The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.7#345
Expected Predictive Rating-16.9#356
Pace64.3#302
Improvement-4.9#358

Offense
Total Offense-6.9#350
First Shot-7.5#351
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#149
Layup/Dunks-1.8#249
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#178
Freethrows-4.8#361
Improvement-0.6#241

Defense
Total Defense-4.8#321
First Shot-4.6#319
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#197
Layups/Dunks-3.0#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#340
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#58
Freethrows-2.2#312
Improvement-4.3#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 1.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 3.2% 9.0% 3.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 45.4% 30.4% 45.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 44 - 95 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 150   @ Boston College L 60-69 9%     0 - 1 -5.6 -9.3 +3.4
  Nov 11, 2024 336   Stetson W 74-52 58%     1 - 1 +8.2 -4.1 +13.2
  Nov 17, 2024 313   N.C. A&T L 73-82 50%     1 - 2 -20.6 -6.4 -14.2
  Nov 20, 2024 122   College of Charleston L 61-76 15%     1 - 3 -15.5 -9.5 -6.7
  Dec 12, 2024 269   Campbell L 58-86 39%     1 - 4 -36.8 -12.5 -26.8
  Dec 16, 2024 342   @ Central Arkansas L 71-73 37%     1 - 5 -10.3 -6.0 -4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 57   @ Vanderbilt L 61-85 1%    
  Jan 01, 2025 109   @ Samford L 68-87 4%    
  Jan 04, 2025 178   Chattanooga L 66-74 23%    
  Jan 08, 2025 126   Furman L 61-72 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 147   @ East Tennessee St. L 60-75 8%    
  Jan 15, 2025 157   @ UNC Greensboro L 57-72 9%    
  Jan 18, 2025 350   VMI W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 22, 2025 163   @ Wofford L 61-75 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 308   Western Carolina L 68-69 47%    
  Jan 29, 2025 229   @ Mercer L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 01, 2025 109   Samford L 71-84 13%    
  Feb 05, 2025 157   UNC Greensboro L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 08, 2025 350   @ VMI L 68-70 41%    
  Feb 12, 2025 163   Wofford L 64-72 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 308   @ Western Carolina L 65-72 28%    
  Feb 19, 2025 229   Mercer L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 22, 2025 178   @ Chattanooga L 63-77 11%    
  Feb 26, 2025 126   @ Furman L 58-75 7%    
  Mar 01, 2025 147   East Tennessee St. L 63-72 21%    
Projected Record 5 - 20 4 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.1 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.3 7.0 5.3 1.8 0.2 19.6 8th
9th 0.5 4.6 10.3 10.8 5.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 33.0 9th
10th 3.2 9.0 11.0 7.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 32.9 10th
Total 3.2 9.5 15.6 18.3 17.5 13.6 9.7 6.0 3.4 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 80.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 16.7% 0.0    0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 4.0% 4.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.8% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
8-10 3.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.3
7-11 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.0
6-12 9.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.7
5-13 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.6
4-14 17.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.5
3-15 18.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.3
2-16 15.6% 15.6
1-17 9.5% 9.5
0-18 3.2% 3.2
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%