Campbell
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#269
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#317
Pace66.3#258
Improvement-1.5#278

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#295
First Shot-0.9#195
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#339
Layup/Dunks-0.2#196
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#175
Freethrows+0.7#141
Improvement-0.3#204

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#213
First Shot-5.6#341
After Offensive Rebounds+4.1#4
Layups/Dunks-6.8#355
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#285
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#73
Freethrows-0.4#222
Improvement-1.2#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.7% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 8.5% 13.1% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 25.7% 30.2% 21.1%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 17.2% 13.9% 20.5%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
First Round1.0% 1.4% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 49.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 93   @ Virginia L 56-65 9%     0 - 1 -0.2 +1.7 -3.6
  Nov 10, 2024 335   St. Francis (PA) L 64-65 77%     0 - 2 -14.5 -13.9 -0.7
  Nov 17, 2024 301   @ Navy W 86-66 45%     1 - 2 +15.5 +8.5 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 39   @ Ohio St. L 60-104 4%     1 - 3 -29.2 -8.6 -18.8
  Nov 24, 2024 268   @ Evansville L 53-66 38%     1 - 4 -15.7 -17.3 +0.8
  Nov 30, 2024 331   @ Green Bay W 72-66 56%     2 - 4 -1.2 -7.3 +6.0
  Dec 04, 2024 274   Coastal Carolina L 57-58 62%     2 - 5 -10.0 -13.5 +3.4
  Dec 12, 2024 345   @ The Citadel W 86-58 61%     3 - 5 +19.3 +17.7 +4.1
  Dec 15, 2024 349   @ Morgan St. L 76-86 63%     3 - 6 -19.2 -2.9 -16.3
  Dec 18, 2024 220   Longwood W 69-68 50%    
  Dec 29, 2024 18   @ North Carolina L 64-87 1%    
  Jan 02, 2025 153   Drexel L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 04, 2025 142   @ UNC Wilmington L 65-75 18%    
  Jan 09, 2025 270   @ Hampton L 65-68 39%    
  Jan 11, 2025 149   @ Elon L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 16, 2025 122   College of Charleston L 70-75 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 273   Monmouth W 71-68 61%    
  Jan 23, 2025 309   @ Stony Brook L 68-69 48%    
  Jan 25, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 60-69 21%    
  Jan 30, 2025 225   William & Mary W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 01, 2025 156   Hofstra L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 06, 2025 149   Elon L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 313   N.C. A&T W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 13, 2025 158   @ Northeastern L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 207   @ Delaware L 71-77 28%    
  Feb 20, 2025 313   @ N.C. A&T L 75-76 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 209   Towson L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 142   UNC Wilmington L 68-72 37%    
  Mar 01, 2025 122   @ College of Charleston L 67-78 15%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.1 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.9 0.8 0.0 6.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.5 2.3 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.3 0.5 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.4 1.3 0.0 10.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.0 2.6 0.2 12.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.6 13th
14th 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 9.9 14th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.2 6.2 9.6 12.8 14.6 14.2 12.5 10.1 6.9 4.5 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 79.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 63.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 20.3% 20.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 12.6% 12.6% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 1.2% 11.7% 11.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-6 2.4% 8.8% 8.8% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.2
11-7 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.3
10-8 6.9% 2.8% 2.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.7
9-9 10.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.9
8-10 12.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.3
7-11 14.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.2
6-12 14.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 12.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.8
4-14 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-15 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-16 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%