Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#194
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#240
Pace60.4#351
Improvement-0.5#220

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#293
First Shot-1.9#227
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#307
Layup/Dunks-4.2#317
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#54
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement-0.6#236

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#107
First Shot+1.3#135
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#82
Layups/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#107
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement+0.1#179
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.8% 19.7% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 68.2% 77.0% 54.3%
.500 or above in Conference 86.7% 88.9% 83.2%
Conference Champion 23.2% 25.7% 19.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 1.1%
First Four2.9% 2.4% 3.8%
First Round16.6% 18.8% 13.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Miami (OH) (Home) - 61.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 413 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 137   @ UAB W 67-62 28%     1 - 0 +9.3 +0.4 +9.5
  Nov 06, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 43-94 1%     1 - 1 -25.3 -20.8 -4.7
  Nov 09, 2024 217   @ Merrimack L 51-65 43%     1 - 2 -13.8 -13.6 -1.5
  Nov 15, 2024 257   @ Iona L 59-62 53%     1 - 3 -5.5 -10.5 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2024 324   Buffalo W 78-67 84%     2 - 3 -1.2 +5.2 -5.5
  Nov 23, 2024 207   Delaware W 75-71 53%     3 - 3 +1.6 +0.4 +1.3
  Nov 24, 2024 292   Fairfield L 66-67 69%     3 - 4 -7.8 -5.0 -3.0
  Nov 30, 2024 158   Northeastern W 68-64 55%     4 - 4 +1.0 -2.8 +3.9
  Dec 03, 2024 159   Brown L 53-60 56%     4 - 5 -10.1 -8.9 -2.8
  Dec 07, 2024 105   @ Yale L 50-65 20%     4 - 6 -7.5 -15.6 +6.3
  Dec 15, 2024 224   @ Colgate L 60-65 45%     4 - 7 -5.3 -5.5 -0.4
  Dec 18, 2024 195   Miami (OH) W 65-62 61%    
  Dec 21, 2024 306   @ Dartmouth W 66-63 62%    
  Jan 04, 2025 354   @ New Hampshire W 66-58 78%    
  Jan 09, 2025 151   @ Umass Lowell L 66-71 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 176   @ Bryant L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 16, 2025 310   Binghamton W 67-57 81%    
  Jan 23, 2025 351   NJIT W 67-53 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 255   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 310   @ Binghamton W 64-60 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 213   Maine W 63-59 64%    
  Feb 08, 2025 248   @ Albany W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 13, 2025 354   New Hampshire W 69-55 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 213   @ Maine L 60-62 43%    
  Feb 20, 2025 176   Bryant W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 22, 2025 151   Umass Lowell W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 27, 2025 351   @ NJIT W 64-56 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 248   Albany W 71-65 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.6 6.4 7.3 4.7 1.6 0.3 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.8 8.6 6.2 1.7 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.4 4.8 0.7 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.1 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 5.1 2.6 0.2 10.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.6 0.2 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.8 10.6 14.1 16.5 16.3 13.3 9.0 4.9 1.6 0.3 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
15-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
14-2 97.0% 4.7    4.2 0.5 0.0
13-3 81.0% 7.3    5.0 2.2 0.1 0.0
12-4 48.1% 6.4    2.5 3.0 0.9 0.0
11-5 15.7% 2.6    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 13.9 6.9 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 53.1% 53.1% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 1.6% 46.4% 46.4% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.9
14-2 4.9% 36.6% 36.6% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 3.1
13-3 9.0% 31.8% 31.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 6.2
12-4 13.3% 25.7% 25.7% 14.9 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.6 9.9
11-5 16.3% 19.7% 19.7% 15.3 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.3 13.1
10-6 16.5% 14.5% 14.5% 15.6 0.1 0.9 1.4 14.1
9-7 14.1% 10.7% 10.7% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.2 12.6
8-8 10.6% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.1 0.9 9.7
7-9 6.8% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.4 6.4
6-10 3.8% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.2 3.6
5-11 1.7% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 1.7
4-12 0.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-13 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-14 0.1% 0.1
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 6.7 6.2 82.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.0 15.0 70.0 15.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0%