Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.2#328
Expected Predictive Rating-8.7#306
Pace64.8#271
Improvement+0.6#157

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#301
First Shot-4.6#302
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#184
Layup/Dunks-4.8#335
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#37
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#187
Freethrows-2.9#331
Improvement-2.7#303

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#328
First Shot-4.9#324
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#248
Layups/Dunks-5.7#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#181
Freethrows-1.0#261
Improvement+3.3#35
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Home) - 43.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 8
Quad 410 - 1211 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   @ Rhode Island L 58-96 9%     0 - 1 -33.2 -16.7 -13.6
  Nov 09, 2024 73   @ Georgetown L 57-69 4%     0 - 2 -1.7 -7.1 +5.2
  Nov 12, 2024 355   @ New Hampshire W 62-56 54%     1 - 2 -5.2 -11.3 +6.5
  Nov 19, 2024 195   Drexel L 61-67 29%     1 - 3 -10.5 -6.1 -5.0
  Nov 23, 2024 70   Yale L 66-91 5%     1 - 4 -16.9 +5.1 -25.9
  Nov 24, 2024 230   Vermont W 67-66 26%     2 - 4 -2.6 +3.7 -6.2
  Dec 01, 2024 318   Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-74 56%     3 - 4 -7.8 +1.5 -9.3
  Dec 04, 2024 313   Rider W 78-75 55%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -8.6 +4.1 -12.5
  Dec 08, 2024 258   @ Mount St. Mary's L 94-101 24%     4 - 5 1 - 1 -9.8 +19.9 -29.6
  Dec 18, 2024 197   Central Connecticut St. L 63-64 29%     4 - 6 -5.6 -3.2 -2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 255   @ Monmouth L 74-88 24%     4 - 7 -16.7 -0.3 -16.4
  Dec 28, 2024 275   @ Columbia L 72-85 27%     4 - 8 -16.8 +0.3 -18.2
  Jan 03, 2025 214   @ Merrimack L 54-67 17%     4 - 9 1 - 2 -13.1 -6.2 -8.9
  Jan 10, 2025 259   Iona W 68-64 41%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -3.9 -4.2 +0.4
  Jan 12, 2025 223   @ Marist L 51-61 19%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -10.7 -10.5 -2.0
  Jan 16, 2025 319   Niagara W 70-66 56%     6 - 10 3 - 3 -7.8 -1.9 -5.4
  Jan 18, 2025 354   Canisius L 67-78 71%     6 - 11 3 - 4 -27.1 -10.4 -17.8
  Jan 23, 2025 263   @ Manhattan W 87-84 OT 24%     7 - 11 4 - 4 +0.1 +6.0 -6.0
  Jan 25, 2025 214   Merrimack L 54-75 31%     7 - 12 4 - 5 -26.2 -12.5 -15.3
  Jan 31, 2025 189   @ Quinnipiac L 69-81 15%     7 - 13 4 - 6 -11.1 -4.1 -6.5
  Feb 02, 2025 259   @ Iona L 64-87 24%     7 - 14 4 - 7 -25.8 -3.1 -23.9
  Feb 06, 2025 223   Marist W 59-56 33%     8 - 14 5 - 7 -2.8 -3.5 +1.2
  Feb 08, 2025 274   Sacred Heart L 71-77 45%     8 - 15 5 - 8 -14.9 -6.6 -8.4
  Feb 14, 2025 292   @ St. Peter's L 52-65 29%     8 - 16 5 - 9 -17.6 -16.1 -2.4
  Feb 16, 2025 263   Manhattan L 67-80 41%     8 - 17 5 - 10 -21.0 -8.0 -14.0
  Feb 21, 2025 313   @ Rider W 69-49 36%     9 - 17 6 - 10 +13.5 +1.3 +14.6
  Feb 28, 2025 258   Mount St. Mary's L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 02, 2025 274   @ Sacred Heart L 72-78 26%    
  Mar 06, 2025 228   @ Siena L 65-74 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 189   Quinnipiac L 70-76 30%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.4 6th
7th 1.0 0.4 1.3 7th
8th 1.6 3.8 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.1 6.7 17.1 2.3 26.1 9th
10th 4.9 24.2 6.9 0.0 36.0 10th
11th 14.2 9.4 0.3 24.0 11th
12th 6.3 0.4 6.7 12th
13th 13th
Total 25.4 40.8 25.8 7.1 0.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 7.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 7.1
8-12 25.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.2 25.7
7-13 40.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.2 40.6
6-14 25.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.5 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 20.0%