Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#292
Expected Predictive Rating-3.9#232
Pace67.3#228
Improvement+1.1#108

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#204
First Shot-1.3#206
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks-2.4#268
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#201
Freethrows-1.3#259
Improvement+4.6#1

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#338
First Shot-4.4#313
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#286
Layups/Dunks-4.0#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows-2.1#310
Improvement-3.5#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 5.9% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 31.9% 43.4% 21.6%
.500 or above in Conference 47.5% 53.7% 42.0%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.1% 3.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 4.5% 7.6%
First Four2.1% 2.2% 2.0%
First Round3.6% 4.7% 2.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 52 - 8
Quad 413 - 914 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 98   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 9%     0 - 1 -29.6 -14.8 -12.0
  Nov 09, 2024 90   @ Georgetown L 57-69 8%     0 - 2 -2.9 -9.9 +6.7
  Nov 12, 2024 354   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 62%     1 - 2 -3.9 -8.3 +4.8
  Nov 19, 2024 153   Drexel L 61-67 34%     1 - 3 -8.7 -6.7 -2.6
  Nov 23, 2024 105   Yale L 66-91 15%     1 - 4 -20.5 +3.3 -27.6
  Nov 24, 2024 194   Vermont W 67-66 31%     2 - 4 -0.6 +4.4 -4.9
  Dec 01, 2024 339   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 76%     3 - 4 -10.2 -3.5 -6.6
  Dec 04, 2024 288   Rider W 78-75 61%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -6.7 +5.3 -11.8
  Dec 08, 2024 266   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 35%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -9.7 +19.4 -29.0
  Dec 18, 2024 222   Central Connecticut St. L 68-69 47%    
  Dec 21, 2024 273   @ Monmouth L 71-75 36%    
  Dec 28, 2024 183   @ Columbia L 72-81 21%    
  Jan 03, 2025 217   @ Merrimack L 65-72 25%    
  Jan 10, 2025 257   Iona W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 12, 2025 236   @ Marist L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 16, 2025 314   Niagara W 73-68 67%    
  Jan 18, 2025 352   Canisius W 79-70 79%    
  Jan 23, 2025 316   @ Manhattan L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 25, 2025 217   Merrimack L 68-69 46%    
  Jan 31, 2025 238   @ Quinnipiac L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 02, 2025 257   @ Iona L 70-74 34%    
  Feb 06, 2025 236   Marist W 69-68 50%    
  Feb 08, 2025 277   Sacred Heart W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 14, 2025 221   @ St. Peter's L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 16, 2025 316   Manhattan W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 21, 2025 288   @ Rider L 68-71 39%    
  Feb 28, 2025 266   Mount St. Mary's W 75-73 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 277   @ Sacred Heart L 74-78 37%    
  Mar 06, 2025 283   @ Siena L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 238   Quinnipiac W 76-75 50%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 3.8 1.0 0.1 7.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.5 1.7 0.1 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.8 3.1 0.3 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.5 5.5 1.8 0.1 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.1 3.0 0.2 9.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.3 3.6 1.0 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.5 2.5 0.9 0.1 7.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.6 7.3 10.4 12.7 13.9 13.4 11.6 9.1 6.3 3.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 97.7% 0.3    0.2 0.0 0.0
16-4 87.0% 0.8    0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 60.4% 1.2    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 30.0% 1.2    0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 7.4% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 28.9% 28.9% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.3% 27.9% 27.9% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 0.9% 23.6% 23.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 2.1% 19.5% 19.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.7
14-6 3.9% 16.1% 16.1% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 3.2
13-7 6.3% 13.2% 13.2% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 5.4
12-8 9.1% 9.4% 9.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 8.3
11-9 11.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.1 0.6 10.9
10-10 13.4% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.4 13.0
9-11 13.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 13.6
8-12 12.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.6
7-13 10.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.3
6-14 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
5-15 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 2.4% 2.4
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 95.3 0.0%