Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#156
Expected Predictive Rating+4.6#103
Pace63.8#314
Improvement-1.7#285

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#246
First Shot+0.4#159
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#338
Layup/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#99
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement-3.2#358

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#97
First Shot+1.9#119
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#103
Layups/Dunks+2.0#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#290
Freethrows+0.2#174
Improvement+1.5#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.3% 13.1% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 86.7% 92.9% 79.4%
.500 or above in Conference 81.7% 85.1% 77.7%
Conference Champion 15.0% 17.5% 12.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.7% 1.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.3% 13.1% 9.3%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 54.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 38 - 68 - 8
Quad 410 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 257   Iona W 90-76 79%     1 - 0 +5.5 +11.7 -6.7
  Nov 13, 2024 117   Seton Hall W 49-48 39%     2 - 0 +4.0 -7.6 +11.7
  Nov 16, 2024 200   @ Massachusetts W 75-71 OT 46%     3 - 0 +5.2 +0.1 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2024 65   @ Florida St. L 61-79 14%     3 - 1 -6.5 -4.4 -2.3
  Nov 22, 2024 6   @ Houston L 44-80 3%     3 - 2 -14.0 -11.9 -6.0
  Nov 29, 2024 197   Rice W 68-63 OT 57%     4 - 2 +3.3 -8.1 +11.2
  Nov 30, 2024 303   Tarleton St. L 59-61 77%     4 - 3 -9.6 -6.8 -3.2
  Dec 01, 2024 111   Arkansas St. W 68-66 36%     5 - 3 +5.7 +1.9 +3.9
  Dec 09, 2024 196   @ Norfolk St. W 80-67 45%     6 - 3 +14.3 +13.7 +1.8
  Dec 15, 2024 118   Temple L 42-60 51%     6 - 4 -18.1 -27.2 +7.6
  Dec 29, 2024 238   @ Quinnipiac W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 02, 2025 225   William & Mary W 76-70 73%    
  Jan 04, 2025 158   @ Northeastern L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 09, 2025 122   College of Charleston W 70-69 52%    
  Jan 11, 2025 142   UNC Wilmington W 68-66 58%    
  Jan 16, 2025 209   @ Towson L 59-60 48%    
  Jan 20, 2025 153   @ Drexel L 62-65 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 207   Delaware W 74-69 69%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   Campbell W 69-60 79%    
  Jan 30, 2025 149   @ Elon L 64-67 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 269   @ Campbell W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 06, 2025 158   Northeastern W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 309   Stony Brook W 71-60 85%    
  Feb 13, 2025 225   @ William & Mary W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 270   @ Hampton W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 20, 2025 273   Monmouth W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 22, 2025 207   @ Delaware L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 27, 2025 309   @ Stony Brook W 68-63 68%    
  Mar 01, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 78-66 85%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.5 4.1 2.3 0.7 0.1 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.5 3.4 1.0 0.1 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 4.0 0.7 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.5 1.1 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 4.4 1.7 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.4 0.2 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.7 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.9 0.8 0.0 3.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.3 7.9 11.1 13.5 14.6 14.0 11.8 8.4 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
16-2 96.0% 2.3    2.0 0.3 0.0
15-3 80.5% 4.1    2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 53.4% 4.5    2.1 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.5% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 8.4 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.3% 40.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 0.7% 37.9% 37.9% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 2.4% 30.8% 30.8% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.7
15-3 5.2% 27.7% 27.7% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.7
14-4 8.4% 21.6% 21.6% 13.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 6.5
13-5 11.8% 18.0% 18.0% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 9.7
12-6 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 12.0
11-7 14.6% 9.6% 9.6% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 13.2
10-8 13.5% 6.2% 6.2% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 12.6
9-9 11.1% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 10.7
8-10 7.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.7
7-11 5.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
6-12 2.9% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.9
5-13 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.0 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 11.3% 11.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.1 4.0 1.6 0.1 88.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.2 4.5 4.5 59.1 27.3 4.5