Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#195
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#222
Pace60.5#350
Improvement-1.1#243

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#250
First Shot-4.8#308
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#73
Layup/Dunks+0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#215
Freethrows-4.2#358
Improvement-1.5#257

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#147
First Shot+0.8#149
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#174
Layups/Dunks-4.0#320
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#172
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#82
Freethrows+2.1#52
Improvement+0.4#167
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.4% 5.3% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.5
.500 or above 54.3% 76.7% 31.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.2% 54.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round4.2% 5.2% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 112 - 12
Quad 414 - 416 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 239   Colgate W 73-56 68%     1 - 0 +10.2 -1.2 +12.4
  Nov 12, 2024 155   @ Temple L 61-69 31%     1 - 1 -5.0 -7.1 +1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 236   La Salle L 68-71 67%     1 - 2 -9.6 -6.8 -2.8
  Nov 19, 2024 328   @ Fairfield W 67-61 71%     2 - 2 -1.7 -3.5 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 204   @ Fordham W 73-71 42%     3 - 2 +2.2 +5.6 -3.2
  Nov 25, 2024 153   Purdue Fort Wayne L 81-87 40%     3 - 3 -5.4 +13.0 -18.9
  Nov 26, 2024 360   Chicago St. W 83-71 90%     4 - 3 -3.7 +11.6 -14.4
  Dec 02, 2024 161   Bryant L 73-78 52%     4 - 4 -7.5 -1.7 -5.7
  Dec 07, 2024 260   Penn W 60-47 63%     5 - 4 +7.6 -12.5 +21.1
  Dec 14, 2024 267   @ Albany W 77-70 54%     6 - 4 +4.0 +6.1 -1.8
  Dec 17, 2024 305   @ Howard W 68-65 65%     7 - 4 -2.8 -7.9 +5.3
  Dec 21, 2024 62   Penn St. L 64-75 22%     7 - 5 -5.0 -0.5 -5.6
  Jan 02, 2025 183   @ Campbell L 54-57 37%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -1.7 -15.0 +13.3
  Jan 04, 2025 316   @ N.C. A&T W 68-59 67%     8 - 6 1 - 1 +2.4 -5.7 +8.3
  Jan 09, 2025 320   @ Stony Brook W 67-51 68%     9 - 6 2 - 1 +9.1 +6.7 +6.7
  Jan 11, 2025 157   Towson L 82-93 OT 51%     9 - 7 2 - 2 -13.1 +5.6 -18.1
  Jan 16, 2025 175   Elon L 54-65 56%     9 - 8 2 - 3 -14.4 -9.6 -7.2
  Jan 20, 2025 227   Hofstra W 60-55 66%     10 - 8 3 - 3 -1.1 -4.3 +3.8
  Jan 23, 2025 212   @ Northeastern L 61-70 43%     10 - 9 3 - 4 -9.1 -3.0 -7.3
  Jan 25, 2025 244   Delaware W 67-54 69%     11 - 9 4 - 4 +6.0 -5.5 +12.9
  Jan 30, 2025 255   @ Monmouth L 97-104 2OT 53%     11 - 10 4 - 5 -9.7 +9.5 -18.3
  Feb 01, 2025 157   @ Towson L 54-55 32%     11 - 11 4 - 6 +2.0 +0.8 +0.9
  Feb 06, 2025 216   William & Mary W 86-66 64%     12 - 11 5 - 6 +14.5 +9.1 +5.5
  Feb 08, 2025 116   UNC Wilmington L 79-81 2OT 41%     12 - 12 5 - 7 -1.7 -5.7 +4.2
  Feb 13, 2025 250   @ Hampton L 58-63 52%     12 - 13 5 - 8 -7.3 -7.2 -0.8
  Feb 15, 2025 216   @ William & Mary L 59-72 44%     12 - 14 5 - 9 -13.4 -6.3 -9.3
  Feb 20, 2025 244   @ Delaware W 78-74 50%     13 - 14 6 - 9 +2.0 +1.9 +0.2
  Feb 22, 2025 143   College of Charleston L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 27, 2025 250   Hampton W 67-62 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 255   Monmouth W 70-64 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 3.0 3.0 6th
7th 1.8 17.8 19.6 7th
8th 0.5 22.6 6.3 29.4 8th
9th 8.5 17.7 26.2 9th
10th 2.4 14.8 2.6 19.8 10th
11th 1.8 0.3 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 4.2 24.1 44.6 27.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 27.2% 5.7% 5.7% 14.4 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 25.6
8-10 44.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.7 42.6
7-11 24.1% 3.0% 3.0% 15.8 0.2 0.6 23.4
6-12 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 95.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 14.4 3.2 55.8 38.5 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.6%
Lose Out 1.7%