The Citadel
Southern
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.9#292
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#255
Pace64.3#322
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-5.3#329
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#221
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.9% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 23.0% 30.2% 11.1%
.500 or above in Conference 26.2% 30.9% 18.6%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 15.2% 12.4% 19.8%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round2.0% 2.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 62.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 72 - 10
Quad 49 - 710 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 144   @ Boston College L 60-69 15%     0 - 1 -4.9 -8.2 +3.0
  Nov 11, 2024 322   Stetson W 74-52 69%     1 - 1 +9.9 -2.9 +13.7
  Nov 17, 2024 300   N.C. A&T W 72-69 62%    
  Nov 20, 2024 100   College of Charleston L 71-80 21%    
  Dec 12, 2024 304   Campbell W 67-64 62%    
  Dec 16, 2024 346   @ Central Arkansas W 70-68 58%    
  Dec 18, 2024 83   @ Vanderbilt L 62-79 6%    
  Jan 01, 2025 141   @ Samford L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 04, 2025 179   Chattanooga L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 08, 2025 148   Furman L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 190   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-71 23%    
  Jan 15, 2025 174   @ UNC Greensboro L 60-69 21%    
  Jan 18, 2025 357   VMI W 78-68 81%    
  Jan 22, 2025 178   @ Wofford L 62-71 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 263   Western Carolina W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 29, 2025 249   @ Mercer L 65-71 32%    
  Feb 01, 2025 141   Samford L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 05, 2025 174   UNC Greensboro L 63-66 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 357   @ VMI W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 12, 2025 178   Wofford L 65-68 40%    
  Feb 15, 2025 263   @ Western Carolina L 62-67 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 249   Mercer W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 179   @ Chattanooga L 63-72 22%    
  Feb 26, 2025 148   @ Furman L 63-74 18%    
  Mar 01, 2025 190   East Tennessee St. L 66-68 42%    
Projected Record 10 - 15 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.8 3.1 0.4 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.8 3.8 0.6 0.0 14.4 7th
8th 0.3 2.1 5.5 6.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 18.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 4.8 7.0 5.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 22.3 9th
10th 0.4 1.8 2.9 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.0 9.4 10th
Total 0.4 2.0 4.4 7.7 10.4 12.5 13.0 12.4 10.9 8.8 6.7 4.7 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 86.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1
14-4 63.7% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 31.6% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.1% 42.9% 42.9% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 29.7% 29.7% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.8% 19.1% 19.1% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.7% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-6 3.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.7
11-7 4.7% 7.1% 7.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 4.3
10-8 6.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.3
9-9 8.8% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.5
8-10 10.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.7
7-11 12.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.3
6-12 13.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-13 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
4-14 10.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-15 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.7
2-16 4.4% 4.4
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%