Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#211
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#214
Pace60.4#351
Improvement-0.2#192

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#308
First Shot-2.3#238
After Offensive Rebound-2.6#324
Layup/Dunks-4.2#320
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#213
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#97
Freethrows+0.1#165
Improvement+0.1#171

Defense
Total Defense+2.2#107
First Shot+1.5#126
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks-1.5#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#48
Freethrows-0.5#220
Improvement-0.3#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.8% 16.2% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 76.9% 79.5% 52.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 96.4% 85.1%
Conference Champion 18.3% 19.4% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four4.1% 4.0% 5.0%
First Round14.0% 14.5% 9.1%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: NJIT (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 413 - 717 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 97   @ UAB W 67-62 16%     1 - 0 +13.0 +1.4 +12.0
  Nov 06, 2024 2   @ Auburn L 43-94 1%     1 - 1 -25.2 -20.5 -4.9
  Nov 09, 2024 206   @ Merrimack L 51-65 37%     1 - 2 -13.4 -13.6 -1.2
  Nov 15, 2024 253   @ Iona L 59-62 49%     1 - 3 -5.5 -9.5 +3.9
  Nov 19, 2024 329   Buffalo W 78-67 84%     2 - 3 -2.3 +5.7 -7.1
  Nov 23, 2024 196   Delaware W 75-71 46%     3 - 3 +2.4 -0.7 +3.1
  Nov 24, 2024 318   Fairfield L 66-67 73%     3 - 4 -10.0 -5.5 -4.6
  Nov 30, 2024 200   Northeastern W 68-64 57%     4 - 4 -0.6 -4.4 +3.9
  Dec 03, 2024 212   Brown L 53-60 61%     4 - 5 -12.5 -9.8 -4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 88   @ Yale L 50-65 14%     4 - 6 -5.8 -13.8 +6.2
  Dec 15, 2024 198   @ Colgate L 60-65 36%     4 - 7 -3.9 -4.2 -0.3
  Dec 18, 2024 153   Miami (OH) W 75-67 47%     5 - 7 +6.0 +1.4 +4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 274   @ Dartmouth L 54-84 54%     5 - 8 -33.7 -17.1 -17.7
  Jan 04, 2025 351   @ New Hampshire W 60-40 76%     6 - 8 1 - 0 +9.9 -6.9 +19.5
  Jan 09, 2025 188   @ Umass Lowell W 67-63 34%     7 - 8 2 - 0 +5.5 -3.0 +8.7
  Jan 11, 2025 157   @ Bryant L 53-73 29%     7 - 9 2 - 1 -16.8 -10.9 -8.6
  Jan 16, 2025 322   Binghamton W 72-64 81%     8 - 9 3 - 1 -4.1 +2.7 -5.6
  Jan 23, 2025 355   NJIT W 66-52 90%    
  Jan 25, 2025 271   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-69 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 322   @ Binghamton W 65-61 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 202   Maine W 62-60 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 260   @ Albany W 67-66 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 351   New Hampshire W 69-56 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 202   @ Maine L 59-63 35%    
  Feb 20, 2025 157   Bryant L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 188   Umass Lowell W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 355   @ NJIT W 63-55 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 271   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 72-71 53%    
  Mar 04, 2025 260   Albany W 70-64 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.1 7.1 3.8 0.9 18.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 9.2 10.5 3.7 0.4 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 10.7 9.4 1.9 0.0 26.3 3rd
4th 0.3 3.6 8.0 5.5 0.9 18.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 3.9 1.7 0.2 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.2 8.1 13.9 19.2 20.9 17.5 10.8 4.1 0.9 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1
14-2 90.8% 3.8    3.0 0.7
13-3 65.2% 7.1    3.6 3.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 29.3% 5.1    1.5 2.6 1.0 0.1
11-5 6.5% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 9.1 6.8 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.9% 38.6% 38.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
14-2 4.1% 31.7% 31.7% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 2.8
13-3 10.8% 23.6% 23.6% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.7 8.3
12-4 17.5% 19.9% 19.9% 15.5 0.1 1.5 1.9 14.0
11-5 20.9% 17.3% 17.3% 15.8 0.0 0.8 2.8 17.3
10-6 19.2% 12.5% 12.5% 15.8 0.4 2.0 16.8
9-7 13.9% 8.8% 8.8% 15.9 0.1 1.2 12.7
8-8 8.1% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.6 7.5
7-9 3.2% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.2 3.0
6-10 1.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 1.1
5-11 0.2% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.1% 0.1
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 15.8% 15.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 5.1 9.4 84.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.4 8.8 41.2 47.1 2.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%