th
13th 0.6 2.4 2.8 0.9 0.0 6.7 13th
Total 0.8 3.8 9.6 14.9 18.8 18.4 15.0 9.9 5.4 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 30.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.3% 19.2% 19.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.9% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 0.8
12-8 2.4% 8.1% 8.1% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.2
11-9 5.4% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.4 5.0
10-10 9.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 9.7
9-11 15.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.8
8-12 18.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.2
7-13 18.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 18.5
6-14 14.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.9
5-15 9.6% 9.6
4-16 3.8% 3.8
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%